Finance
Total expects steady Q4 as strong refining margins offset weak oil, LNG prices
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on January 20, 2026
3 min readLast updated: January 20, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on January 20, 2026
3 min readLast updated: January 20, 2026
TotalEnergies anticipates higher refining margins in Q4 2025, despite lower oil and LNG sales. European refining margins rose 231%, offsetting lower crude prices.
By America Hernandez
Jan 20 - TotalEnergies expects fourth-quarter 2025 results to be in line with the previous year, as higher fuel refining margins and cash from selling stakes in renewable assets offset weaker oil and liquefied natural gas prices.
"The cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive upstream production growth and continued improvement of downstream results," it said in a trading statement.
Shares were up 0.73% at 56.54 euros in morning trading, while the broader European energy sector fell 1.2%.
RESULTS BUCK MAJORS' GENERAL DECLINING TREND
Total's fourth-quarter bucked a general declining trend among majors, and "the company was able to capture the short term refining strength, while the new barrels in the upstream appear to be driving cash flow accretion," RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria wrote in an investor note.
"It is notable that year-on-year, Total's fourth-quarter cash flow from operations is flat on RBC's estimates, versus Shell down 19% over the same period," he said.
Earlier this month, BP and Shell flagged weak oil trading results, as Brent crude prices dropped to $63.73 a barrel in October-to-December due to oversupply fears.
SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL HELP REFINING MARGINS
Total's European refining margin marker rose to $85.7 per metric ton in the fourth quarter, up 231% from a year earlier.
In October, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said he expected refining margins in Europe to rise due to U.S. sanctions and EU restrictions on Russian energy.
Downstream marketing and services results are expected to be up about 5% year-on-year.
TotalEnergies said it boosted upstream oil and gas volumes to compensate for lower prices, leading to 5% year-on-year production growth. As a result, the decline in upstream results will be $6 per barrel, rather than the actual $11-per-barrel drop in crude prices.
Integrated LNG results will be in line with the third quarter of 2025 — a 40% drop year-on-year.
That's partially due to LNG prices falling 18% year-on-year and planned maintenance at the Australian Ichthys LNG project, which came back online in November.
Integrated power cash flow is expected to have risen in the fourth quarter, due to several minority stakes in renewable assets being sold, leading the segment to achieve annual cash flow of $2.5 billion.
(Reporting by Dimitri Rhodes in Gdansk, Editing by Louise Heavens and Bernadette Baum)
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that has been cooled to a liquid state for ease of storage and transport. It is primarily composed of methane.
Downstream results refer to the financial performance of the oil industry related to refining, distribution, and sale of petroleum products, as opposed to upstream activities like exploration and production.
Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. It is extracted from the ground and refined into various fuels.
A quarterly performance report is a financial document that summarizes a company's performance over a three-month period, including revenue, expenses, and profit margins.
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