Russian Central Bank Holds Steady as Cash Withdrawals Surge on Payment Fears
By Elena Fabrichnaya
Central Bank Response to Rising Cash Withdrawals
MOSCOW, June 26 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank said on Friday there was no need for extra measures to stabilise the banking system, despite a rise in cash withdrawals that some have blamed on worries about internet shutdowns and possible disruptions to payment systems.
Surge in Cash Withdrawals Amid Payment System Concerns
There has been an increase in customers taking out cash in recent months, as people fear payment terminals might stop working amid intermittent online blackouts that authorities say have been imposed to disrupt the navigation of Ukrainian drones.
The central bank — which did not refer to the web shutdowns — told Reuters it was giving banks enough support to cope with a resulting liquidity deficit.
Impact on Banking System Liquidity
The amount of cash being held outside banks has grown by 17.5% year-on-year to over 19 trillion roubles ($243.14 billion) so far this year, according to central bank data.
That has put pressure on the banking system which relies on deposits to fund itself. A widening liquidity deficit reached 2 trillion roubles in June, the data showed.
Central Bank Measures and Market Response
“The current liquidity deficit level does not require additional measures. The Bank of Russia is providing the necessary volume of liquidity to banks, including taking into account demand for cash,” the central bank said.
Following its decision to cut the key rate by a very cautious 25 basis points on June 19, demand for liquidity at this week’s central bank repo auction exceeded the offered amount by more than one third.
Challenges and Vulnerabilities in the Banking Sector
Growth in cash demand this year has outpaced growth in bank deposits, which have been a key source of liquidity for banks during the period of a high key interest rate as the central bank fought inflation.
Some Western as well as Russian economists are highlighting vulnerabilities in the Russian banking system as the share of bad loans is growing and economic growth as well as credit are slowing down with interest rates staying high.
Tax Policy and Cash Demand
Sberbank’s First Deputy CEO Alexander Vedyakhin told Reuters in an interview this month that government tax hikes at the start of the year, introduced to balance the budget, were also driving demand for cash.
Companies, especially small businesses, often use cash payments to dodge taxes. Vedyakhin said that the surge in cash demand is reversing efforts to develop digital payments in the banking system, fostered over many years.
Liquidity Outlook and Regulatory Compliance
The central bank said money market rates are staying close to its key rate, suggesting that liquidity volumes are in line with banks’ needs. It estimates the deficit could grow to 3.6 trillion roubles by the end of the year.
However, the central bank said in a recent report that major banks were observing the regulatory requirements with a comfortable buffer.
Expert Opinions on Future Stability
“Banks have enough assets they can use to obtain funding from the central bank. Moreover, the situation could reverse if macroeconomic conditions improve and the payments infrastructure stabilises,” Finam brokerage analyst Igor Dodonov said.
($1 = 78.1455 roubles)
(Writing by Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Andrew Heavens)
