Asian Stocks Volatile After Selloff as Fed Leaves Markets Uncertain on Rates
Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment in Asia
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, July 30 (Reuters) - Asian stocks struggled for direction on Thursday, nursing steep losses for the week on mounting investor jitters around the AI trade, while a divided Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, leaving bond markets questioning where rates are headed.
Commodities and Currency Movements
Brent futures slipped below $90 per barrel, after jumping over 7% a day earlier as fighting in the Middle East escalated, although data showed tankers continued to make their way out of the region despite the continued missile and drone strikes.
The dollar was on the defensive after the U.S. central bank held steady although the split decision left investors confused on whether the Fed will see through rate hikes to combat inflation. Yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rose to 19-year highs.
Asian Tech Stocks and AI Trade Concerns
Asian chipmakers have been the centre of attention this week after a deep selloff in South Korean stocks that wiped more than $2 trillion from the country's equity market rocked markets and investors freted about the returns from massive AI spending.
South Korea's Market Turbulence
The KOSPI rose 4% in choppy trading on Thursday, but is staring at a 12% weekly decline that prompted Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol to apologise for the introduction of single-stock leveraged ETFs.
"Given that the fundamental thesis remains intact, there does appear to be an irrational, panic-like element to the current selling," said Gina Kim, portfolio manager for emerging market equities at Nordea Asset Management in Singapore.
"I cannot comment on when the panic will stop as such but some indicators to look out for would be margin balances in both Taiwan and Korea for retail investors. Both are declining but we would ideally need to see some levelling off," said Kim.
Samsung and Regional Market Performance
Chipmaker Samsung Electronics said its operating profit jumped 19-fold to a record in the second quarter, helping lift beaten-down investor sentiment.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose over 1% in early trading. Japan's Nikkei was 2% higher, but set for a 3% drop in the week.
Impact of U.S. Tech Earnings
Contrasting Fortunes of U.S. Megacaps
Earnings from U.S. megacaps Meta and Microsoft outlined the contrasting fortunes of the companies that are able to showcase their ability to generate cash even as they spend to build out AI infrastructure.
Microsoft's Positive Outlook
Microsoft said it expects to keep generating cash through the fiscal year 2027 that just started, lifting its shares, while Meta reported a 91% drop in second-quarter free cash flow, sending its stock down.
Nasdaq futures rose 1.2% in Asian hours while European futures were 0.3% higher.
Federal Reserve's Stance and Market Uncertainty
Fed Looking to Markets for Cues
In a post-meeting media conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh vowed to contain inflation but declined to offer any guidance on what action would be needed by the central bank.
Warsh noted that bond yields since the Fed's last monetary policy meeting had risen notably — investors have priced in interest rate increases — and he welcomed that move, even while saying it did not mean the central bank needed to ratify it with action.
Yields on 30-year U.S. bonds were at 5.2039%, having hit their highest since June 2007 at 5.2273% late in New York trading. [US/]
Market Reactions to Fed Messaging
"What we heard was a fairly defiant message about bringing inflation back to target, albeit with very little substance on exactly how that would be achieved," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
Fed funds futures now implied around a 60% chance the Fed would lift rates at its next meeting in September and had 33 basis points of tightening priced in by year-end.
"The Fed is likely to face ongoing questions around its credibility," said Kerry Craig, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
"The gap between the Fed’s rhetoric and its actions may pose a challenge for market pricing. A new chair faces a divided committee and a bond market that’s starting to question the central bank’s resolve."
(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)