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UK food makers' confidence sinks to lowest since 2022 energy crisis

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 27, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: May 27, 2026

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UK Food Industry Confidence Falls to Lowest Point Since 2022 Energy Crisis

Business Confidence in Britain's Food Manufacturing Sector

LONDON, May 28 (Reuters) - Business confidence in Britain's food manufacturing sector has fallen to its lowest since the 2022 energy crisis, the industry's main lobby group said on Thursday, highlighting the growing impact of the war in Iran.

Industry Overview and Recent Trends

The Food and Drink Federation, which represents the UK's 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, said its members' confidence dropped to -64 in the first quarter of 2026, the lowest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and on a par with the level seen at the start of the COVID pandemic. The previous confidence score was -31%.

Key Findings from the FDF's State of Industry Report

The FDF's latest State of Industry report also shows:

Rising Costs and Financial Pressures

• Rising energy prices are pushing up production costs. The cost of plastic packaging has risen by up to 15%, while some members reported transport costs increasing by more than 20%. The cost of fertiliser remains a concern.

Impact on Business Operations

• 82% of members say they will have to raise prices, 33% will reduce headcount or marketing spend, and 26% will pause or cancel planned investment.

Calls for Government Support

• 69% of members say support with energy costs should be a government priority to ease cost pressures.

Future Outlook and Inflation Forecast

• An outlook confidence score for the next quarter of -51%.

• In April, the FDF forecast that food and drink inflation could reach at least 9% by the end of the year.

(Reporting by James Davey. Editing by Mark Potter)

Key Takeaways

  • Business confidence in food manufacturing dropped to –64 in Q1 2026, matching levels seen during the early COVID‑19 period and lower than during the 2022 energy crisis (fdf.org.uk)
  • Rising input costs—energy, packaging (+15%), transport (+20%), fertiliser—are forcing 82% of manufacturers to plan price increases; 33% expect cuts in headcount or marketing; 26% to delay investment (fdf.org.uk)
  • FDF now forecasts food and drink inflation of at least 9% by end‑2026 due to the Iran war’s energy‑price impact via Strait of Hormuz disruption (fdf.org.uk)

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Why has confidence in the UK food manufacturing sector dropped?
Rising energy prices, increased costs of packaging and transport, and the impact of global conflicts like the war in Iran have contributed to the decline in confidence.
What is the current confidence score for UK food manufacturers?
The confidence score dropped to -64 in Q1 2026, the lowest since the 2022 energy crisis.
How are increased costs affecting food manufacturers?
Manufacturers face higher production, packaging, and transport costs, prompting 82% to plan price increases and some to reduce headcount or cancel investments.
What support are UK food manufacturers seeking from the government?
69% of Food and Drink Federation members want the government to prioritize support with energy costs.

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