World stocks gain, US yields fall at start of jam-packed week

By Chris Prentice and Wayne Cole

NEW YORK/SYDNEY (Reuters) -Global stocks advanced and longer-dated U.S. yields slipped on Monday, at the start of a week jammed with earnings and a trio of central bank meetings that could see the United States and Britain open the door to interest rate cuts.

U.S. jobs data for July, closely watched surveys on U.S. and global manufacturing, and euro zone gross domestic product and inflation data are all due later this week.

The markets were jittery ahead of Big Tech earnings and concern over the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Big Tech stocks were up, but off the day’s highs.

S&P 500 companies representing about 40% of index’s market value will report this week, including tech darlings Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook-parent Meta Platforms.

“The market is fearful that if the Big Tech names disappoint, it could drag on the entire market. The markets were up handily and then we saw them pull back,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The U.S. Treasury will outline its bond sale plans for the quarter, while China’s politburo meeting could produce more stimulus following surprise rate cuts last week.

After a benign June inflation report, markets are wagering that the Federal Reserve will lay the groundwork for a September rate cut at the close of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing and even imply a 12% chance of 50 basis points in cuts, and have 68 basis points of easing priced in by December.

“The FOMC is set to hold steady but is likely to revise its statement to hint that a cut at the following meeting in September has become more likely,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs in a note.

“We now see the risks to the Fed path as tilted slightly to the downside of our baseline of quarterly rate cuts, though not quite as much as market pricing implies.”

The Bank of Japan also meets on Wednesday, and markets imply a 70% chance it will hike rates by 10 basis points to 0.2%, with some chance it could move by 15 basis points.

Investors are less sure whether the Bank of England will ease at its meeting on Thursday, with futures showing a 51% probability of a cut.

EARNINGS TEST

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe rose 1.03 points, or 0.13%, to 804.51.

European shares eased as investors remained risk averse. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed 0.2% lower, with autos the biggest decliner among major sectors.

The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rose on Monday, buoyed by megacap stocks, while the Dow Jones ended down.

The S&P 500 gained 4.44 points, or 0.08%, to 5,463.54 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 12.32 points, or 0.07%, to 17,370.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 49.41 points, or 0.12%, to 40,539.93.

With expectations for earnings high, any hint of disappointment will test the mega-caps’ sky-high valuations.

“With some sizeable moves implied by the options market for the individual names on the day of reporting, movement at a stock level could resonate across other plays within their sector and potentially promote volatility,” said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone.

“Company earnings don’t come much bigger than Microsoft, where the options market implies a move (higher or lower) of 4.7% – the after-market session on Tuesday could get lively.”

In currency markets, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, gained 0.18% at 104.56

The euro retreated 0.33% at $1.0821.

The Japanese yen traded at 153.99.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3 basis points to 4.171%, a more than one-week trough.

In commodities markets, gold slipped as the dollar advanced. Spot prices lost 0.08% to $2,383.64 an ounce, and U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $2,377.80.[GOL/]

Oil prices fell in volatile trading. Israeli officials said they wanted to avoid an all-out war in the Middle East following a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which Israel and the United States attributed to Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. [O/R]

Brent crude oil futures settled down 1.7% at $79.78 a barrel. U.S. crude ended 1.8% lower at $75.81 a barrel.

(Reporting by Chris Prentice in New York, Wayne Cole in Sydney and Amanda Cooper in London;Editing by Christina Fincher and Stephen Coates)