What’s next in France’s political and budget crises?

PARIS (Reuters) – France’s minority government is in a precarious position, with the far-right National Rally party promising to force the collapse of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s cabinet unless it yields to its demands on next year’s budget.

Far-right chief Marine Le Pen and left-wing opponents could put forward a no-confidence motion as early as Monday afternoon when the social security budget goes to vote in the National Assembly.

If Barnier’s government is brought down, the country would be plunged into its second political crisis in half a year.

Nonetheless, the French constitution includes provisions to adopt financial legislation and avoid a U.S.-style government shutdown, although it would likely to be a rough ride to get there.

Here are the options open in the coming days and weeks.

IS THE BARNIER GOVERNMENT ABOUT TO FALL?

It is not certain but is becoming increasingly likely. Barnier heads a minority government, and opposition parties on the left and far right have the numbers to join forces and topple it.

Marine Le Pen’s party has raised pressure on Barnier over budget talks, drawing up red lines that, if not met, would prompt her party to vote with the left to bring down the government.

Barnier has already made concessions to Le Pen, but she has said they did not go far enough.

WHEN COULD IT COME TO A HEAD?

The first key moment is Monday at 3 p.m. local time (1400 GMT) when the social security part of the 2025 budget goes to vote.

If Barnier decides to use special constitutional powers to ram it through parliament without a final vote, the opposition can swiftly file a no-confidence motion. That would require a vote on the government’s fate be held within 48 hours.

If the no-confidence vote succeeds, Barnier would have to tender his resignation, and the resignation of his government, to President Emmanuel Macron.

Barnier may decide to press ahead with a regular vote. If the social security budget is shot down, it would go back to the Senate for further negotiations. If it miraculously passes, there are two other major hurdles ahead, with votes on the broader budget scheduled for Dec. 4 and Dec. 18, presenting the same risks for Barnier.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE GOVERNMENT FALLS?

Barnier’s government can remain in place in a caretaker capacity to handle day-to-day business while Macron tries to come up with a new prime minister, which could take well into next year.

Macron’s pick would need to be someone with enough cross-party appeal to survive a confidence vote. One possibility would be to name a government of technocrats with no political programme.

WHAT HAPPENS TO FRANCE’S BUDGET IF THE GOVERNMENT IS FELLED?

If parliament has not passed a budget by Dec. 20, the caretaker government can invoke constitutional powers to pass it by ordinance.

However, that would be risky as there is a legal grey area about whether a caretaker government can use such powers. Moreover, doing so would inevitably trigger a political maelstrom.

A more likely move would be for the caretaker government to propose special emergency legislation to ensure there is a budget at the start of the year.

However, it could only roll over spending limits and tax provisions from this year, and all savings measures Barnier had planned would fall by the wayside.

That would mean pensions would get squeezed and tax thresholds would rise for 17 million people as neither could be adjusted for inflation, according to Finance Minister Antoine Armand.

Such temporary legislation could buy time until a new government is in place and is able to give parliament a proper budget bill, though it too would likely face a rough ride in France’s fractured lower house.

WHAT HAPPENS FURTHER OUT?

Since no party has a majority in the lower house, any legislation proposed by the new government can easily trigger a new no-confidence vote.

The only way to overcome the political instability is for Macron to call new legislative elections, which cannot be held until one year after the last elections in July.

Some opposition lawmakers are pushing for Macron to resign, which they say would be the only real solution. Macron has ruled out any early resignation before the end of his term in 2027.

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas and Michel Rose, Editing by Angus MacSwan)