Asian Markets Show Caution Ahead of US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions

By Scott Murdoch

Impact on Oil Prices

SYDNEY, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Asian financial markets struck a cautious tone on Tuesday in holiday-thinned trading, as oil prices were mixed ahead of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva due to begin later in the day.

Japan's Economic Performance

Markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea were closed on Tuesday for Lunar New Year holidays. U.S. markets were shut on Monday for Presidents' Day.

Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook

Japan's Nikkei was down 0.9% while in Australia, the S&P/ASX200 was 0.24% higher.

Ten-year Treasury yields slipped 2.5 basis points to 4.029% on Tuesday.  

In Japan, the 20-year JGB yield fell 5.5 basis points to 3.025%. The 30-year yield slipped 6 basis points to 3.025%. Yields move inversely to prices.

A 5-year bond auction held earlier in the day saw a weak outcome, which meant the 5-year JGB yield slipped 4.5 basis points to 1.625%. 

Nasdaq futures were down 0.8% and S&P 500 futures were off 0.4%.

The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against major rivals, was mostly steady at 97.12, after a small gain of 0.2% overnight.

Japan's weakening economy remained in focus on Tuesday, one day after much softer than expected GDP numbers.

The country on Monday reported its economy grew an annualised 0.2% in the fourth quarter, far below the 1.6% gain forecast as government spending dragged on activity. On Tuesday, the Japanese yen was down 0.3% against the greenback to 153.05 per dollar.

The weak figures highlight the challenges ahead for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and should support her push for more aggressive fiscal stimulus, economists said.

The BOJ next meets on rates in March, with traders forecasting only a slim chance for a hike. Economists polled by Reuters last month expected the central bank to wait until July before tightening policy again.

"The market has likely assumed that softer GDP data in the fourth quarter will encourage PM Takaichi's plans to offer additional fiscal support and reduce the sales tax on food," NAB analysts wrote in a research note.

"Pricing for BOJ rate hikes nudged a little lower post the GDP data, with only 4 basis points priced for the March meeting and 16 basis points priced for April."

Australia's central bank said on Tuesday it had concluded inflation would stay stubbornly high if it had not hiked interest rates as it did this month, and was not yet sure if further tightening would be necessary.

INVESTORS CAUTIOUS ON US-IRAN TALKS

Oil prices were mixed ahead of U.S.-Iran talks aimed at de-escalating tensions against a backdrop of expected OPEC+ supply increases. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.95% but the move included all of Monday's price action as the contract did not have settlement that day due to the U.S. holiday.

Brent crude futures were down 0.5% during the Asian trading session after a 1.33% gain on Monday. 

Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy held a drill in the Hormuz Strait on Monday, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, a day prior to renewed Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiations. The passage accounts for about 20% of global oil shipments.

"The market remains unsettled by geopolitical uncertainties, with investors cautious due to the pending U.S.-Iran and Ukraine negotiations this week," ANZ analysts said.

"Speculative positions have been increasing in recent weeks. If tension in the Middle East eases or meaningful progress is made on the Ukraine war, the risk premium currently built into oil prices could swiftly unwind."

Gold was down 0.82% at $4950 per ounce as a higher dollar on Monday made greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Spot silver was 1.6% lower.

(Reporting by Scott Murdoch; Editing by Kim Coghill and Saad Sayeed)