Makerfield By-Election May Decide Future Leadership of Labour and UK Prime Minister
Key Developments and Political Implications of the Makerfield By-Election
By Elizabeth Piper
LONDON, June 18 (Reuters) - The northern English area of Makerfield votes on Thursday in a local election that could return Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to parliament, paving the way for him to launch a bid to take over as prime minister. The election, triggered by a party colleague resigning his seat, has brought unusual attention to the former coal mining area near Manchester as its result will determine the shape of an inevitable challenge to the deeply unpopular Keir Starmer.
If Burnham defeats the candidate for Reform UK, Brexit advocate Nigel Farage's populist party, his victory will fire the starting gun on a race to replace Starmer as leader of the Labour Party, a contest that could give Britain its seventh prime minister in just over a decade. Starmer himself has pledged to fight on.
Andy Burnham: Local Man with National Ambitions
Burnham, 56, made two unsuccessful bids to become Labour leader, in 2010 and 2015. He has mostly tried to play down his leadership ambitions by casting the by-election as a fight to improve the life chances of people in the area, close to where he now lives and where his three children went to school.
But more attention has focused on his hints of how he might govern Britain, leading to accusations from other candidates that, to him, the poll is just a stepping stone to winning national power.
Burnham’s Vision for Change
"Change is coming, but the question tonight is 'what kind of change?'" Burnham said in a speech to party supporters, also broadcast on X, late on Wednesday.
"A vote for me is a vote to end 40 years of trickle-down economics that didn't trickle down much at all to people here."
Labour’s Strategy and the Reform UK Challenge
After flooding Makerfield with senior ministers and dozens of lawmakers, Labour is nervously confident that Burnham can defeat Reform's candidate, Robert Kenyon, a self-employed plumber who is also from the area.
Polls put Burnham ahead with Reform close behind, its share of the vote dented by a new right-wing party called Restore Britain. Results are expected in the early hours of Friday.
Potential Leadership Race and Starmer’s Response
If Burnham wins, he has made clear he would run in any leadership race against the prime minister, although he might not move immediately. Another leadership rival, former health minister Wes Streeting, says he is prepared to trigger a challenge if Starmer does not step down as Streeting has urged.
Starmer, 63, has repeatedly said he will contest any leadership bid, saying he has "always battled against the odds" by taking a Labour Party that suffered its worst defeat for 84 years in 2019 to a landslide victory in 2024.
Party Dynamics and Possible Outcomes
But several senior Labour lawmakers say Starmer could be persuaded to hand the reins to Burnham, who appears to command significant support among Labour members of parliament, to prevent a months-long leadership contest that could further alienate voters before a national election due in 2029.
Burnham could then offer Streeting a high-profile cabinet job in return for declining to trigger a contest for the leadership, Labour lawmakers said.
One senior lawmaker said the party's standing could only suffer from a likely three-month leadership campaign over the summer, and that its members of parliament were likely to prioritise a quick, clean resolution.
Reporting and Editing Credits
(Reporting by Elizabeth Piper; Editing by Kevin Liffey)