Global tensions set to stalk Singapore's flagship defence summit
Key Issues and Expectations at the Shangri-La Dialogue
(Corrects name of political analyst in seventh paragraph)
By Xinghui Kok and Greg Torode
Overview of the Summit
SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, May 25 (Reuters) - War in Iran, strained U.S. commitments in Asia and rising tensions over Taiwan will likely dominate the agenda at this week's annual Shangri-La Dialogue, the region's premier defence forum.
The free-wheeling informal gathering, running from May 29 to 31, draws an eclectic mix of ministers, generals, intelligence chiefs, diplomats, analysts and weapons makers for carefully worded speeches and frank exchanges behind polished hotel doors.
Keynote Speakers and U.S. Involvement
While Vietnam's President To Lam will deliver Friday night's keynote, the spotlight will fall squarely on U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth when the Pentagon chief takes the floor against the backdrop of halting efforts to end the war in Iran.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran, as his administration played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough in the three-month-old conflict.
The U.S. blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would "remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed," Trump wrote on Truth Social. Iran has effectively shut the Strait since the war erupted on February 28, throttling a vital artery that typically carries about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments.
Concerns Among Asian Allies
Asian allies are expected to scrutinise Hegseth for any sign that President Donald Trump's administration is overstretched, pulled into the Middle East conflict, embroiled in disputes with Europe, including withdrawing troops from Germany, and consequently distracted from the region.
"There will likely be some continued anxiety over the unpredictability and volatility of U.S. policy, and the consequences for stability," said Chong Ja Ian, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.
"The most pressing issue for Asia would be the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and its effects on energy supply."
The Iran war has thrown the global economy into disarray with sharply higher oil prices stoking inflation and straining supply chains from fertiliser to food, pressures that are acutely felt across Asia's import-dependent economies.
China's Role and Regional Tensions
Uncertainty Over Chinese Participation
CHINA'S PARTICIPANTS UNCLEAR AS TENSIONS OVER TAIWAN RISE
A key unknown is whether China will send its defence minister after skipping last year's dialogue, a decision that ceded the stage to Washington with Beijing later accusing Hegseth of "vilifying" China.
China’s defence ministry has not confirmed whether Defence Minister Dong Jun will attend and which other officials it might also send. The ministry did not respond to a Reuters' request for comment.
Simmering Taiwan Tensions
Hegseth arrives after the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump earlier this month in Beijing and amid simmering tensions over Taiwan.
China has ramped up pressure on Taiwan by increasing its military presence around the island, keeping Taipei on high alert for further Chinese moves following the summit.
China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, a position the government in Taipei rejects.
Potential U.S. Strategy on China
"In the aftermath of the summit, I suspect he will tread carefully on China," said Bonnie Glaser, head of the Indo-Pacific Program of the German Marshall Fund think-tank, adding that Hegseth might further push allies and partners to spend more on defence.
Military Readiness and Regional Security
Foreign military attaches say the Chinese delegation is likely to face pointed questions at the forum about how sweeping corruption purges of senior officers are affecting the Chinese military's combat readiness.
Analysts expect exchanges on how smaller states navigate the U.S.-China rivalry, as well as focus on maritime flashpoints in the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, and defence spending.
Vietnam's Diplomatic Role
Vietnam's Lam is expected to underscore Hanoi's neutrality as it deepens ties with both Washington and Beijing while defending its maritime claims against China.
Newly installed as both Communist Party chief and president, Lam is the most powerful Vietnamese leader in decades and is poised to play a more prominent diplomatic role.
(Reporting by Xinghui Kok and Greg Torode in Hong Kong; additional reporting by Francesco Guarascio in Hanoi and Beijing newsroom.Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
