TotalEnergies results dip, but CEO bullish on oil price and refining margins

By America Hernandez

PARIS -TotalEnergies reported a 2.4% drop in third-quarter earnings on Thursday, meeting expectations as the French oil major raised upstream production and achieved improved crude refining margins to help offset lower oil prices. 

Adjusted net income slipped to $4.0 billion from $4.1 billion a year earlier, in line with an analysts' consensus compiled by LSEG - though Total had flagged a slight earnings rise in a trading update earlier this month.

Shares were down 1.7% at 53.24 euros at 1450 GMT, with analysts citing lower liquefied natural gas earnings and saying Total should sell more assets to cut debt.

"Some people are worried we are borrowing, but we are borrowing for the good. Cash flow is up," CEO Patrick Pouyanne told analysts on a results call, adding that acquisitions would boost production.

While oil prices in July-to-September were down about 14% from a year earlier, European margins on refining fuels have soared more than 300% to $63 per ton as the EU's ban on fuel imports made from Russian oil restricted supply just as diesel demand rose during the holiday driving season.

That boosted Total's downstream results by $462 million versus a year earlier.

Total also increased its hydrocarbon production by 4% to 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, leading to a 10% boost in upstream earnings.

Pouyanne said recent U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft would push refining margins and oil prices higher.

"I think the market is fundamentally underestimating what it means when you have U.S. sanctions on two large companies which are at the core of trading Russian oil," the CEO said. 

Pouyanne said he expects European refining margins closer to $100 per ton in the fourth quarter and oil prices higher than $65 per barrel.

Earnings from its LNG segment fell 18%, reflecting outages and calmer markets. 

Forward markets show LNG prices in the fourth quarter within a range of $11-12 per MMbtu, which Pouyanne said was a good price that would benefit the upstream gas segment, even though that meant less LNG trading profits within a tight price range

"I'm not unhappy, because I prefer to gain $11 or $12 on my Norwegian, British and Danish gas and lower volatility on the trading," Pouyanne said. "The trading business adds value, but the base business is our upstream production."

Mindful of a supply glut beginning in 2027, the CEO added Total was being careful to keep capital expenditure low for new U.S. LNG projects — and said Mozambique LNG would keep to a $20.5 billion budget despite a four-year project freeze.

Total is under pressure from investors to cut debt after buying assets worth more than $3 billion in the first half, as oil prices look set to fall in 2026. 

"The key for Total will be to de-risk the $2 billion planned divestments" in the fourth quarter, after several sales fell through this year, said RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria.

Total's plan to cross-list on the New York Stock Exchange will be realised on December 8, when existing American Depositary Receipts will be converted into ordinary shares.

(Reporting by America Hernandez in Paris, Alban Kacher in Gdansk; editing by Jason Neely and Jan Harvey)