Stocks Rebound as Iran Peace Talks in Focus; Warsh Hearing Looms

Stocks Rebound as Iran Peace Talks Boost Sentiment, Warsh’s Fed Hearing Ahead

By Gregor Stuart Hunter

Market Reactions and Key Events

Asian Markets Respond to Iran Peace Talk Prospects

TOKYO, April 21 (Reuters) - Stocks rebounded in early trading in Asia on Tuesday as markets took heart from reports Iran is considering attending peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, with renewed bets on AI underpinning demand.

Focus on Federal Reserve Leadership

Investors were also keeping their eyes on a Senate confirmation hearing later for Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, which Trump has repeatedly criticised for failing to cut rates sooner and more aggressively.

Regional Market Performance

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.9%, as South Korea's Kospi rose 2.1% to hit a fresh record high for the first time since the Iran war began. S&P 500 e-mini futures were up 0.1%, while Brent crude slipped 0.4% to $95.09 a barrel.

Japan's Nikkei 225 tacked on 1.2%, while Australian shares bucked the trend, slipping 0.3%.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices

An uneasy ceasefire between the United States and Iran frayed after the U.S. announced the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship, drawing vows of retaliation from Tehran. Iran said over the weekend it would skip a second round of negotiations, though a senior official later told Reuters the country may yet send delegates to talks expected in Islamabad.

Adding to the uncertainty, Vice President JD Vance remained in the United States on Monday, a separate source told Reuters, denying reports he was already on his way to Pakistan for talks.

Impact on Oil and Market Sentiment

The renewed tensions had reignited a surge in oil prices overnight as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely paralysed. 

"While potential talks in Islamabad remain likely, rhetoric from Washington and Tehran continued to point to fragile and strained negotiations," analysts from Westpac wrote in a research report.

U.S. Markets and Warsh’s Fed Hearing

Overnight, the S&P 500 was down 0.2% on worries over whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire would hold, while the Nasdaq Composite snapped a 13-day winning streak, its longest in more than three decades. 

Senate Panel to Question Warsh’s Independence

Warsh's confirmation hearing before the Senate panel is scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) on Tuesday, with his independence from the Trump White House expected to be a key focus. Warsh will say he is "committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent," according to his prepared remarks, while economists say his attitudes towards the central bank's quantitative easing program will also be critical.

Economists Weigh In on Warsh’s Policy Stance

"In the past, Warsh was a vocal critic of the Fed's 'bloated' balance sheet, as he called it, and argued that it creates a distortionary impact on asset prices," said Bansi Madhavani, senior economist at ANZ in London. "His preference for a smaller balance sheet is quite clear, but any guidance around what he thinks will be the optimal size, we think that will be relevant," she said on a podcast.

Currency and Commodity Markets

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, held steady at 98.08, firmly in the middle of the range it has sat in during the past week. 

The euro was fetching $1.1782 and sterling traded at $1.35225, both down a touch on the day. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar also eased 0.1% to $0.7171 in early trading.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was up 0.8 basis point at 4.256%.

Gold and Cryptocurrencies Remain Rangebound

Bets on so-called dollar debasement languished. Gold was up 0.1% at $4,824.83 after a month of moving sideways. Cryptocurrencies fluctuated in the trading channel they have wallowed in since early February, with bitcoin down 0.3% at $76,072.61 and ether slipping 0.8% to $2,320.92.

(Reporting by Gregor Stuart HunterEditing by Shri Navaratnam)