ECB Sees Medium-Sized Inflation Shock, Plans 2% Target in 12 Months
ECB's Assessment and Policy Outlook
Current Inflation Shock and ECB Response
FRANKFURT, July 24 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank still considers the current inflation shock to be medium-sized, which requires some policy action but not aggressive moves, and it will get price growth back to 2% in the next year or so, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said.
The ECB left interest rates unchanged on Thursday but offered plenty of hints that more policy tightening will be needed and economists and traders are overwhelmingly betting on a rate hike in September.
ECB's Commitment to 2% Inflation Target
"What we're saying is, we will make sure that we will guide inflation back from where it is now -- 3% -- back to 2%, over let's say the next year or so," Lane said in a podium discussion in Donegal, Ireland, on Friday.
Potential Risks and Monitoring
Energy Costs and Second-Round Effects
While Lane did not discuss what measures may be coming in September, he said the ECB would be closely watching whether surging energy costs generate second-round price or wage impacts, which could threaten to perpetuate inflation.
The ECB has not seen such effects so far but has argued that the longer energy prices stay high, the more likely it was for second round effects to become evident.
Lane's Perspective on the Inflation Shock
Lane nevertheless argued that the current inflation overshoot is still a moderate shock, which requires a measured response from the central bank.
"It's not for now the kind of red alert level where you have to move quickly as we did (in 2022), so it's a medium-sized shock, and we're looking every meeting to say exactly what is the right level of interest rates to make sure it remains medium-sized and doesn't persist, doesn't become red," Lane said.
Market Expectations
Financial markets expect at least two more rate hikes from the ECB, with moves fully priced in by October and March.
(Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; editing by Philippa Fletcher)
