Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 6, 2026
3 min readLast updated: April 1, 2026
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Lithuanian intelligence warns Russia is expanding military units along NATO’s eastern border, gaining combat experience in Ukraine and potentially positioning for future conflict—especially if sanctions are lifted, enabling rebuild and modernization within 6–10 years.
By Andrius Sytas
VILNIUS, March 6 (Reuters) - Russia is expanding military units at the border with NATO, giving them battle experience in Ukraine, and could use them as hubs in a conflict with NATO after the war, Lithuanian intelligence said on Friday in its annual assessment of security threats.
If sanctions are removed, Russia would be ready for a "wide-scale military conflict" with NATO in six years' time, the intelligence assessment said.
"Russia would likely create not only a 30-50 percent larger army than it had before the war but also a relatively modern one. Strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition would be fully restored. Russia would be ready for a conventional military conflict with NATO," the Lithuanian intelligence report said.
Tipping the balance of power in Europe in its favour, as well as a total subjugation of Ukraine, remain top Russian goals, said the report.
The Russian Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Russian military industry has been ramped up with help from China, enabling Moscow to reduce its reliance on Western technology. After the war, its surplus weaponry would lead to "consequences for global security", said the report.
Bordering both Russia and its close ally Belarus, Lithuania, a member of NATO and the EU, is one of the leading supporters of Ukraine and critics of Russia.
The report alluded to parcel explosions in 2024 which Lithuanian officials blamed on Russian military intelligence and said could be scaled up to kill people.
But it said the string of gas pipeline, power cable and telecom outages in the Baltic Sea since 2023, while caused by ships sailing from Russian ports, were not deliberate. It did not say how it had reached that conclusion.
Baltic Sea nations are on high alert after the underwater outages since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The NATO military alliance has said it will boost its presence in the region.
Finland in 2023 recovered an anchor it said belonged to a Chinese container vessel suspected of damaging the gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland, and several fibre-optic links. The case remains under investigation, and the Finnish authorities did not say whether they believe the incident was deliberate or an accident.
Asked about damage to the pipeline and cables, Mindaugas Mazonas, head of Lithuania's military intelligence, told reporters:
"The investigation was not undertaken by our intelligence... but we have the answer that this was a non-intentional incident."
(Reporting by Andrius Sytas in Vilnius; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
Lithuanian intelligence stated that Russia is expanding military units on NATO borders, giving them battlefield experience in Ukraine and positioning them as potential hubs for future conflict.
The report indicated Russia could be ready for a wide-scale military conflict with NATO in six years if current sanctions are removed.
Russia is increasing its army size by 30-50%, modernizing its forces, and restoring weapon and ammunition reserves, supported by Chinese technology.
The report mentioned that recent gas pipeline, power cable, and telecom outages were not deemed deliberate, though some parcel explosions in 2024 were attributed to Russian military intelligence.
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