Dollar likely to weaken over long-term due to U.S. fiscal dynamics, JPMorgan Asset Management exec says - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Dollar likely to weaken over long-term due to U.S. fiscal dynamics, JPMorgan Asset Management exec says

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 28, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: May 28, 2026

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JPMorgan: U.S. Dollar May Weaken Long-Term Amid Rising U.S. Debt Concerns

JPMorgan Asset Management's Outlook on the U.S. Dollar

Current Performance of the U.S. Dollar

LONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - The dollar will likely weaken over the long-term given concerns over elevated U.S. debt levels, the EMEA CEO of JPMorgan Asset Management said on Thursday.

The dollar, the world's No.1 reserve currency, has risen roughly 1.8% since the start of the Iran war in late February given its safe-haven credentials.

Expert Insights from JPMorgan

Comments from Patrick Thomson

"The hegemony of the U.S. Treasury is still alive and well...but we look at the fiscal balance and trade and the ability to pay back that debt," said Patrick Thomson, CEO EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management at a panel at an ICMA conference in London.

Long-Term Outlook for the Dollar

"There is an argument to say over the long term the U.S. dollar will weaken. The dynamic of the fiscal position in the U.S. is creating that level of debt that is not sustainable in the long run," said Thomson.

Potential Safe Havens in Europe

Europe could be a harbour for safe assets, he added.

Reporting and Editorial Credits

(Reporting by Yoruk Bacheli and Nell Mackenzie; Writing by Dhara Ranasinghe; editing by Alun John)

Key Takeaways

  • Patrick Thomson (JPMorgan AM EMEA CEO) sees long-term dollar weakness driven by unsustainable U.S. fiscal dynamics and mounting debt levels.
  • The dollar’s recent ~1.8% rise amid the Iran war underscores its enduring safe‑haven status—even as its structural dominance faces pressure.
  • Europe may emerge as an alternative hub for safe assets, stepping into roles traditionally dominated by U.S. Treasuries.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does JPMorgan Asset Management expect the U.S. dollar to weaken long-term?
JPMorgan cites high U.S. debt levels and concerns about fiscal sustainability as factors likely to weaken the dollar over time.
What recent event caused the U.S. dollar to rise?
The dollar rose about 1.8% since the start of the Iran war, reflecting its safe-haven status.
Who provided the outlook on the U.S. dollar at JPMorgan Asset Management?
Patrick Thomson, CEO EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management, shared the outlook at an ICMA conference in London.
What alternative does JPMorgan suggest for safe assets?
The report suggests that Europe could be a harbour for safe assets.
What is driving concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. dollar?
The growing U.S. fiscal deficit and elevated debt levels are key concerns behind the sustainability of the dollar.

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