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German economic council cuts growth forecast as energy prices bite

Published by Global Banking & Finance Review

Posted on May 27, 2026

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· Last updated: May 27, 2026

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German Economic Council Slashes Growth Forecast; Higher Energy Costs Hurt Outlook

German Economic Outlook and Contributing Factors

By Maria Martinez

BERLIN, May 27 (Reuters) - The German Council of Economic Experts cut its growth forecast for Europe's largest economy on Wednesday, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict, higher energy prices and U.S. trade policy.

Revised Growth Projections

The economists now expect 0.5% growth this year, down from a November forecast of 0.9%, according to their spring report to the government.

For 2027, the panel forecasts growth of 0.8%.

Impact of the Iran War on Consumption

IRAN WAR TAKING ITS TOLL ON CONSUMPTION

Higher energy prices are reducing household purchasing power and weighing on consumption, the economists said.

Inflation Trends and Risk Scenarios

Inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026, up from 2.2% in 2025, before easing to 2.8% in 2027.

In a risk scenario in which oil prices rise to $120 per barrel and remain elevated until October 2026, the advisers said German growth could slow to 0.2% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, while inflation could rise further.

Structural Challenges Facing Germany

The council also warned that Germany's long-running economic weakness reflected structural problems, including weaker industrial competitiveness and demographic pressures.

(Reporting by Maria Martinez and Klaus Lauer, Editing by Linda Pasquini)

Key Takeaways

  • Growth forecast halved to 0.5% for 2026, down from 0.9% in November report, with 2027 projected at 0.8% (Council).
  • Higher energy prices from Iran conflict and U.S. trade policy squeeze consumption and exports; structural issues like competitiveness and demographics also weigh.
  • Inflation projected at 3.0% in 2026 (up from 2.2% in 2025), easing to 2.8% in 2027; risk scenario with oil at $120/barrel could cut growth to 0.2% in 2026 and push inflation even higher.

Frequently Asked Questions

What impact do higher energy prices have on Germany's economy?
Higher energy prices are reducing household purchasing power and weighing on consumption, slowing economic growth.
What is the expected inflation rate for Germany in the coming years?
Inflation is forecast to average 3.0% in 2026, up from 2.2% in 2025, and then ease to 2.8% in 2027.
How could an oil price increase to $120 per barrel affect Germany?
If oil rises to $120 per barrel, growth may slow to 0.2% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, with inflation rising further.
What structural problems are affecting Germany’s economic growth?
Germany faces weaker industrial competitiveness and demographic pressures, contributing to long-running economic weakness.

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