Ukrainian drones force closure of Russian airspace, raising airline and insurance risks
Ukrainian Drone Activity Heightens Risks for Airlines and Insurers
Ukrainian President's Warning to Airlines and Insurers
Sept 1 (Reuters) - Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned airlines and insurance companies on Tuesday that the presence of Ukrainian drones had made Russian skies dangerous to use and that they were effectively closed.
"Today, we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, everyone who still uses key Russian airports: the Russian sky is becoming completely dangerous," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.
Ukraine poses no threat to civil aviation, he said, "but there will be drones in Russia's skies and due notice must be taken".
"Although Russian authorities are not properly announcing it, Russian airspace will effectively be closing. The war started by Russia is closing its own skies," Zelenskiy added.
Escalation of Air Attacks and Drone Strikes
Russia has stepped up its air attacks on Kyiv and other cities in recent weeks, with Moscow's latest strike killing 12 people and injuring many more, the sixth straight day of intense assaults on the Ukrainian capital.
Ukraine has responded with frequent drone strikes on Russian targets, many associated with the country's oil industry as well as retail sites.
Impact on International Airlines
While European and U.S. carriers do not overfly Russia due to the war, the airspace is used by other airlines from countries like China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states. U.S. airlines have said using Russian airspace has given these carriers an advantage in saving time and fuel.
Airspace Risks and Aviation Safety Concerns
Uncertainty Over Drone Threats
AIRSPACE RISKS
The full risk of Ukrainian drones to aviation over Russia, the world's largest country by land mass, is not clear, but there have been deadly incidents of civilian aircraft being mistakenly targeted in the region.
Expert Analysis and Predictions
Aviation risk advisory firm Osprey Flight Solutions said in an alert to clients that while the majority of Ukraine's drone and missile strikes were likely to occur within 300 km (186 miles) of the border, daily attacks deeper inside Russia were near-certain through 2026, including near Moscow and St Petersburg.
Potential for Increased Strikes
"There is also a realistic possibility that the frequency of Ukrainian strikes will continue to increase in the short term deep inside Russian territory," the alert said. "It is assessed that miscalculation and/or misidentification is likely in areas related to the Ukraine conflict."
Russian Military Defenses and Historical Incidents
Osprey said Russian military air defences included conventional surface-to-air missile systems capable at all altitudes.
Last year, Europe's top rights court found Russia responsible for the downing of a Malaysian jetliner in 2014 at cruising altitude over eastern Ukraine where there was fighting.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told Azerbaijan's leader last year that two Russian missiles had detonated beside an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in 2024 after Ukrainian drones entered Russian airspace, in an incident that led to the deaths of 38 people.
(Reporting by Ron Popeski and Oleksandr Kozhukhar; Additional reporting by Allison Lampert; Editing by Bill Berkrot and Jamie Freed)
