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Sweden's election tightens with 11 days to go, TV4 poll shows - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Sweden's election tightens with 11 days to go, TV4 poll shows

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on September 2, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: September 2, 2026

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Sweden's Parliamentary Election Narrows as Latest Poll Shows Tight Race

Latest Opinion Polls and Election Dynamics

Poll Results Indicate a Tight Race

OSLO, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Sweden's ruling right-wing coalition has nearly caught up with the centre-left opposition bloc ahead of a September 13 election for parliament, a new opinion poll showed on Wednesday, pointing to a close vote in which either side could win.

The country's four centre-left parties held a combined 50.3% backing, while the coalition government stood at 47.7%, according to the August 24-30 survey of 2,984 voters conducted for TV4 by polling firm Novus.

The gap of 2.6 percentage point, down from 6.9 points in the previous Novus poll, was within the margin of error and the smallest divide of any voter survey published this year.

Key Political Figures and Election Stakes

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's Re-election Bid

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, in office since 2022, is fighting for re-election in the vote, which until now has looked like a near-certain win for Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson.

Centre-Left's Previous Lead

Only two weeks ago the centre-left held a 10 percentage point lead in a poll by a different agency, which political scientists at the time said was a near-insurmountable gap to bridge before election day.

Main Election Issues

Welfare State and Social Policies

The election has focused on maintaining Sweden's government-funded welfare state, including its health care and schools, as well as cost of living issues and security, immigration and energy supply.

Divisions Within the Centre-Left

Coalition Challenges

But the centre-left remains divided over which parties should be included in a government headed by the Social Democrats, with the Centre Party and the Left Party each ruling out taking part if the other is in.

This may in turn lead to lengthy negotiations and the formation of a minority government including some, but not all, opposition parties of the left wins.

Performance of Smaller Parties

The Liberal Party, a member of the right-wing government, polled 3.3%, falling short of the 4% threshold needed to secure seats in parliament but still its best showing in months, in a boost for the ruling coalition.

(Reporting by Terje Solsvik; editing by Niklas Pollard)

Key Takeaways

  • Centre‑left support has slipped from a double‑digit lead to a razor‑thin margin of 2.6 points—within the poll’s margin of error, indicating a genuinely competitive race.
  • The Liberal Party, aligned with the right‑wing Tidö coalition, hovers below the 4% parliamentary threshold, adding risk to the coalition’s seat count despite their strongest showing in months.
  • Major campaign themes for both blocs—welfare, cost of living, security, energy—reflect deep voter concerns, while the centre‑left risks fragmentation post‑election due to internal coalition tensions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What challenges does the centre-left bloc face even if they win?
The centre-left is divided over which parties should participate in government, possibly leading to lengthy negotiations or a minority government.

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