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Scope affirms the Republic of Ireland’s credit rating at A+; Outlook Stable

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Scope assigns new A+ Issuer Rating to Lloyds Banking Group following ring-fencing-related changes

Euro area membership, strong institutional framework, continued deleveraging, and robust growth potential support the rating. Still high public- and private-debt levels as well as external vulnerabilities constrain rating upside.
For the detailed rating report, click here.

Scope Ratings GmbH today affirms the Republic of Ireland’s long-term local-currency issuer rating at A+. The agency also affirms Ireland’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating at A+, along with its short-term issuer rating at S-1+ in both local and foreign currency. The sovereign’s senior unsecured debt in both local and foreign currency are affirmed at A+. All Outlooks are Stable.

Rating drivers

Ireland’s A+ sovereign ratings are underpinned by its European Union (EU) and euro area membership within a large common market, a strong reserve currency, an independent European Central Bank effectively acting as a lender of last resort, and a regional economic and financial governance framework that has been enhanced since the Great Financial Crisis and supports the creditworthiness of euro area member states. Ireland’s ratings are further reinforced by its strong national institutions and wealthy, diversified economy that generates one of the highest per-capita incomes in Scope’s rated universe (at USD 70,638 in 2017). The rating acknowledges the strengths in Ireland’s robust growth potential, improving public finances and declining public-debt ratios, long maturity of public debt, increase in Ireland’s current account surplus alongside private-sector debt reductions and the mending of financial system weaknesses.

However, Ireland’s ratings remain constrained by the economy’s vulnerability to sudden reversal, learning the lessons from the Great Financial Crisis and subsequent euro area debt crisis. In addition, the still high public-debt levels (especially when assessed against underlying economic activity) and meaningful leverage within the financial system and non-financial private sector, even after years of significant deleveraging, represent risks. The size and complexity of Ireland’s financial and corporate sectors, when considered in the context of a small and very open economy (with nominal GDP of EUR 294bn in 2017) alongside the Irish government’s weakened balance sheet relative to pre-crisis levels, creates susceptibilities to both domestic and international shocks, captured in the A+ rating. In addition, ongoing risks concerning Brexit, uncertainties around the global economic cycle (and Ireland’s sensitivity to this), and questions surrounding the impact of US and European corporate tax reforms are further areas for monitoring. Steps taken to reduce some of these vulnerabilities and/or evidence that risks will prove less meaningful than anticipated could support a stronger assessment on Ireland’s sovereign creditworthiness.

Robust economic growth in Ireland has significantly outperformed that of peers since 2014; real GDP expanded by 7.2% in 2017 – the highest of EU member states. The strong performance has been broad-based across private and public consumption, investment, and net exports. Further improvement in private-sector balance sheets can be expected to support private consumption and investment. GDP growth is projected to converge towards a potential of about 3.5% over the medium term.

The 2017 fiscal deficit dropped to 0.3% of GDP, from 0.5% in 2016. In 2018, the headline government deficit is foreseen at 0.2% of GDP, with a general government surplus aimed for by 2020. In structural terms, the cyclically-adjusted fiscal deficit is seen at 0.6% of GDP in 2018, up from 0.1% in 2017, before dipping under the medium-term objective of 0.5% by 2019. In its latest assessment, the European Commission cautioned about deviations in the structural deficit and expenditure growth benchmarks in 2018. General government debt has declined to 69.3% of GDP as of Q1 2018, from 75.8% a year prior and 124.6% during the Q1 2013 peak. This decline has been driven by high nominal growth, improvements in the fiscal position, and proceeds from the state’s bank holdings. Scope expects the debt ratio to continue the downward path moving ahead.

Ireland is in the process of collecting EUR 13bn in back taxes (plus interest and penalties) that the European Commission in August 2016 ordered Apple to pay; both the company and Ireland have appealed. Irish officials expect to have all funds (worth over 4% of GDP) in an escrow account by the end of September. In addition, the weighted average maturity of Ireland’s long-term debt (marketable and official) is very long at about 12 years. However, 57% of Irish government bonds was held by the rest of the world as of March 2018 – a risk in stressed scenarios, in Scope’s view.

Ireland’s current account surplus increased to 9.7% of GDP in the year to Q1 2018, from -2.6% of GDP in the year to Q1 2017, in large part due to globalisation effects. The IMF foresees a gradual correction of Ireland’s volatile current account balance, though remaining elevated at 6.5% of GDP by 2023. The current account surplus has, alongside external debt deleveraging, helped improve the net international investment position, albeit to a still negative -156.6% of GDP in 2017.

Ireland’s credit strengths are balanced by credit weaknesses, such as the still very high levels of private- and public-sector indebtedness, which accentuate external vulnerabilities and limit the system’s shock absorption capacity. Corporate indebtedness amounted to 312% of GDP in Q4 2017, bringing total non-financial private-sector debt to 364% of GDP – which is high under a comparison against peers. The size and complexity of the Irish banking system (with outstanding financial system debt of 423% of GDP, although down from the 2011 peak of 646%) remains a further risk.

Despite meaningful improvements in general government debt metrics, Scope notes that government debt relative to GDP remains elevated at 69%. In addition, drawbacks in GDP data due to the activities of mainly US-based multinationals add uncertainties to analytics premised on ratios using nominal GDP.

To address this, the central statistics office prudently designed a “de-globalised” measure of Irish annual product: modified GNI. Public debt to modified GNI is higher: around 111.1% of modified GNI as of 2017. This 111% of modified GNI figure remains higher than it was pre-crisis (27.7% of modified GNI as of 2006), even though Ireland has reduced this also meaningfully from peaks (debt to modified GNI peaked in 2012 at 166.1%). Given Ireland’s propensity for economic volatility, coupled with the still leveraged private sector (and thus, greater risk for spill-over in a stressed case), continued public-sector debt reduction remains a core priority in facilitating greater resilience and shock-absorption means.

As an economy highly integrated with the global cycle, Ireland is vulnerable to adverse shifts in the external environment that can impact economic activity and revenue generation. The economic slowdown in the UK, together with a weak British pound, adversely impacts Irish trade. A hard Brexit, while not anticipated by Scope, nonetheless represents a risk. Also of concern are the recent EU-US trade disputes, international tax policy changes, and EU actions against illegal state aid. Over recent decades, Ireland has been a favoured destination for foreign direct investment by multinationals. Corporate tax cuts in the US and EU may slow such flows and affect multinational operations.

Several years after the crisis, Irish banks have deleveraged significantly and strengthened capital positions. Balance sheet structures and asset quality have also improved, supported by robust economic conditions, restructurings, asset sales and write-offs as well as rising collateral values. While still high, non-performing loans have also declined to 10.7% of total loans as of Q4 2017, from 27.1% in 2013.

Core Variable Scorecard (CVS) and Qualitative Scorecard (QS)

Scope’s Core Variable Scorecard (CVS), which is based on the relative rankings of key sovereign credit fundamentals, provides an indicative “AA” (“aa”) rating range for the Republic of Ireland. This indicative rating range can be adjusted by the Qualitative Scorecard (QS) by up to three notches depending on the extent of relative credit strengths or weaknesses as compared with peers, based on Scope analysts’ qualitative findings.

For Ireland, relative credit weaknesses have been identified for the following analytical categories: i) macroeconomic stability and sustainability; ii) current account vulnerability; iii) external debt sustainability; iv) vulnerability to short-term external shocks; and v) financial imbalances and financial fragility. No relative qualitative credit strengths against peers were identified. Combined relative credit strengths and weaknesses generate a downward adjustment and signal an AA- sovereign rating for the Republic of Ireland. The lead analyst has recommended a further adjustment of the indicated rating to A+ in order to take into account important distortions in Irish economic data that tend to overstate the performance of underlying fundamentals and credit metrics in the CVS. The results have been discussed and confirmed by a rating committee.

For further details, please see Appendix 2 in the rating report.

Outlook and rating-change drivers

The Stable Outlook reflects Scope’s assessment that the challenges Ireland faces are manageable over the foreseeable horizon.

The ratings and/or outlook could be upgraded if, individually or collectively: i) improvements in public finances and economic growth bring about a further, significant reduction in government debt ratios; ii) private sector debt reductions make additional strides and banking system resilience improves; and/or iii) vulnerabilities to external risks are reduced via continued external debt deleveraging, and/or Scope gains greater confidence surrounding Ireland’s resilience to risks stemming from Brexit, global trade disputes and global economic growth, and/or shifts in international corporate taxation policies.

Conversely, the ratings and/or outlook could be downgraded if: i) economic growth or growth potential proves substantially weaker than anticipated, or the fiscal balance weakens significantly, threatening or even reversing the decline in general government debt relative to GDP; ii) private-sector and banking system risks begin to regather, impacting long-term macroeconomic and financial stability; and/or iii) net external debt increases or external shocks result in substantially weaker medium-term growth and damage financial stability.

Rating Committee

The main points discussed during the rating committee were: 1) economic and fiscal policy framework; 2) debt metric improvements and sustainability; 3) Ireland’s economic model and boom/bust structure; 4) impact of Brexit on the Irish economy; 5) public- and private-sector deleveraging and lingering vulnerabilities; 6) Irish nominal GDP data issues; 7) financial stability and vulnerabilities; and 8) peers comparison.

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Lockdown 2.0 – Here’s how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room

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Lockdown 2.0 – Here's how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room 1

By Jeff Carlson, author of The Photographer’s Guide to Luminar 4 and Take Control of Your Digital Photos

suggests “the product you’re creating is not the camera, the lens or a webcam’s clever industrial design. It’s the subject, you, which is just on e part of the entire image they see. You want that image to convey quality, not convenience.”

Technology experts at Reincubate saw an opportunity in the rise of remote-working video calls and developed the app, Camo, to improve the video quality of our webcam calls. As part of this, they consulted the digital photography expert and author, Jeff Carlson, to reveal how we can look our best online. 

It’s clear by now that COVID-19 has normalised remote working, but as part of this the importance of video calls has risen exponentially. While we’re all used to seeing the more casual sides of our colleagues (t-shirt and shorts, anyone?), poor webcam quality is slightly less forgivable.

But how can we improve how we look on video? We consulted Jeff Carlson for some top tips– here is what he had to say.

  1. Improve the picture quality of your call

The better your camera, the higher quality your webcam calls will be. Most webcams (as well as currently being hard to get hold of and expensive), are subpar. A DSLR setup will give you the best picture, but will cost $1,500+. You can also use your iPhone’s amazing camera as a webcam, using the new app from Reincubate, Camo.

Jeff’s comments “The iPhone’s camera system features dedicated coprocessors for evaluating and adjusting the image in real time. Apple has put a tremendous amount of work into its imaging software as a way to compensate for the necessarily small camera sensors. Although it all works in service of creating stills and video, you get the same benefits when using the iPhone as a webcam.”

Aidan Fitzpatrick, CEO of Reincubate explains why the team created Camo, “Earlier this year our team moved to working remotely, and in video calls everyone looked pretty bad, irrespective of whether they were on built-in Mac webcams or third-party ones. Thus began my journey to build Camo: an iPhone has one of the world’s best cameras in it, so could we make it work as a webcam? Category-leading webcams are noticeably worse than an iPhone 7. This makes sense: six weeks of Apple’s R&D spend tops Logitech’s annual gross revenue.”

  1. Place your camera at eye level

A video call will never quite be the same as a face-to-face conversation, but bringing your camera up to eye level is a good place to start. That can involve putting your laptop on a stand or pile of books, mounting a webcam to the top of your display screen, or even using a tripod to get the perfect position.

Jeff points out, “If the camera is looking down on you, you’ll appear minimized in the frame; if it’s looking up, you’re inviting people to focus on your chin, neck, or nostrils. Most important, positioning the camera off your eye level is a distraction. Look them in the eye, even if they’re miles or continents away.

Lockdown 2.0 – Here's how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room 2

Low camera placement from a MacBook

  1. Make the most of natural lighting

Be aware of the lighting in the room and move yourself to face natural lighting if you can. Positioning the camera so any natural light is behind you takes the light away from your face, which can make it harder to see and read expressions on a call.

Jeff Carlson’s top tip: “If the light from outside is too harsh, diffuse it and create softer shadows by tacking up a white sheet or a stand-alone diffuser over the window.” 

Lockdown 2.0 – Here's how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room 3Lockdown 2.0 – Here's how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room 4

Backlit against a window Facing natural light

  1. Use supplementary lighting like ring lights

The downside to natural lighting is that you’re at the mercy of the elements: if it’s too bright you’ll have the sun in your eyes, if it’s too dark you won’t be well lit.

Jeff recommends adding supplementary lighting if you’re looking to really enhance your video calls. After all, it looks like remote working will be carrying on for quite some time.

“The light can be just as easy as a household or inexpensive work light. Angle the light so it’s bouncing off a wall or the ceiling, depending on your work area, which, again, diffuses the light and makes it more flattering.

Or, for a little money, use a softbox or a shoot-through umbrella with daylight bulbs (5500K temperature), or if space is tight, LED panels. Larger lights are better for distributing illumination– don’t be afraid to get them in close to you. Placement depends on the look you’re going after; start by positioning one at a 45-degree angle in front and to the side of you, which lights most of your face while retaining nice shadow detail.” 

In some cases, a ring light may work best. LEDs are arranged in a circle, with space in the middle to put the camera’s lens and get direct illumination from the direction of the camera.

  1. Centre yourself in the frame

Make sure you’re getting the right angle and that you’re using the frame effectively.

“You should aim for people to see your head and part of your torso, not all the space between your hair and the ceiling. Leave a little space above your head so it’s not cut off, but not enough that someone’s eyes are going to drift there.”

  1. Be mindful of your backdrop

It’s not always easy to get the quiet space needed for video calls when working from home, but try as best you can to remove anything too distracting from your background.

“Get rid of clutter or anything that’s distracting or unprofessional, because you can bet that will be the second thing the viewers notice after they see you. (The Twitter account @RateMySkypeRoom is an amusing ongoing commentary on the environments people on television are connecting from.)”

A busy background as seen by a webcam

  1. Make the most of virtual backgrounds

If you’re really struggling with finding a background that looks professional, try using a virtual background.

Jeff suggests: “Some apps can identify your presence in the scene and create a live mask that enables you to use an entirely different image to cover the background. While it’s a fun feature, the quality of the masking is still rudimentary, even with a green screen background that makes this sort of keying more accurate.”

  1. Be aware of your audio settings

Our laptop webcams, cameras, and mobile phones all include microphones, but if it’s at all possible, use a separate microphone instead.

“That can be an inexpensive lavalier mic, a USB microphone, or a set of iPhone earbuds. You can also get wireless lavalier models if you’re moving around during a call, such as presenting at a whiteboard in the camera’s field of view.

The idea is to get the microphone closer to your mouth so it’s recording what you say, not other sounds or echoes in the room. If you type during meetings, mount the mic on an arm instead of resting it on the same surface as your keyboard.”

  1. Be wary of video app add-ons

Video apps like Zoom include a ‘Touch up your appearance’ option in the Video settings. This applies a skin-smoothing filter to your face, but more often than not, the end result looks artificially blurry instead of smooth.

“Zoom also includes settings for suppressing persistent and intermittent background noise, and echo cancellation. They’re all set to Auto by default, but you can choose how aggressive or not the feature is.”

  1. Be the best looking person in the virtual room

What’s important to remember about video calls at this point in time is that most people are new to what is, really, personal broadcasting. That means you can easily get an edge, just by adopting a few suggestions in this article. When your video and audio quality improves, people will take notice.

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Bringing finance into the 21st Century – How COVID and collaboration are catalysing digital transformation

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Bringing finance into the 21st Century – How COVID and collaboration are catalysing digital transformation 5

By Keith Phillips, CEO of TISATech

If just six or seven months ago someone had told you that in a matter of weeks people around the world would be locked down in their homes, trying to navigate modern work systems from a prehistoric laptop, bickering with family over who’s hogging the Wi-Fi, migrating online to manage all financial services digitally, all while washing their hands every five minutes in fear of a global pandemic… You’d think they had lost their mind. But this very quickly became the reality for huge swathes of the world and we’re about to go through that all over again as the UK government has asked that those who can work from home should.

Unsurprisingly, statistics show that lockdown restrictions introduced by the UK government in March, led to a sharp increase in people adopting digital services. Banks encouraged its customers to log onto online banking, as they limited (and eventually halted) services at branches. This forced many customers online as their primary means of managing personal finances for the first time.

If anyone had doubts before, the Covid-19 pandemic proved to us the importance of well-functioning, effective digital financial services platforms, for both financial institutions and the people using them.

But with this sudden mass online migration, it’s become clear that traditional banks have struggled to keep up with servicing clients virtually. Legacy banking systems have always stilted the digitisation of financial services, but the pandemic thrust this issue into the limelight. Fintech firms, which focus intently on digital and mobile services, knew it was only a matter of time before financial institutions’ reliance was to increase at an unprecedented rate.

For years, fintechs have been called upon by traditional players to find solutions to problems borne from those clunky legacy systems, like manual completion of account changes and money transfers. Now it is the demand for these services to be online coupled with the need for financial services firms to cut costs, since Covid-19 hit the economy.

Covid-19 has catalysed the urgent need to bring digital transformation to a wider pool of financial services businesses. Customers now have even higher expectations of larger institutions, demanding that they keep up with what the younger and more nimble challengers have to offer. Industry leaders realise that they must transform their businesses as soon as possible, by streamlining and digitising operations to compete and, ultimately, improve services for their customers.

The race for digital acceleration began far before the recent pandemic – in fact, following the 2008 financial crisis is likely more accurate. Since the credit crunch, there has been a wave of new fintech firms, full of young, bright techies looking to be the next big thing. Fintechs have marketed themselves hard at big conferences and expos or by hosting ‘hackathons’, trying to prove themselves as the fastest, most innovative or the most vital to the future of the industry.

However, even during this period where accelerating innovation in online financial services and legacy systems is crucial, the conditions brought about by the pandemic have not been conducive to this much-needed transformation.

The second issue, which again was clear far before the pandemic, is that fact that no matter how nimble or clever the fintechs’ solutions are, it is still hard to implement the solutions seamlessly, as the sector is highly fragmented with banks using extremely outdated systems populated with vast amounts of data.

With the significance of the pandemic becoming more and more clear, and the need for better digital products and services becoming more crucial to financial services firms and consumers by the day, the industry has finally come together to provide a solution.

The TISAtech project was launched last month by The Investing and Saving Alliance (TISA), a membership organisation in the UK with more than 200 leading financial institutions as members. TISA asked The Disruption House, a specialist benchmarking and data analytics business, to create a clearing house platform for the industry to help it more effectively integrate new financial technology. The project aims to enhance products and services while reducing friction and ultimately lowering costs which are passed on to the customers.

With nearly 4,000 fintechs from around the world participating, it will be the world’s largest marketplace dedicated to Open Finance, Savings, and Investment.

Not only will it provide a ‘matchmaking’ service between financial institutions an fintechs, it will also host a sandbox environment. Financial institutions can pose real problems with real data and the fintechs are given the space to race to the bottom – to find the most constructive, cost-effective solution.

Yes, there are other marketplaces, but they all seem to struggle to achieve a return on investment. There is a genuine need for the ‘Trivago’ of financial technology – a one stop shop, run by an independent body, which can do more than just matchmaking. It needs to go above and beyond to encompass the sandboxing, assessments, profiling of fintechs to separate the wheat from the chaff, and provide a space for true collaboration.

The pandemic has taught us that we are more effective if we work together. We need mass support and collaboration to find solutions to problems. Businesses and industries are no different. If fintechs and financial institutions can work together, there is a real chance that we can start to lessen the economic hit for many businesses and consumers by lowering costs and streamlining better services and products. And even if it is just making it that little bit easier to manage personal finances from home when fighting with your children for the Wi-Fi, we are making a difference.

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What to Know Before You Expand Across Borders

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What to Know Before You Expand Across Borders 6

By Sean King, Director of International Tax at McGuire Sponsel

The American retail giant, Target Corporation, has a market cap of $64 billion and access to seemingly limitless resources and advisors. So, when the company engaged in its first global expansion, how could anything possibly go wrong?

Less than two years after opening its first Canadian store in 2013, Target shut down all133 Canadian locations and terminated more than 17,000 Canadian employees.

Expansion of an operation to another country can create unique challenges that may impact the financial viability of the entire enterprise. If Target Corporation can colossally fail in its expansion to Canada, how might Mom ‘N’ Pop LLC fare when expanding into Switzerland, Singapore, or Australia?

Successful global expansion requires an understanding of multilayered taxes, regulatory hurdles, employment laws, and cultural nuances. Fortunately, with the right guidance, global expansion can be both possible and profitable for businesses of any size.

Permanent establishment

Any company with global ambitions must first consider whether the company’s expansion outside of the U.S. will give rise to a taxable presence in the local country. In the cross-border context, a “permanent establishment” can be created in a local country when the enterprise reaches a certain level of activity, which is problematic because it exposes the U.S. multinational to taxation in the foreign country.

Foreign entity incorporation

To avoid permanent establishment risk, many U.S. multinationals choose to operate overseas through a formal corporate subsidiary, which reduces the company’s foreign income tax exposure, though it may result in an additional level of foreign income tax on the subsidiary’s earnings. In most jurisdictions, multinationals can operate their business in the foreign country as a branch, a pass through (e.g., partnership,) or a corporation.

As a branch, the U.S. multinational does not create a subsidiary in the foreign country. It holds assets, employees, and bank accounts under its own name. With a pass through, the U.S. multinational creates a separate entity in the foreign country that is treated as a partnership under the tax law of the foreign country but not necessarily as a partnership under U.S. tax law.

U.S. multinationals can also create corporate subsidiaries in the foreign country treated as corporations under the tax law of both the foreign country and the U.S., with possibly two levels of income taxation in the foreign country plus U.S. income taxation of earnings repatriated to the U.S. as dividends.

Check-the-box planning

Under U.S. entity classification rules, certain types of entities can “check the box” to elect their classification to be taxed as a corporation with two levels of tax, a partnership with pass-through taxation, or even be disregarded for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The check the box election allows U.S. multinationals to engage in more effective global tax planning.

Toll charges, transfer pricing and treaties

When establishing a foreign corporate subsidiary, the U.S. multinational will likely need to transfer certain assets to the new entity to make it fully operational. However, in many cases, the U.S. multinational cannot perform the transfer without recognizing taxable income. In the international context, the IRS imposes certain outbound “toll charges” on the transfer of appreciated property to a foreign entity, which are usually provided for in IRC Section 367 and subject to various exceptions and nuances.

Instead, the U.S. multinational may prefer to license intellectual property to the foreign subsidiary for a fee rather than transfer the property outright. However, licensing requires the company and foreign subsidiary to adhere to transfer pricing rules, as dictated by IRC Section 482. The U.S. multinational and the foreign subsidiary must interact in an arms-length manner regarding pricing and economic terms. Furthermore, any such arrangement may attract withholding taxes when royalties are paid across a border.

Are you GILTI?

Certain U.S. multinationals opt to focus on deferring the income recognition at the U.S. level. In doing so, they simply leave overseas profits overseas and delay repatriating any of the earnings to the U.S.

Despite the general merits of this form of planning, U.S. multinationals will be subject to certain IRS anti-deferral mechanisms, commonly known as “Subpart F” and GILTI. Essentially, U.S. shareholders of certain foreign corporations are forced to recognize their pro rata share of certain types of income generated by these foreign entities at the time the income is earned instead of waiting until the foreign entity formally repatriates the income to the U.S.

The end goal

Essentially, all effective international tax planning boils down to treasury management. Effective and early tax planning can properly allow a company to better achieve its initial goal: profitability.

If global expansion is on the horizon for your company, consult a licensed professional for advice concerning your specific situation.

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