Saudi leads jump in OPEC+ oil output in September, despite Iran war disruption

OPEC+ Oil Production Jumps in September as Saudi Ramps Output Despite Iran War

OPEC+ Production Trends and Market Impact

By Alex Lawler and Olesya Astakhova

OPEC+ Sees Significant Output Increase

LONDON, Oct 13 - Oil producer group OPEC+ posted a sharp gain in production in September, OPEC said on Tuesday, driven by an increase from Saudi Arabia despite ongoing disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, pumped an average of 39.07 million barrels per day in September, OPEC said in a monthly report, up about 900,000 bpd from August.

Middle East Gulf Supply Recovery

The OPEC figures, which are based on secondary sources, add to signs in recent weeks of a recovery in oil supply from the Middle East Gulf, although shipments remain below levels before the Iran war started at the end of February 2026.

Saudi Arabia’s Role in Output Surge

Saudi state oil company Aramco ramped up oil loadings from Gulf export terminals in September after an attack on the East-West pipeline disrupted its shipments via the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia, the top OPEC producer, told OPEC that it pumped 8.372 million barrels per day in September, up more than 2 million bpd from August, the OPEC report showed.

Russian Output Declines Amid Conflict

RUSSIAN OUTPUT DECLINES IN SEPTEMBER

By contrast, Russia's oil production fell by 38,000 bpd last month, the OPEC report said. Russian output has been declining amid Ukraine's strikes on its energy infrastructure, including oil refineries.

OPEC Forecasts and Global Oil Demand

OPEC also lowered its forecast for 2026 oil demand growth for a sixth straight month, and raised its forecast for next year citing the need for the world to rebuild inventories depleted by the Iran war.

World Oil Demand Projections

World oil demand is expected to rise by 2.55 million bpd next year to average 108.3 million bpd, OPEC said. It expects growth of 180,000 bpd in 2026.

“This is assuming that oil demand in 2026 will indeed soften as currently expected and will be further bolstered next year by the need to replenish oil inventories,” OPEC said.

Stockpile Drawdowns and Market Pressures

Governments and energy companies have drawn oil from stockpiles to alleviate pressure in a global oil market facing unprecedented supply disruptions this year due to the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

(Reporting by Reuters; editing by Louise Heavens and Jason Neely)