Wall Street bonuses to drop as uncertainty prevails, consultancy says

By Nupur Anand

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Wall Street bonuses are expected to slide this year as economic and geopolitical uncertainty stall deal-making, according to a report by compensation consultancy Johnson Associates.

Investment banking activities have dried up this year as corporations hold off on initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions. Companies have been reticent to make moves after U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff announcements last month roiled markets.

The consultancy expects a decline in incentives of up to 10% this year.

"Bankers are concerned and afraid of paralysis where client activity freezes up and companies don't invest, buy or sell, and the firms don't generate the fees that they depend on. That is the biggest fear right now," said Alan Johnson, founder of Johnson Associates. "The longer the uncertainty lasts, the more significant the impact."

In a worst-case scenario, bankers' incentive payouts could sink as much as 20% if economic activity slows, halting transactions, he said. More clarity on tariffs and the easing of geopolitical tensions could keep bonuses flat or boost them slightly.

Employees in equity underwriting are likely to see an up to 20% decline in bonuses while advisory, hedge funds and asset management executives are likely to see incentives decline by up to 10%.

Not all are expected to see smaller bonuses.

Market volatility has led to an increase in trading volumes that could result in higher bonuses for traders and bankers, with equity sales and trading seeing an uptick of up to 25%, followed by fixed income sales and trading at 20% and debt underwriting incentives rising by up to 10%.

The number of merger and acquisition contracts announced across the world - an indicator of global economic health - fell in April to the lowest level in more than 20 years, according to data compiled by Dealogic for Reuters.

In the U.S., the world's largest M&A market, just 555 deals were signed last month, the fewest for any month since May 2009, during the financial crisis.

(Reporting by Nupur Anand in New York; editing by Lananh Nguyen and Leslie Adler)