Explainer-How Andy Burnham could try to displace Keir Starmer as UK prime minister
By Andrew MacAskill and Alistair Smout
Possible Scenarios for Andy Burnham to Replace Keir Starmer
LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) - Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, won a parliamentary seat on Friday, a vital step towards fulfilling his ambition to replace his party colleague Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Britain's prime minister.
The scale of the victory, with 54.8% of the vote, will bolster the view of some in the governing Labour Party that only he can lead Labour to defeat Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK party in a future national election.
That could spur the party to seek a coronation for Burnham, forcing Starmer to step aside in a coordinated move rather than embarking on a months-long leadership contest.
About a quarter of Starmer's lawmakers have urged the prime minister to resign since his Labour Party last month suffered the heaviest local election losses of any governing party in more than three decades, largely due to a surge in support for Farage's anti-immigration party.
Burnham has said he would contest any leadership race, and is the frontrunner to replace Starmer. But his supporters are debating how, and when, to challenge the prime minister.
Former health minister Wes Streeting has said he also has the backing of enough lawmakers to enter any contest.
Below are some of the ways that Burnham could topple Starmer:
Orderly Transition of Power
Starmer Agrees to an Orderly Transition
Burnham could be the beneficiary of an uncontested handover.
Many Labour politicians have urged Starmer to set out a timetable for his departure rather than awaiting and then contesting a leadership election.
Such a contest could damage the party if rivals engage in personal attacks.
If Starmer chose not to stand, and Burnham secured enough backing from members of parliament to enter the race while his rivals failed to do so, Burnham would become prime minister.
Lawmakers have suggested Streeting could also accept a senior role in a Burnham government, such as finance minister, in return for not triggering a leadership contest.
Early Leadership Challenge
Burnham Triggers Early Contest to Challenge Starmer
Burnham will be sworn into parliament next week, giving him a chance to formally challenge Starmer, as only members of parliament can lead the government.
Labour has strict rules governing the removal of a party leader. They require lawmakers to coalesce around specific candidates rather than just express "no confidence" in their current leader.
Nomination Requirements and Timeline
Any challenger must secure the backing of 20% of the party's lawmakers in the House of Commons, equating to 81 lawmakers, including the challenger, in the current lower house of parliament.
If Burnham decides to move early, he will most likely need to declare a challenge before parliament goes into recess on July 16, when lawmakers return to the areas they represent to work and take summer holidays.
Starmer has an automatic right to stand in any leadership contest, and has said he would do so.
After candidates gather support from local party branches and trade unions, party members would then vote.
Overall, that could take two to three months.
Delayed Leadership Challenge
Burnham Waits Until After the Summer to Trigger a Contest
Burnham could seek to delay any leadership bid until after the summer, to give him time to campaign for the Labour candidate to be the next Greater Manchester mayor, in an election expected around the end of July.
It would also give Burnham a chance to build relationships and seek more support from Labour members of parliament, particularly those elected since he left in 2017.
A Starmer ally, housing minister Steve Reed, said in the wake of the by-election that Labour should now focus on campaigning for the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
Leadership Challenge by Another Politician
Another Politician Triggers a Leadership Contest
A leadership contest could also be triggered by another politician, with Burnham then choosing to stand.
Streeting, who resigned as health minister in May, has said Starmer should consider his position over the weekend. If the prime minister fails to set out the terms of his departure, Streeting says he is prepared to challenge him soon.
If Starmer and Streeting stand against Burnham in a vote among Labour members, polls suggest Burnham would win.
(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill, Alistair Smout and Kate Holton; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
