Macron Faces Key Test Over French Central Bank Leadership Before 2027 Election
Political and Institutional Implications of Macron's Central Bank Nomination
By Elizabeth Pineau and Leigh Thomas
PARIS, May 14 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron faces a test next week when lawmakers decide whether to approve his former chief of staff to run the central bank, a nomination some critics say is part of a campaign to protect key institutions from a possible far-right election win in 2027.
A rejection of Emmanuel Moulin would represent an embarrassing defeat, underlining the unpopular president's lame-duck status less than a year before his second term ends.
Meanwhile, approval would likely fuel rivals' accusations that Macron is installing loyalists to top jobs who can ensure his legacy and hedge against possible National Rally (RN) victory in the next presidential vote.
"The president is right to propose (Moulin's) appointment, as it is technically justified, but he is taking a political risk should the proposal be rejected by parliament, given that he no longer has a majority," said political analyst William Thay of think tank Le Millenaire.
Moulin's Credentials and the Parliamentary Approval Process
Experienced Economic Policymaker
MOULIN IS EXPERIENCED ECONOMIC POLICYMAKER
Opponents on the finance committees of both houses could block Moulin on Wednesday if three-fifths of them vote against. The votes in both houses will be added up and Moulin will be approved if the nays do not surpass 60% of the combined total.
The composition of the committees, with 72 members in the lower house committee and 49 in the Senate, mirrors that of the two chambers. Macron and his allies do not hold a majority in either chamber.
While resistance is expected in the fractious lower house committee, the Senate committee - dominated by the conservative Republicains - will be decisive. Some lawmakers warn the margin could be tight, with defections possible among the Republicains whose support Moulin needs.
Few dispute Moulin's credentials as one of the most experienced policymakers in France's economic establishment.
But Macron's push has sharpened scrutiny of his independence, a sensitive issue for a central bank post meant to be insulated from politics.
"Have you seen an Elysee chief of staff named to head the Bank of France before? That's never happened," said Eric Coquerel, the hard-left head of the finance committee in the lower house.
Question of Central Bank Independence
QUESTION OF CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE
Coquerel said most left-wing parties in the lower house would oppose Moulin, though the Socialists have yet to settle their position, while non-Macron centrists could split.
There is a precedent for such a nomination. Macron's predecessor Francois Hollande in 2014 named his chief of staff Pierre-Rene Lemas to lead public lender Caisse des Depots, one of France's biggest financial institutions.
Moulin faces question and answer sessions in both houses on Wednesday before the committees vote. The Senate session will be closed to the press and the lower house has not said if it will be open.
Socialist lawmaker Philippe Brun said Moulin had agreed to meet colleagues about priorities ranging from bank regulation, to fighting inflation and his independence.
In a questionnaire sent on Friday to Moulin, Brun asked: "How can the independence of the Bank of France ... be guaranteed, given your very recent political roles within the government?"
Contacted by Reuters, Moulin said he would reserve his answers for lawmakers. Brun did not immediately respond to a request for comment on how the meeting with Moulin went on Wednesday.
Political Reactions and Broader Implications
Far Right's Response to Macron's Appointments
FAR RIGHTS SAY 'ENOUGH IS ENOUGH'
As governor of the 226-year-old Bank of France, Moulin would sit on the European Central Bank's rate-setting governing council and be responsible for regulating French banks.
Even before he nominated Moulin, Macron's rivals were upset by his appointments of allies including Richard Ferrand to head the constitutional court that vets legislation and Amelie de Montchalin to lead the audit office that certifies the public accounts.
RN lawmakers say that the nominations are aimed at putting in place anti-RN allies in case they take power in next year's presidential election.
"After Ferrand and Montchalin, we're going to say enough is enough," said RN lawmaker Philippe Ballard.
Polls suggest the second round of next year's presidential election is almost certain to feature the anti-immigrant RN, which has pledged to rip up much of Macron's social and economic legacy.
Senate's Role and the Split Among Conservatives
Ferrand was approved by a single vote last year in the law committees of both houses, with RN lawmakers abstaining, while Montchalin's appointment did not require parliamentary approval.
The Senate will be key for Moulin, who has served under both conservative and Macron governments, with doubts over whether some Republicains break ranks to oppose his nomination.
"It's a safe bet that Republicains MPs will be split between those who believe it's better to maintain a respectable profile on the right and those who want to punish the betrayal of one of their own who left them in 2017 to serve Macron's camp," Thay said.
(Reporting by Elizabeth Pineau; Additional reporting and Writing by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Alison Williams)
