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Scope places Turkey’s BB+ ratings under review for downgrade



Scope places Turkey’s BB+ ratings under review for downgrade

The erosion of Turkey’s institutional strength and rising economic and external imbalances drive the placement under review. High growth potential, exchange rate flexibility, sound public finances and banking sector resilience support the rating.

Scope Ratings GmbH has today placed the Republic of Turkey’s long-term local- and foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings of BB+, as well as the short-term issuer rating of S-3 in both local and foreign currency, under review for downgrade.

Rating drivers

The placement under review for downgrade of Turkey’s sovereign ratings reflects the following two drivers:

  1. Deterioration in Turkey’s economic policy and governance framework both before and in following the June election, which weigh on the effectiveness and credibility of fiscal, monetary and structural economic policy management. Recent developments cast doubt on the authorities’ commitment to address the country’s fundamental macroeconomic weaknesses and raise questions on the long-term trajectory of Turkey’s creditworthiness.
  2. Increasing downside risks to Turkey’s macroeconomic stability stemming from external vulnerabilities caused by: i) a widened, largely debt-financed current account deficit; ii) steep depreciation of the Turkish lira against the US dollar and deterioration in the inflation outlook, with a to date incoherent policy response; iii) the negative impact of currency devaluations alongside more challenging global external financing conditions on the Turkish private sector, which has significant foreign-currency and external-debt exposures; and iv) the impact of balance of payments weaknesses on modest levels of international reserves.

The placement of Turkey’s sovereign ratings under review for downgrade reflects changes in Scope’s assessments in the ‘external economic risk’ and ‘domestic economic risk’ categories of its sovereign methodology. Turkey’s BB+ ratings remain supported, however, by the country’s high growth potential and large, diversified economy, flexible exchange rate regime, sound public finances, and aspects of resilience within the banking sector.

The first driver underpinning Scope’s decision to place Turkey’s sovereign ratings under review for downgrade is Scope’s view that Turkey’s economic policy predictability and credibility has deteriorated both before and following the presidential and parliamentary elections of 24 June, given governance changes and policy decisions that have raised questions on the direction of economic management and Turkey’s credit trajectory over a longer time window. President Tayyip Erdogan’s term and mandate to guide the economy now extends until 2023.

President Erdogan’s electoral victory has given him extremely broad powers in the new Executive Presidency. These capacities range from the ability to rule by decree to the means to stamp out dissent (evidenced in the July dismissals of more than 18,000 civil servants) to greater influence over monetary policy. Post-election economic governance reorganisations, including the appointment of Erdogan’s son-in-law as Minister of Treasury and Finance, departures of economic-moderates such as former Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, and alterations in the appointment procedure for the central bank governor and monetary policy committee (MPC) members have cumulatively raised doubts in the administration’s resolve to rebalance the economy onto a more sustainable footing.

The Turkish central bank’s decision function, MPC governance changes, alongside the President’s statements on his greater role in setting monetary policy alongside a preference for lower rates, have increased concerns around the independence of monetary policy and increased uncertainty surrounding future rate decisions. For example, the market had priced in an interest rate hike of around 100 bps at the central bank’s MPC meeting on 24 July. The outcome of this meeting – to maintain the policy rate at 17.75% – has damaged investor confidence. In Scope’s view, the unpredictable and frequently overly reactionary monetary policy decision framework risk further bouts of market turbulence with increasing spill-over onto the real economy.

At the same time, fiscal performance has worsened in recent years, with a budget balance of -2.3% of GDP in 2017, down from -1.3% of GDP as of 2015. Pre-election spending caused further deterioration in the general government balance over the first six months of 2018. Scope anticipates the general government deficit to widen to 2.9% of GDP in 2018, reflecting partly the slowing economy’s impact on fiscal revenue growth. In addition, government bond yields have risen significantly, making debt financing more expensive. In general, in Scope’s view, a reorientation in Turkey’s economic agenda favouring lower but more sustainable economic growth, including via structural economic reform, is the most direct route to increasing the credibility of Turkey’s policy-making institutions, stabilising the lira, and, in turn, supporting a stabilisation in Turkey’s rating trajectory.

The second driver underpinning the decision to place the ratings under review for downgrade is the increased risks to Turkey’s macroeconomic stability facilitated by external vulnerabilities.

Turkey’s current account deficit has widened this year, to 6.3% of GDP in the 12 months to May 2018 (from 3.3% of GDP in the 12 months to May 2016), on the back of energy price hikes alongside elevated economic growth and domestic demand. Scope expects that higher oil prices and higher interest payments will result in a current account deficit of 6.8% of GDP in the full year 2018 from 5.6% in 2017, before narrowing slightly to 6% of GDP in 2019. Moreover, the current account deficit is largely fuelled via less stable forms of external financing, exposing Turkey to greater vulnerabilities of capital account reversals in a more challenging global interest rate environment and wider emerging market stresses.

Next, the Turkish lira has devalued by 22% against the US dollar (to 4.9 at the time of this writing) and 19% on a nominal trade-weighted basis since the beginning of 2018. With the pass-through of currency declines, inflation reached 15.4% YoY in June—the highest level since December 2003 and well above the central bank target of 5%. This has forced a central bank tightening of 500 bps since December 2017. However, the inflation outlook is worsening, and Scope expects headline inflation to peak at around 17% in September 2018, reducing the real policy rate and risking a longer-lasting de-anchoring of inflation expectations.

The significant lira depreciation has meaningful implications on open net foreign exchange positions of the private sector, totalling USD 223bn in Q1 2018. High levels of foreign exchange liabilities increase the vulnerability of firms with insufficient foreign exchange income and assets or with maturity mismatches on balance sheets. Firms and households are also simultaneously stressed by tighter domestic borrowing conditions, with bank lending rates to commercial enterprises increasing to 23.5% in June, from 15.2% in January 2018.

Turkey’s gross external financing needs will remain around USD 240bn in 2018 and next year, up from around USD 220bn in 2017. Gross external debt totalled 52.8% of GDP in Q1 2018. In addition, modest gross international reserves of USD 130.9bn (106% of short-term external debt) as of May 2018 are at risk of further decline. Given Turkey’s sizeable external financing needs of approximately 30% of GDP per annum, declining reserves may exacerbate balance of payments stresses.

At the same time, Scope notes that Turkey’s BB+ credit ratings are underpinned by continued strength in public finances with a large tax base and strong tax revenue growth, moderate public-debt burden and resilient debt structure (though 42% of central government debt is in foreign currency), reducing to an extent Turkey’s vulnerability to shocks. Despite budgetary deterioration, Turkey’s deficit remains at manageable levels and the public-debt ratio stands at only 28.4% of GDP as of Q1 2018 – below that of ‘bb’-rated sovereign peers. Under Scope’s debt sustainability analysis, Turkey’s general government debt ratio is forecast to remain under 35% of GDP over the medium term, reflecting in part the low risk of crystallisation of modest though rising contingent liabilities, which are mostly in the form of PPP-infrastructure projects.

In addition, Turkey benefits from a large, diversified economy (with nominal GDP of USD 849bn in 2017), supported further by a flexible exchange rate. Real growth in the first quarter of 2018 was 7.4% year-over-year. Scope expects economic growth to remain strong at 4-5% in 2018 and 2019, assuming some rebalancing in the economy owing to tighter economic and financial conditions but boosted by external demand.

Bank profitability has been affected by the weaker economic environment. Despite higher financing costs, external-debt roll-over of banks has continued at a rate of above 100%. While restructuring of large corporate loans has seen a limited increase, mostly in the form of maturity extensions, the quality of loan portfolios has remained stable with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio falling to below 3% of total loans. This reflects areas of resilience within the banking sector, including a favourable structure of external debt, enabling the sector to bridge short-lived market shutdowns. Moreover, banking sector capitalisation, supported by adequate NPL provisions, is sufficient to absorb moderate shocks, but remains sensitive to further lira depreciation given the high level of foreign currency loans on bank balance sheets and the risk of asset quality deterioration.

Core Variable Scorecard (CVS) and Qualitative Scorecard (QS)

Scope’s Core Variable Scorecard (CVS), which is based on relative rankings of key sovereign credit fundamentals, signals an indicative “BB” (“bb”) rating range for the Republic of Turkey. This indicative rating range can be normally adjusted by the Qualitative Scorecard (QS) by up to three notches depending on the size of relative credit strengths or weaknesses versus peers based on qualitative analysis.

For the Republic of Turkey, the following relative credit strengths have been identified: i) the growth potential of the economy; ii) economic policy framework; iii) fiscal policy framework; iv) public-debt sustainability; v) market access and funding sources; and vi) banking sector oversight and governance. Relative credit weaknesses are: i) macro-economic stability and sustainability; ii) current account vulnerabilities; iii) vulnerability to short-term external shocks; iv) recent events and policy decisions; and v) geo-political risk.

The combined relative credit strengths and weaknesses indicate an upward adjustment and signal a sovereign rating of BB+ for Turkey. A rating committee has discussed and affirmed these results.

Outlook and rating-change drivers

Scope will use the review period to further assess the direction of policy-making and the extent of the administration’s commitment to address the country’s macroeconomic challenges.

The ratings could be downgraded if, individually or collectively: i) fiscal, monetary and economic policies remain inconsistent with a rebalancing in the economy in favour of lower, but more sustainable, economic growth, failing to reduce inflation and macroeconomic vulnerabilities; ii) macroeconomic instability is accentuated via further external deterioration and/or shocks, undermining Turkey’s modest international reserve levels and exacerbating the balance of payments crisis; and/or iii) further institutional degradation or renewed security concerns arose, sparking market turbulence and interfacing with Turkey’s external vulnerabilities.

Conversely, the ratings could be confirmed at BB+ if: i) credible fiscal, monetary and economic policies were to be adopted, suspending market volatility and providing enhanced clarity on policies that rebalance the economy towards more sustainable growth and lower inflation; ii) the country’s external vulnerabilities were reduced, including its reliance on volatile forms of capital inflows, resulting in a lower and more sustainably financed current account deficit; and/or iii) the deterioration in Turkey’s governance framework reversed, underpinning greater confidence in the nation’s economic policy framework.

In Scope’s view, an upgrade is highly unlikely in the near term.

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Lockdown 2.0 – Here’s how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room



Lockdown 2.0 – Here's how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room 1

By Jeff Carlson, author of The Photographer’s Guide to Luminar 4 and Take Control of Your Digital Photos

suggests “the product you’re creating is not the camera, the lens or a webcam’s clever industrial design. It’s the subject, you, which is just on e part of the entire image they see. You want that image to convey quality, not convenience.”

Technology experts at Reincubate saw an opportunity in the rise of remote-working video calls and developed the app, Camo, to improve the video quality of our webcam calls. As part of this, they consulted the digital photography expert and author, Jeff Carlson, to reveal how we can look our best online. 

It’s clear by now that COVID-19 has normalised remote working, but as part of this the importance of video calls has risen exponentially. While we’re all used to seeing the more casual sides of our colleagues (t-shirt and shorts, anyone?), poor webcam quality is slightly less forgivable.

But how can we improve how we look on video? We consulted Jeff Carlson for some top tips– here is what he had to say.

  1. Improve the picture quality of your call

The better your camera, the higher quality your webcam calls will be. Most webcams (as well as currently being hard to get hold of and expensive), are subpar. A DSLR setup will give you the best picture, but will cost $1,500+. You can also use your iPhone’s amazing camera as a webcam, using the new app from Reincubate, Camo.

Jeff’s comments “The iPhone’s camera system features dedicated coprocessors for evaluating and adjusting the image in real time. Apple has put a tremendous amount of work into its imaging software as a way to compensate for the necessarily small camera sensors. Although it all works in service of creating stills and video, you get the same benefits when using the iPhone as a webcam.”

Aidan Fitzpatrick, CEO of Reincubate explains why the team created Camo, “Earlier this year our team moved to working remotely, and in video calls everyone looked pretty bad, irrespective of whether they were on built-in Mac webcams or third-party ones. Thus began my journey to build Camo: an iPhone has one of the world’s best cameras in it, so could we make it work as a webcam? Category-leading webcams are noticeably worse than an iPhone 7. This makes sense: six weeks of Apple’s R&D spend tops Logitech’s annual gross revenue.”

  1. Place your camera at eye level

A video call will never quite be the same as a face-to-face conversation, but bringing your camera up to eye level is a good place to start. That can involve putting your laptop on a stand or pile of books, mounting a webcam to the top of your display screen, or even using a tripod to get the perfect position.

Jeff points out, “If the camera is looking down on you, you’ll appear minimized in the frame; if it’s looking up, you’re inviting people to focus on your chin, neck, or nostrils. Most important, positioning the camera off your eye level is a distraction. Look them in the eye, even if they’re miles or continents away.

Lockdown 2.0 – Here's how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room 2

Low camera placement from a MacBook

  1. Make the most of natural lighting

Be aware of the lighting in the room and move yourself to face natural lighting if you can. Positioning the camera so any natural light is behind you takes the light away from your face, which can make it harder to see and read expressions on a call.

Jeff Carlson’s top tip: “If the light from outside is too harsh, diffuse it and create softer shadows by tacking up a white sheet or a stand-alone diffuser over the window.” 

Lockdown 2.0 – Here's how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room 3Lockdown 2.0 – Here's how to be the best-looking person in the virtual room 4

Backlit against a window Facing natural light

  1. Use supplementary lighting like ring lights

The downside to natural lighting is that you’re at the mercy of the elements: if it’s too bright you’ll have the sun in your eyes, if it’s too dark you won’t be well lit.

Jeff recommends adding supplementary lighting if you’re looking to really enhance your video calls. After all, it looks like remote working will be carrying on for quite some time.

“The light can be just as easy as a household or inexpensive work light. Angle the light so it’s bouncing off a wall or the ceiling, depending on your work area, which, again, diffuses the light and makes it more flattering.

Or, for a little money, use a softbox or a shoot-through umbrella with daylight bulbs (5500K temperature), or if space is tight, LED panels. Larger lights are better for distributing illumination– don’t be afraid to get them in close to you. Placement depends on the look you’re going after; start by positioning one at a 45-degree angle in front and to the side of you, which lights most of your face while retaining nice shadow detail.” 

In some cases, a ring light may work best. LEDs are arranged in a circle, with space in the middle to put the camera’s lens and get direct illumination from the direction of the camera.

  1. Centre yourself in the frame

Make sure you’re getting the right angle and that you’re using the frame effectively.

“You should aim for people to see your head and part of your torso, not all the space between your hair and the ceiling. Leave a little space above your head so it’s not cut off, but not enough that someone’s eyes are going to drift there.”

  1. Be mindful of your backdrop

It’s not always easy to get the quiet space needed for video calls when working from home, but try as best you can to remove anything too distracting from your background.

“Get rid of clutter or anything that’s distracting or unprofessional, because you can bet that will be the second thing the viewers notice after they see you. (The Twitter account @RateMySkypeRoom is an amusing ongoing commentary on the environments people on television are connecting from.)”

A busy background as seen by a webcam

  1. Make the most of virtual backgrounds

If you’re really struggling with finding a background that looks professional, try using a virtual background.

Jeff suggests: “Some apps can identify your presence in the scene and create a live mask that enables you to use an entirely different image to cover the background. While it’s a fun feature, the quality of the masking is still rudimentary, even with a green screen background that makes this sort of keying more accurate.”

  1. Be aware of your audio settings

Our laptop webcams, cameras, and mobile phones all include microphones, but if it’s at all possible, use a separate microphone instead.

“That can be an inexpensive lavalier mic, a USB microphone, or a set of iPhone earbuds. You can also get wireless lavalier models if you’re moving around during a call, such as presenting at a whiteboard in the camera’s field of view.

The idea is to get the microphone closer to your mouth so it’s recording what you say, not other sounds or echoes in the room. If you type during meetings, mount the mic on an arm instead of resting it on the same surface as your keyboard.”

  1. Be wary of video app add-ons

Video apps like Zoom include a ‘Touch up your appearance’ option in the Video settings. This applies a skin-smoothing filter to your face, but more often than not, the end result looks artificially blurry instead of smooth.

“Zoom also includes settings for suppressing persistent and intermittent background noise, and echo cancellation. They’re all set to Auto by default, but you can choose how aggressive or not the feature is.”

  1. Be the best looking person in the virtual room

What’s important to remember about video calls at this point in time is that most people are new to what is, really, personal broadcasting. That means you can easily get an edge, just by adopting a few suggestions in this article. When your video and audio quality improves, people will take notice.

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Bringing finance into the 21st Century – How COVID and collaboration are catalysing digital transformation



Bringing finance into the 21st Century – How COVID and collaboration are catalysing digital transformation 5

By Keith Phillips, CEO of TISATech

If just six or seven months ago someone had told you that in a matter of weeks people around the world would be locked down in their homes, trying to navigate modern work systems from a prehistoric laptop, bickering with family over who’s hogging the Wi-Fi, migrating online to manage all financial services digitally, all while washing their hands every five minutes in fear of a global pandemic… You’d think they had lost their mind. But this very quickly became the reality for huge swathes of the world and we’re about to go through that all over again as the UK government has asked that those who can work from home should.

Unsurprisingly, statistics show that lockdown restrictions introduced by the UK government in March, led to a sharp increase in people adopting digital services. Banks encouraged its customers to log onto online banking, as they limited (and eventually halted) services at branches. This forced many customers online as their primary means of managing personal finances for the first time.

If anyone had doubts before, the Covid-19 pandemic proved to us the importance of well-functioning, effective digital financial services platforms, for both financial institutions and the people using them.

But with this sudden mass online migration, it’s become clear that traditional banks have struggled to keep up with servicing clients virtually. Legacy banking systems have always stilted the digitisation of financial services, but the pandemic thrust this issue into the limelight. Fintech firms, which focus intently on digital and mobile services, knew it was only a matter of time before financial institutions’ reliance was to increase at an unprecedented rate.

For years, fintechs have been called upon by traditional players to find solutions to problems borne from those clunky legacy systems, like manual completion of account changes and money transfers. Now it is the demand for these services to be online coupled with the need for financial services firms to cut costs, since Covid-19 hit the economy.

Covid-19 has catalysed the urgent need to bring digital transformation to a wider pool of financial services businesses. Customers now have even higher expectations of larger institutions, demanding that they keep up with what the younger and more nimble challengers have to offer. Industry leaders realise that they must transform their businesses as soon as possible, by streamlining and digitising operations to compete and, ultimately, improve services for their customers.

The race for digital acceleration began far before the recent pandemic – in fact, following the 2008 financial crisis is likely more accurate. Since the credit crunch, there has been a wave of new fintech firms, full of young, bright techies looking to be the next big thing. Fintechs have marketed themselves hard at big conferences and expos or by hosting ‘hackathons’, trying to prove themselves as the fastest, most innovative or the most vital to the future of the industry.

However, even during this period where accelerating innovation in online financial services and legacy systems is crucial, the conditions brought about by the pandemic have not been conducive to this much-needed transformation.

The second issue, which again was clear far before the pandemic, is that fact that no matter how nimble or clever the fintechs’ solutions are, it is still hard to implement the solutions seamlessly, as the sector is highly fragmented with banks using extremely outdated systems populated with vast amounts of data.

With the significance of the pandemic becoming more and more clear, and the need for better digital products and services becoming more crucial to financial services firms and consumers by the day, the industry has finally come together to provide a solution.

The TISAtech project was launched last month by The Investing and Saving Alliance (TISA), a membership organisation in the UK with more than 200 leading financial institutions as members. TISA asked The Disruption House, a specialist benchmarking and data analytics business, to create a clearing house platform for the industry to help it more effectively integrate new financial technology. The project aims to enhance products and services while reducing friction and ultimately lowering costs which are passed on to the customers.

With nearly 4,000 fintechs from around the world participating, it will be the world’s largest marketplace dedicated to Open Finance, Savings, and Investment.

Not only will it provide a ‘matchmaking’ service between financial institutions an fintechs, it will also host a sandbox environment. Financial institutions can pose real problems with real data and the fintechs are given the space to race to the bottom – to find the most constructive, cost-effective solution.

Yes, there are other marketplaces, but they all seem to struggle to achieve a return on investment. There is a genuine need for the ‘Trivago’ of financial technology – a one stop shop, run by an independent body, which can do more than just matchmaking. It needs to go above and beyond to encompass the sandboxing, assessments, profiling of fintechs to separate the wheat from the chaff, and provide a space for true collaboration.

The pandemic has taught us that we are more effective if we work together. We need mass support and collaboration to find solutions to problems. Businesses and industries are no different. If fintechs and financial institutions can work together, there is a real chance that we can start to lessen the economic hit for many businesses and consumers by lowering costs and streamlining better services and products. And even if it is just making it that little bit easier to manage personal finances from home when fighting with your children for the Wi-Fi, we are making a difference.

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What to Know Before You Expand Across Borders



What to Know Before You Expand Across Borders 6

By Sean King, Director of International Tax at McGuire Sponsel

The American retail giant, Target Corporation, has a market cap of $64 billion and access to seemingly limitless resources and advisors. So, when the company engaged in its first global expansion, how could anything possibly go wrong?

Less than two years after opening its first Canadian store in 2013, Target shut down all133 Canadian locations and terminated more than 17,000 Canadian employees.

Expansion of an operation to another country can create unique challenges that may impact the financial viability of the entire enterprise. If Target Corporation can colossally fail in its expansion to Canada, how might Mom ‘N’ Pop LLC fare when expanding into Switzerland, Singapore, or Australia?

Successful global expansion requires an understanding of multilayered taxes, regulatory hurdles, employment laws, and cultural nuances. Fortunately, with the right guidance, global expansion can be both possible and profitable for businesses of any size.

Permanent establishment

Any company with global ambitions must first consider whether the company’s expansion outside of the U.S. will give rise to a taxable presence in the local country. In the cross-border context, a “permanent establishment” can be created in a local country when the enterprise reaches a certain level of activity, which is problematic because it exposes the U.S. multinational to taxation in the foreign country.

Foreign entity incorporation

To avoid permanent establishment risk, many U.S. multinationals choose to operate overseas through a formal corporate subsidiary, which reduces the company’s foreign income tax exposure, though it may result in an additional level of foreign income tax on the subsidiary’s earnings. In most jurisdictions, multinationals can operate their business in the foreign country as a branch, a pass through (e.g., partnership,) or a corporation.

As a branch, the U.S. multinational does not create a subsidiary in the foreign country. It holds assets, employees, and bank accounts under its own name. With a pass through, the U.S. multinational creates a separate entity in the foreign country that is treated as a partnership under the tax law of the foreign country but not necessarily as a partnership under U.S. tax law.

U.S. multinationals can also create corporate subsidiaries in the foreign country treated as corporations under the tax law of both the foreign country and the U.S., with possibly two levels of income taxation in the foreign country plus U.S. income taxation of earnings repatriated to the U.S. as dividends.

Check-the-box planning

Under U.S. entity classification rules, certain types of entities can “check the box” to elect their classification to be taxed as a corporation with two levels of tax, a partnership with pass-through taxation, or even be disregarded for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The check the box election allows U.S. multinationals to engage in more effective global tax planning.

Toll charges, transfer pricing and treaties

When establishing a foreign corporate subsidiary, the U.S. multinational will likely need to transfer certain assets to the new entity to make it fully operational. However, in many cases, the U.S. multinational cannot perform the transfer without recognizing taxable income. In the international context, the IRS imposes certain outbound “toll charges” on the transfer of appreciated property to a foreign entity, which are usually provided for in IRC Section 367 and subject to various exceptions and nuances.

Instead, the U.S. multinational may prefer to license intellectual property to the foreign subsidiary for a fee rather than transfer the property outright. However, licensing requires the company and foreign subsidiary to adhere to transfer pricing rules, as dictated by IRC Section 482. The U.S. multinational and the foreign subsidiary must interact in an arms-length manner regarding pricing and economic terms. Furthermore, any such arrangement may attract withholding taxes when royalties are paid across a border.

Are you GILTI?

Certain U.S. multinationals opt to focus on deferring the income recognition at the U.S. level. In doing so, they simply leave overseas profits overseas and delay repatriating any of the earnings to the U.S.

Despite the general merits of this form of planning, U.S. multinationals will be subject to certain IRS anti-deferral mechanisms, commonly known as “Subpart F” and GILTI. Essentially, U.S. shareholders of certain foreign corporations are forced to recognize their pro rata share of certain types of income generated by these foreign entities at the time the income is earned instead of waiting until the foreign entity formally repatriates the income to the U.S.

The end goal

Essentially, all effective international tax planning boils down to treasury management. Effective and early tax planning can properly allow a company to better achieve its initial goal: profitability.

If global expansion is on the horizon for your company, consult a licensed professional for advice concerning your specific situation.

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