Israel Defies Trump with Iran Strikes to Influence Peace Negotiations
(Note offensive language in paragraph 9)
By Rami Ayyub, Benjamin Raab and Emily Rose
Israel's Strategic Moves Amid U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
JERUSALEM, June 8 (Reuters) - In launching renewed strikes on Iran on Monday in apparent open defiance of Donald Trump, Israel has tried to make its case to have a say at the peace negotiating table, where it has so far been kept at arm's length by the U.S. president.
Despite Trump publicly calling for Israel to hold fire, it struck targets in Iran for the first time since a ceasefire in April, after Iran fired missiles at Israel in what Tehran said was retaliation for Israeli strikes on Lebanon's capital.
Israel and Iran both called a halt to the exchange on Monday shortly after Trump told them to stop shooting, although they each left the door open to a possible resumption.
Israel's Message to Washington
But in launching the strikes, Israel had sent a message to Washington that no final agreement with Iran can be reached if Israel's interests are ignored, said Danny Orbach, a military historian at Israel's Hebrew University.
"Because if it tramples too heavily on Israeli interests, Israel can overturn the table."
Trump's Approach to Negotiations
Exclusion of Israel from Peace Talks
TRUMP EXCLUDES ISRAEL FROM NEGOTIATIONS
Trump, who launched the war alongside Israel in February, has been trying to reach a negotiated settlement with Iran, while excluding Israel from those talks.
He has publicly prodded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from actions that could scupper the talks, including by holding fire in Lebanon, which Israel invaded in March in pursuit of the Iran-aligned Hezbollah movement.
Iran says it will not agree to any peace deal with Washington unless a ceasefire also holds in Lebanon.
Netanyahu's Response and Domestic Criticism
Last week Netanyahu called off airstrikes on Beirut after a phone call with Trump. Trump later confirmed he had called the Israeli leader "fucking crazy" in the heated exchange, although he also said they still get along well.
Netanyahu's domestic critics accused him of effectively surrendering sovereignty by restricting Israeli military actions to sustain U.S. negotiations, without a seat at the table.
Israel's Military Strategy in Lebanon and Iran
Retaining Operational Freedom
ISRAEL SEEKS TO RETAIN ABILITY TO ATTACK IN LEBANON
After Israel's strike on Lebanon on Sunday, and Iran's decision to fire at Israel in response, Trump made clear he believed that should be the end of the matter.
"Each of them had their fun," he told the Axios website. "Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one," Trump said.
But Israel concluded that only by striking Iran itself in response could it establish that Iran should not be granted future say over Israeli actions in Lebanon.
Israel could not accept a scenario in which Iranian strikes on Israel were considered a justifiable "tit-for-tat response" to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, a senior Israeli defence official told Reuters.
Netanyahu's Deliberations with Security Officials
Before deciding to strike Iran, Netanyahu convened a meeting of top security and defence officials to discuss goals of a potential short-term escalation, according to the senior defence official and two other Israeli officials familiar with the deliberations.
One goal was to establish that any future U.S.-Iran deal would not remove Israel's right to attack Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and keep its troops deployed there, the senior defence official said.
Netanyahu had raised this consideration in weekend phone calls with Trump, the senior defence official said.
Netanyahu has not made any public comments or appearances since resuming attacks on Iran early on Monday. His office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Challenges of Sustaining a Long-Term Campaign
Dependence on U.S. Support
ISRAEL CANNOT SUSTAIN LONG IRAN AIR CAMPAIGN ALONE, ANALYSTS SAY
The brief resumption of Israel-Iran fighting and Netanyahu's defiance of Trump's demands are the latest episode to lay bare the strains that have at times emerged between the two conservative leaders.
In private, Netanyahu has acknowledged difficulty influencing Trump's thinking on Iran, telling aides he has "no manoeuvre" to steer the president's decision-making.
But although Israel has the capability to strike Iran without U.S. support, it would still need Washington's blessing and support to sustain such an air campaign for more than a few weeks, say military experts.
Expert Analysis
"There's no doubt that Israel (cannot) go alone in this war for a long, long time, because (the) ammunition is consumable," said Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.
(Reporting by Rami Ayyub, Benjamin Raab and Emily RoseEditing by Peter Graff)
