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Swedish opposition holds big lead ahead of September vote, poll shows - Finance news and analysis from Global Banking & Finance Review
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Swedish opposition holds big lead ahead of September vote, poll shows

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on August 18, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: August 18, 2026

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Swedish Opposition Has 10-Point Lead Over Ruling Coalition Before Election

Opinion Polls Indicate Likely Change in Swedish Government

(Corrects first graphic to show missing data from latest poll, edits third graphic to remove extraneous word from headline)

Current Political Landscape

STOCKHOLM, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Sweden's centre-left opposition holds a 10 percentage point lead over the ruling right-wing coalition ahead of a September 13 election, making a change of government likely, according to an opinion poll conducted on behalf of public broadcaster SVT.

Historical Context and Election Dynamics

No government has ever bridged a gap this wide in such a short time, and "only a miracle" could now prevent defeat for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and his four-party coalition, SVT reported on Tuesday.

Survey Details and Projected Outcomes

The August 3-16 survey of some 3,000 voters showed Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson would likely become prime minister again after four years in opposition, replacing Kristersson of the right-wing Moderates.

Sweden's four left-leaning parties had a combined 53.9% backing, estimated to give them 196 seats, while the coalition government stood at 43.9%, or 153 seats, according to the survey conducted by the Verian polling firm.

Key Issues in the Election Campaign

The campaign has focused on cost of living issues as well as security, immigration, crime and energy supply.

Party Support and Trends

The Social Democrats maintained their position as Sweden's biggest party with 30.5% support, an increase of 0.2 percentage points in the 2022 election.

(Reporting by Anna Ringstrom and Terje Solsvik; editing by Niklas Pollard)

Key Takeaways

  • The SVT‑commissioned Verian poll gives the centre‑left bloc 53.9% (approx. 196 seats) versus 43.9% (about 153 seats) for the ruling coalition, marking an unusually large lead this close to election day (marketscreener.com).
  • Political scientists note that no government has overturned such a wide gap in this timeframe—SVT cited that “only a miracle” could save the current right‑wing coalition (marketscreener.com).
  • Different pollsters reflect similar momentum: SVT/Verian’s June barometer showed a 9.4‑point lead for the opposition, while Indikator Opinion's May survey matched a 10‑point advantage (riks.se).

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current lead of the Swedish opposition in the latest poll?
The Swedish centre-left opposition holds a 10 percentage point lead over the ruling right-wing coalition ahead of the September 13 election.
Who is likely to become Sweden's next prime minister based on the poll?
Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson is likely to become prime minister, replacing Ulf Kristersson.
How many seats are projected for the left-leaning parties versus the coalition government?
Left-leaning parties are projected 196 seats, while the coalition government is projected 153 seats.

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