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French preliminary inflation at 2% in June, below estimates

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on June 30, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: June 30, 2026

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French inflation falls back to ECB target in June as it slows for first time in 2026

French Inflation Data and Economic Impact

June 30 (Reuters) - French inflation slowed in June for the first time this year, pulling back from a more than two-year high as energy prices ebbed, preliminary data from statistics agency INSEE showed on Tuesday.

Key Inflation Figures

• The harmonised rate in the euro zone's second-biggest economy, adjusted for comparison with other EU countries, fell to 2.0% year-on-year in June, in line with the European Central Bank's target

• The preliminary reading was down from 2.8% in May, snapping five consecutive months of acceleration that had begun in January

• The June rate came in well below a Reuters poll of 17 analysts' expectations, which had an average forecast of 2.3%

Factors Contributing to the Slowdown

• The slowdown was mainly due to a 5% monthly decrease in energy prices, particularly petroleum products, which nonetheless remained high at +11.2%, after climbing sharply since the start of the Iran war

Sector-Specific Inflation Trends

• Services inflation also eased, to 1.8% from 2.1% in May, while manufactured goods prices fell for a third straight month, deepening to -0.9% from -0.6%

Reporting Credits

(Reporting by Gianluca Lo Nostro; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Sharo Singleton)

Key Takeaways

  • June’s preliminary harmonised inflation came in at 2.0% versus analysts’ 2.3% average expectation, suggesting cooling price pressures in France. (investing.com)
  • May inflation had surged to 2.8%, the highest since February 2024, highlighting the sharp deceleration in June. (investing.com)
  • The euro‑area inflation context and INSEE’s own projections indicate France’s headline inflation may average around 2.5% this year, but the June dip could influence ECB rate path expectations. (banque-france.fr)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What was France's inflation rate in June?
France's harmonized inflation rate was 2% year-on-year in June, according to INSEE's preliminary data.
How did the actual inflation rate compare to analyst estimates?
The actual French inflation rate of 2% was below analysts' average estimate of 2.3%.
What is the harmonized inflation rate?
The harmonized inflation rate is adjusted so it can be compared with inflation rates in other euro zone countries.
Who provided the preliminary inflation data for France?
The French statistics agency INSEE provided the preliminary inflation data.
What was the range of inflation estimates from analysts?
Analyst estimates ranged from 2.2% to 2.8% for French inflation in June.

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