Trade openness is a structural precondition for AI-driven productivity gains.
AI and trade are no longer separate policy domains. AI growth depends on globalized supply chains for semiconductors, computing infrastructure and digital services while trade is increasingly shaped by who controls AI infrastructure, data flows and cloud capacity.
According to Allianz Trade’s latest research report, export volumes of AI-enabling goods have doubled from USD1.9trn in 2014 to USD3.8trn in 2025, accounting for 15% of global trade and far outpacing the 40% growth in goods trade overall. Asia dominates the supply side, accounting for 65% of global AI-related exports and seven of the top ten exporters, while the US has tripled its AI-related imports since 2023, underpinned by 5,427 operational data centers, good for 45% globally.
An AI boom built in Asia
Over the past decade, global trade in AI-related goods has doubled, far outpacing the growth of overall goods trade and of non-AI-related goods in particular. This expansion has seen three distinct acceleration phases:
The first acceleration occurred in 2017–2018 (+15% y/y and +11% y/y respectively), driven by rising demand for AI-related goods and advances in foundational AI architecture, including the introduction of transformer-based architectures that underpin many large language models.
A second surge followed in 2021 (+30% y/y), driven by the release of early large-scale models, including GPT-3 (2020) and DALL·E (2021) and paving the way for the emergence of generative AI in 2022.
More recently, advances in multimodal and agentic AI systems have reignited investment momentum. While AI-related goods exports reached new heights in 2025 (+22% y/y), January and February 2026 data show that the boom continues, especially in economies such as Taiwan (+62% y/y) and South Korea (+105% y/y).
Asia has firmly established itself as the center of global trade in AI-enabling goods, led by China (18% share of global trade), Taiwan (12%) and Hong Kong (11%) on the podium, joined by Singapore (7%), South Korea (6%), Malaysia (4%) and Japan (3%) in the top ten. Emerging players include Mexico, which recorded the fastest growth in 2025 at +62% y/y, while Thailand and the Philippines are also expanding as alternative hubs.
The Middle East crisis could send semiconductor prices surging
Over the past two years, two-thirds of the expansion in Asian semiconductor exports were due to price increases and one-third due to higher volumes. Risks of energy shortages from the Middle East crisis could send prices even higher, given the already tight and extremely concentrated supply, Allianz Trade said. Taiwan, for example, operates the biggest foundry worldwide and occupies 70% market share in 2025. In Q1 2026, wafer shipments grew +28% y/y while revenue in USD terms expanded by +40.6%. Apart from a structural shift in product mix, the sustained increase in semiconductor pricing is best understood as a demand-led phenomenon, with supply-side constraints serving as an amplifying mechanism.
The fact that the majority of AI-enabling goods exports are driven by a small group of countries also makes their trade model highly vulnerable to potential shocks. Taiwan and Hong Kong are the most exposed to an AI bubble burst, with 74% and 59% of their exports respectively being related to AI goods. They are followed by Singapore and the Philippines (both at 47%), Malaysia (43%) and South Korea (32%). In contrast, trade in AI-enabling goods accounts for just 15% of US exports, indicating that American exports are relatively well diversified.
AI-related import demand is concentrated in the US and parts of Asia
Since 2023, Taiwan and the US have recorded the largest increases in AI-related imports, reflecting their pivotal positions in the AI supply chain: Taiwan through the import of capital equipment for semiconductor manufacturing, and the US through demand linked to its dominance in AI services and datacenter infrastructure. Since the mass-market deployment of large language models since 2023, the US has tripled its imports of advanced AI-related products, reflecting massive domestic investment in AI and continued reliance on foreign semiconductor supply.
In Asia, beyond Taiwan, the strongest import growth has been seen in South Korea, reflecting its dual role in semiconductor production and consumers of advanced AI components, and Hong Kong, highlighting its important role in semiconductor production and technology flows into China due to US export controls. Overall, the AI semiconductor market remains highly concentrated geographically: the US being the dominant end market for the most advanced generation of AI semiconductors, the EU and China as the other two large but structurally distinct demand pools.
Allianz Trade contact
Jason Wong
+852 3665 8946
jason.wong@allianz-trade.com
About Allianz Trade
Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and a recognized specialist in the areas of surety, collections, structured trade credit and political risk. Our proprietary intelligence network is based on instant access to data of 289 million corporates. We give companies the confidence to trade by securing their payments. We compensate your company in the event of a bad debt, but more importantly, we help you avoid bad debt in the first place. Whenever we provide trade credit insurance or other finance solutions, our priority is predictive protection. But, when the unexpected arrives, our AA credit rating means we have the resources, backed by Allianz to provide compensation to maintain your business. Headquartered in Paris, Allianz Trade is present in over 40 countries with 5,900 employees. In 2025, our consolidated turnover was EUR4 billion and insured global business transactions represented EUR1,400 billion in exposure. For more information, please visit allianz-trade.com
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The statements contained herein may include prospects, statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Such deviations may arise due to, without limitation, (I) changes of the general economic conditions and competitive situation, particularly in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets, (II) performance of financial markets (particularly market volatility, liquidity and credit events), (III) frequency and severity of insured loss events, including from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (IV) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (V) persistency levels, (VI) particularly in the banking business, the extent of credit defaults, (VII) interest rate levels, (VIII) currency exchange rates including the euro/US-dollar exchange rate, (IX) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (X) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, and reorganization measures, and (XI) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences.
