Russia Lowers Natural Gas Output and Export Forecasts Amid EU Shift
Revised Forecasts and Impacts on Russia's Natural Gas Sector
MOSCOW, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Russia's economy ministry expects the country to produce and export less natural gas this year than previously forecast, according to a draft government document seen by Reuters, as Europe prepares to wind up its final Russian gas purchases.
Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Russia had also downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low and revised the fuel export outlook for this year and next due to the war with Ukraine.
The forecasts will be used to update the federal budget to 2029.
Background: EU's Shift Away from Russian Gas
Natural gas production and export forecasts have been revised down against the background of ruptured economic and political ties with the West over the Ukraine war and the European Union's plans to stop all purchases of Russian gas from next year.
Production and Export Projections
According to the draft forecast, natural gas production in Russia this year will amount to 683.1 billion cubic metres, 5.3 bcm below that expected in a May projection, but still above the 662.7 bcm produced in 2025.
Kremlin's Response and LNG Export Trends
The Kremlin said this month that Europe was hurting itself by buying expensive gas on the spot market instead of opting for cheaper Russian supplies. Moscow maintains it is ready to restart gas supplies to Europe, including via the Nord Stream undersea pipelines, one leg of which remains intact after the blasts in September 2022.
Exports of seaborne liquefied natural gas from Russia are seen rising to 35 million tons this year from 30.3 million tons in 2025, but that is still 5.3 million tons lower than previously expected.
LNG exports are seen continuing to rise in coming years, but at a slower pace than previously forecast, the document showed.
Historical Context and Export Decline
Russia's gas exports to Europe tumbled 44% last year to just 18 bcm, the lowest since the mid-1970s following the closure of the Ukrainian transit route, according to Reuters calculations.
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe peaked at around 180 bcm per year in 2018-2019.
Forecast Table: Russia's Gas and Oil Projections
Below is a table with the economy ministry's new forecasts. Previous estimates, from May 2026, are in brackets:
2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
actual
Gas price outside 324.0 402.9( 341.1( 289.0( 272.5
ex-Soviet Union, $ 336.3) 275.7) 267.8) (268.7)
per 1,000 cubic
metres
Gas price for China, 240.3 247. 251. 247. 246.4
$ per 1,000 cubic 9 3 8 (235.6)
metres (258.8 (223.9 (229.7
) ) )
Gas output, bcm 662.7 683.1( 696.1( 710.5( 740.1
688.4) 711.3) 731.9) (750.4)
Pipeline gas exports, 115.5 117.5( 120.5( 115.0( 119.5
bcm 115.5) 125.5) 125.0) (127.5)
Including outside 78.2 77.0 77.5 72.0 76.5
ex-Soviet Union, bcm (75.0) (82.5) (82.0) (84.5)
LNG exports, million 30.3 35.0 39.5 50.1(5 64.5
tons (40.3) (46.9) 8.4) (66.2)
Oil and gas exports, 202.5 219.4 194.1 192.0 193.0
million U.S. dollars (220.1 (193.4 (200.6 (203.0)
) ) )
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
