Major G10 Central Banks Tighten Policy Amid Energy Price Surge
By Stefano Rebaudo and Sophie Kiderlin
Central Bank Policy Responses and Economic Impacts
Sept 18 (Reuters) - Major central banks are on a tightening path, with the Federal Reserve recalibrating its policy to a more restrictive stance on Wednesday, even as traders continue to price in a more aggressive policy response than projected in the U.S. central bank's so-called dot plot.
Economists say markets are overpricing future rate increases amid fears the oil shock could worsen after Houthis seized a strategic stretch of Red Sea coastline, a move seen as signalling a more assertive stance by Iran-backed militia.
Here's where central banks in the Group of 10 developed economies stand, ranked from highest to lowest policy rate.
1/ Australia
Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Actions
The Reserve Bank of Australia has hiked interest rates three times this year to 4.35%, entirely undoing last year’s cuts.
Inflation and Future Rate Hikes
The door to another hike looks firmly open, especially after a hot July inflation print. The central bank’s deputy governor said policymakers would debate the case for a hike at their meeting later this month.
Markets are broadly expecting the central bank to hike rates then.
2/ Norway
Norges Bank's Current Stance
Norway has one of the highest rates in the G10 and is likely nearing the end of its hiking cycle. Norges Bank, which meets on September 24, left rates unchanged at 4.25% in August and noted that inflation had softened.
Economic Growth and Market Expectations
The economy meanwhile grew at a slower pace than economists had expected in the second quarter, at just 0.3%, while markets price in one more quarter-point hike by year-end.
3/ Britain
Bank of England Decisions
The Bank of England on Thursday kept rates steady, as expected, at 3.75%. Three of the rate setters voted for a hike — the same number as at the central bank’s previous meeting.
Inflation Concerns and Policy Outlook
But policymakers also sounded the alarm on inflation, with Governor Andrew Bailey warning that prolonged conflict in the Middle East may require tighter policy.
Markets were last pricing in at least one rate hike from the BoE this year with a chance of another.
4/ United States
Federal Reserve Policy Moves
The Fed raised rates and flagged more hikes in a move that soothed concerns about the central bank's independence in the face of President Donald Trump's demands for lower rates.
Market Projections vs. Policymaker Guidance
Without that clear signal, investors may have questioned whether a Kevin Warsh-led Fed would remain committed to taming inflation, potentially weighing on US assets.
However, while policymakers project one more rate hike in 2026 and a hold in 2027, traders are pricing in more than one increase this year and roughly three moves by the end of 2027.
5/ New Zealand
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Actions
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates for the second consecutive meeting to 2.75% earlier this month, as expected. But it also hinted that more tightening would likely be measured as risks to the economic outlook grow.
Economic Growth and Rate Outlook
The latest economic growth data meanwhile came in above expectations, signaling resilience. Markets are pricing in at least one more hike by year-end.
6/ Euro Zone
European Central Bank Response
The European Central Bank raised rates for the second time this year earlier this month and struck a hawkish tone as energy prices rise.
Energy Prices and Economic Growth
Markets price in at least one further hike by year-end and a deposit rate above 3% in 2027. But some economists expect the energy shock to weigh on economic growth and help curb inflationary pressures into next year.
7/ Canada
Bank of Canada Policy and Outlook
The Bank of Canada left rates on hold earlier this month, but Governor Tiff Macklem said it could raise rates multiple times if inflation remained elevated.
Labour Market and Trade Tensions
That marked a departure from his previous messaging that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth were broadly balanced.
Since then, signs of a cooling labour market have emerged and trade tensions with the United States cloud the economic outlook. Still, markets price in another hike by year-end.
8/ Sweden
Riksbank's Dovish Stance
Sweden's Riksbank is in the dovish camp and expected to keep its key policy rate at 1.75% when it meets later this month.
Inflation Data and Market Expectations
August inflation figures came in below expectations, cementing that view.
Still, markets expect rates to rise later this year.
9/ Japan
Bank of Japan Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan hiked rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%, as expected, on Friday and signalled it was ready to continue raising borrowing costs as it warned of broadening price pressures.
Market Interpretation and Forward Guidance
Even so, the BOJ’s guidance was not understood as explicitly hawkish by markets, and there were two dovish dissenters, keeping investors on edge about the possible rate path ahead.
Markets were last pricing in a high chance of one more rate hike from the BOJ this year.
10/ Switzerland
Swiss National Bank Outlook
Markets expect the Swiss National Bank to hold its key rate at 0% when it meets on September 24 and leave it there well into next year.
Inflation, Growth, and Currency Effects
Data showing a rise in consumer prices and strong economic growth have raised the prospect of an earlier move. Still, a strong Swiss franc has helped dampen inflation, reducing the need for tightening.
(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo in Milan and Sophie Kiderlin in London; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe, Joe Bavier and Chizu Nomiyama)
