Novo outlook hike falls flat as Wegovy pill sales fail to impress
Novo Nordisk's Financial Performance and Market Response
By Stine Jacobsen, Maggie Fick and Bhanvi Satija
COPENHAGEN, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Novo Nordisk raised its full-year profit and sales outlook on Tuesday but disappointed investors who focused instead on a narrow sales miss for its new Wegovy pill and a trial setback for its next-generation obesity drug CagriSema.
The Danish drugmaker's U.S.-listed shares fell 6%.
Novo is battling to claw back lost ground from rival Eli Lilly in the lucrative obesity drug market, with investors looking for signs that a recent turnaround can last and that its new Wegovy pill can support longer-term growth.
Novo, in a surprise early earnings release, raised its outlook for sales and operating profit growth. Both are now seen in a range of zero to minus 6% at constant exchange rates versus 2025, up from a previous range of minus 12% to minus 4%.
Wegovy Pill Sales and Market Expectations
Some analysts, however, pointed to a marginal miss for sales of its Wegovy pill, which was launched earlier this year and has restored some gloss after tough years when Novo's injectable weight-loss drug fell behind Lilly in the key U.S. market.
The closely watched sales figure for the pill came in at 3.22 billion Danish crowns ($497 million), slightly below the 3.3 billion crowns analysts had expected, dampening hopes that its strong showing so far would beat expectations.
"The only surprise I see is that oral Wegovy was just in line with expectations," said Markus Manns, portfolio manager at investor Union Investment.
"Investors will focus on whether Novo can sustain leadership in the oral obesity market, in particular in light of Lilly ramping up marketing efforts in the third quarter."
Pill Sales Meet Expectations but Fail to Excite
The pill sales data "removes some excitement", Jefferies analysts said, pointing to potential pricing pressure from deep discounts offered in the United States.
Barclays said that, despite the strong second quarter and outlook, a "slightly soft" Wegovy pill performance, short-term investor positioning and the CagriSema trial explained the share fall.
Novo, a key driver of Denmark's economy, reported an adjusted operating profit of 33.4 billion Danish crowns in the second quarter, up 11% year-on-year, against a mean forecast of 28.74 billion in a company-compiled poll.
Wegovy Pill's Impact on Novo's Growth
Wegovy Pill Has Given Novo a Boost
Investor focus is on the pill because Novo has been getting a major boost from the oral treatment this year after its injectable GLP-1 weight-loss treatment lost ground in recent years.
CEO Mike Doustdar, who took the helm at Novo a year ago, has sought to steady the group after stalling sales and a sliding share price wiped billions from its market valuation. He's pushed through tough job cuts and pressed hard on the pill, while taking a more aggressive stance against Lilly.
The two firms are fierce rivals in an obesity drug market analysts expect to be worth over $100 billion a year by 2030.
Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook
Investors are watching for signs Novo can compete beyond its current medicines through new pipeline results, acquisition deals or a sustained recovery in prescriptions.
BMO analyst Evan Seigerman said that an overall strong showing was "overshadowed by questions around the modest miss for the Wegovy pill and a softer print for U.S. injectable Wegovy sales", although he added that the pill miss was due to temporary factors such as wholesalers working through inventory.
Pipeline Worries and Competitive Landscape
Pipeline Worries Loom
Investor concerns were compounded by new data for Novo's drug CagriSema. In a head-to-head trial of type 2 diabetes patients, CagriSema matched Lilly's tirzepatide on weight loss after 68 weeks, but failed to beat it on blood sugar control.
"They are confirming this non-inferiority ... which really just means that it's no better than Lilly's products," said Jyske Bank analyst Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen.
He said that while the trial results should not have shocked the market given similar disappointments flagged in February, the lack of a clear edge triggered fresh selling.
Need for Competitive Successor Drugs
Sydbank analyst Soren Lontoft Hansen said the data highlighted Novo's need for a competitive successor drug before its blockbuster semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and diabetes treatment Ozempic, eventually faces patent expiries.
Setback in Diversification Efforts
Novo's prospects for diversifying beyond obesity and diabetes drugs suffered a setback last week, when its experimental cardiovascular drug ziltivekimab failed to reduce the risk of major heart events in a late-stage trial.
($1 = 6.4840 Danish crowns)
(Reporting by Stine Jacobsen, Maggie Fick and Bhanvi Satija, editing by Terje Solsvik, Adam Jourdan and Edmund Klamann)
