Analysis-China Steps up Iran Diplomacy While Seeking Smooth Summit With Trump

China Increases Iran Diplomacy Ahead of Crucial Trump Summit

China's Diplomatic Maneuvers Amid Middle East Tensions

By Mei Mei Chu, Greg Torode and Antoni Slodkowski

BEIJING/HONG KONG, April 17 (Reuters) - China is accelerating its efforts to end the Iran war, walking a diplomatic tightrope as it prepares for a summit next month with U.S. President Donald Trump while trying not to alienate Tehran.

President Xi Jinping's mid-May meeting with Trump is shaping Beijing's approach to the Middle East conflict even as the world's top crude oil importer, reliant on the Middle East for half its fuel, seeks to safeguard its energy supplies, analysts say.

China's modulated approach to the war has protected its back-channel leverage enough that Trump credited Beijing with helping to get Iran to last weekend's peace talks in Pakistan.

Flurry of Middle East Diplomacy

FLURRY OF MIDDLE EAST DIPLOMACY

"You've heard President Trump repeatedly mention how the Chinese talked to the Iranians," said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project, an independent organisation that analyses China’s engagement in the developing world. "That puts them in the room with negotiators, even if it's not a seat at the table."

Considering Trump transactional and susceptible to flattery, China is seeking to advance its goals on trade and its claims on Taiwan at the summit, people familiar with China's thinking told Reuters.

The dominant view in Beijing is to "butter him up, give him a red-carpet welcome and preserve strategic stability", one person said.

China's Foreign Ministry did not respond to questions about its diplomacy ahead of the summit, the first visit by a U.S. president in eight years. Trump says it will take place May 14 and 15.

With the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports as a direct and growing threat, China has engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity and refrained from strong criticism of Trump's conduct of the war so that the summit, postponed once by the conflict, can go smoothly, analysts say.

Xi's Four-Point Peace Plan

Xi broke his silence on the crisis on Tuesday with a four-point peace plan that calls for upholding peaceful coexistence, national sovereignty, the international rule of law and balancing development and security.

After Trump warned Iran that "the entire country can be taken out in one night", Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning avoided condemnation, saying only that China was "deeply concerned" and urging all sides to play a "constructive role in de-escalating the situation".

China's Diplomatic Engagements

Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held nearly 30 calls and meetings with counterparts seeking a ceasefire, according to a Reuters count, while special envoy Zhai Jun has toured five Gulf and Arab capitals.

Travelling at one point by road to avoid contested airspace, Zhai could hear air-raid sirens, he told reporters.

Xi announced his peace plan in a meeting with Abu Dhabi's crown prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al ​Nahyan, as he sought to deepen ties with a rival to Iran while pressing Tehran towards dialogue.

Narrow Focus for Trump-Xi Summit

NARROW FOCUS FOR TRUMP-XI SUMMIT

China's "sense of urgency and the mode of intervention at the tactical level are shifting" as the war, which the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28, drags on, said Cui Shoujun, a professor of international affairs at Renmin University.

Still, some analysts say, Iran needs China more than China needs Iran, allowing Beijing to press for a ceasefire while protecting the summit with Trump.

Beijing's Strategic Balancing Act

"Beijing's ideal outcome," said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, "is the maintenance of no-strings-attached relationships with anti-Western countries like Iran but also preserving its opportunity to achieve some form of modus vivendi with the U.S."

While China played a role in getting Iran to talk to the U.S., its ability to shape decisions is limited, as it lacks a military presence in the Middle East capable of backing up its words.

Criticism of China's Diplomatic Approach

Some observers say China's energetic Middle East diplomacy is more theatre than statecraft.

"While the Iranians are keen to play up their relationship with China and have asked Beijing to serve as a guarantor of a ceasefire, Beijing has shown zero interest in assuming such a role,” said Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution. “Beijing appears content to remain on the sidelines as the United States bears the brunt of the pressure."

Summit Expectations and Limitations

At the summit with Trump, China may agree to buy Boeing aircraft, a deal held back for years over regulatory concerns that could be the biggest such order in history, as well as significant agricultural purchases.

The meeting is likely to be narrowly focused, analysts say, avoiding ambitious topics such as AI governance, market access and manufacturing overcapacity.

"There is zero chance China will reach some sort of grand bargain with the United States," said Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

(Reporting by Mei Mei Chu and Antoni Slodkowski in Beijing and Greg Torode in Hong Kong; Additional reporting by Beijing Newsroom; Editing by William Mallard)