Bulgaria Votes as pro-Russian Former President Leads the Polls

Bulgaria Votes in 2024 as Pro-Russian Radev Leads to Promise Change

Political Landscape and Election Dynamics in Bulgaria

By Alex Lefkowitz and Edward McAllister

Background to the 2024 Parliamentary Election

SOFIA, April 19 (Reuters) - Bulgarians will vote on Sunday in the eighth parliamentary election in five years, with the clear frontrunner, pro-Russian former president Rumen Radev, promising to end a spiral of weak, short-lived governments and stamp out widespread corruption. 

Radev, a eurosceptic former fighter pilot who opposes military support for Ukraine's war effort against Moscow, stepped down from the presidency in January to run in the election, which comes after mass protests forced out the previous government in December. 

Key Issues for Bulgarian Voters

A slick social media campaign, deep coffers, and a pledge of stability have boosted Radev's support in the Balkan country of about 6.5 million, where voters are weary of repeated snap polls and a small group of veteran politicians widely seen as corrupt.

The cost of living is also an issue since the country adopted the euro in January. The previous government fell amid protests against a new budget proposing tax rises and higher social security contributions.    

That appears to be more important to voters than Radev's calls to improve relations with Moscow or resume Russian oil and gas flows to Europe. 

"I will put my trust in the new general in politics," said Georgi Bozhkov, a 37-year-old civil servant worried about rising bills. "When there is something new, we should try the new thing."

Radev's Position and Polling Data

RADEV HAS STRONG LEAD IN POLLS

Opinion polls on Friday showed Radev's Progressive Bulgaria on about 35%, up from a month ago. If confirmed, that would mark one of the strongest results by a single party in years, though still short of a parliamentary majority.

Voter Turnout and Public Sentiment

Voter interest is up. A poll by Sofia-based Alpha Research forecasts turnout of around 60%, nearly double the 34% recorded in June 2024.    

The figures highlight mounting frustration with the long dominance of the GERB party led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, which trails in second place on about 18%, and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, whose leader Delyan Peevski is under U.S. and UK sanctions for corruption.

Potential Coalitions and Political Challenges

One possible coalition partner is the pro-European We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition, which also says reform is needed.

Critics say Radev bears some responsibility for controversial decisions taken by interim governments he appointed during his presidency from 2016. These include a 2023 gas deal between Turkish state gas company Botas and Bulgaria's Bulgargaz that led to losses and an investigation.

"Any coalition that is formed is likely to suffer from government instability and face significant scrutiny from civil society and the opposition. Another snap election in 2026 is less likely now, but remains a significant possibility," said Mario Bikarski, an analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Break from the Past?

Progress and Ongoing Issues Since Communism

Bulgaria has developed rapidly since the fall of communism in 1989 and joined the European Union in 2007. Life expectancy has risen sharply, unemployment is the lowest in the EU, and the economy has greater safeguards since joining the euro zone.    

Corruption and Public Hopes for Change

But graft remains endemic, including in elections, where vote-buying is rife. Bulgaria ranks 84th in Transparency International's 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index, the lowest score in the EU alongside Hungary.

"We really, really hope that something will change, and that these corrupt rulers of ours will be replaced," said 82-year-old pensioner Temenuzhka Vaseva. 

(Writing by Edward McAllister. Editing by Mark Potter)