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Finance

Italy's births set to sink to a record low in 2026

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on October 21, 2026

2 min read

· Last updated: October 21, 2026

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Italy Expected to Reach Record Low Birth Rate by 2026, ISTAT Reports

ISTAT Highlights Ongoing Demographic Crisis in Italy

Historic Decline in Births

ROME, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Italy is set to suffer a further drop in the number of births this year to a historic low, aggravating the country's demographic crisis, national statistics bureau ISTAT said on Wednesday.

• Italy last year recorded just 355,772 births, the lowest figure since Italian unification in 1861, and the 17th consecutive year in which the figure declined.

Recent Birth Rate Trends

• In the first seven months of 2026 the negative trend continued, with just under 197,000 newborns, down 1.1%  from the same period of 2025, ISTAT said in a statement.

• The fertility rate, measuring the average number of children born to each woman of child-bearing age, edged down in January-July to 1.13, from last year's record low of 1.14.

National Response and Societal Factors

• Italy's long-declining birth rate is considered a national emergency.

• Despite Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her predecessors' pledges to confront the issue, no one has been able to halt the drop.

Demographic Details and Naming Trends

• ISTAT reported that in 2025 the average age of women when they had their first child was 32, broadly in line with the year before.

• In 2025 44.1% of children were born to unmarried parents, up from 43.2% the year before.

• The most common first names given to Italian children born last year were Sofia for girls and Leonardo for boys.

Reporting Credits

(Reporting by Gavin JonesEditing by Keith Weir)

Key Takeaways

  • Births dropped to 355,772 in 2025, the lowest since Italian unification in 1861, marking a 17‑year continuous decline and a 3.8–3.9% fall from 2024 (istat.it).
  • In January–July 2026, births totaled approximately 196,864, down about 1.1% from the same period in 2025 (istat.it).
  • Total fertility rate dipped further to around 1.13 children per woman in early 2026 from a record‑low 1.14 in 2025—well below the replacement rate of 2.1 and amid growing urgency to address Italy’s aging population (istat.it).

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Italy's projected birth rate for 2026?
Italy's births are expected to hit a historic low in 2026, continuing a 17-year decline, according to ISTAT.
How does Italy's fertility rate compare to previous years?
The fertility rate in Italy dropped to 1.13 in January-July 2026, down from the previous year's record low of 1.14.
What actions have been taken to address Italy’s demographic crisis?
Despite pledges from recent prime ministers like Giorgia Meloni, no effective action has halted the declining birth rate.
What is the average age of women at the birth of their first child in Italy?
In 2025, the average age was 32, which was broadly in line with previous years.
What percentage of children were born to unmarried parents in Italy in 2025?
In 2025, 44.1% of children were born to unmarried parents, an increase from 43.2% the previous year.

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