Citi Cuts Bitcoin and Ether 12-Month Forecasts as ETF Flows Turn Negative
Citi's Revised Outlook on Major Cryptocurrencies
By Rashika Singh
July 1 (Reuters) - Citigroup slashed its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether, saying weakening investor appetite, negative exchange-traded fund flows and a lack of progress on U.S. digital asset legislation have hurt the outlook for the two largest cryptocurrencies.
Lowered Price Targets for Bitcoin and Ether
The brokerage, in a note dated Tuesday, lowered its target for bitcoin to $82,000 from $112,000 and trimmed its ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175.
Current Market Performance
Bitcoin was last trading at $58,864.27, its weakest level since September 2024, having halved in value from an all-time high of $126,223.18 in October last year. Ether was last at $1,585.63, its lowest since April 2025.
Factors Behind the Forecast Revision
Crypto markets have struggled this year amid heightened market volatility, investor hype around big expected IPOs and persistent ETF outflows that track the assets.
Bearish Sentiment and Bear-Case Scenario
Both cryptocurrencies are trading below their long-term moving-day averages, reflecting bearish sentiment. Citi's bear-case scenario, which assumes recessionary macroeconomic conditions and continued ETF outflows, values bitcoin at $53,000 and ether at $1,094 over the next year.
ETF Flows and Investor Adoption
Citi said its revision was driven by its decision to cut its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption to zero from $10 billion.
"ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently," it said, adding that bitcoin ETF flows were down about $3.3 billion so far this year. The brokerage expects broader investor adoption to remain on hold until a new catalyst emerges.
Regulatory and Market Sentiment Challenges
It also said that slow progress on U.S. crypto legislation and concerns over potential bitcoin selling by digital asset treasury companies have hit investor sentiment, with the weakness coinciding with a rotation into AI-related assets.
(Reporting by Rashika Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema)
