Finance
Oil Prices Fall on Supply Forecast, Easing Risk
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 12, 2026
3 min readLast updated: February 12, 2026
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Oil prices fell by $2 a barrel due to supply forecasts and reduced demand, influenced by geopolitical factors and U.S. crude inventory increases.
Oil Prices Decline Amid Supply Surge and Diminished Geopolitical Tensions
Market Dynamics and Supply Outlook
By Erwin Seba
HOUSTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped on Thursday due to falling demand, retreating fears of renewed Middle East conflict and expected increases in supply.
Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.52 a barrel down $1.88, or 2.71%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $62.84 a barrel, down $1.79, or 2.77%.
Impact of Geopolitical Factors
Global oil demand will rise more slowly than previously expected this year, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, while projecting a sizeable surplus despite outages that cut supply in January.
U.S. Crude Inventory Trends
The Brent and WTI benchmarks reversed gains to turn negative after the IEA's monthly report, after deriving support earlier from concerns over the U.S.-Iran backdrop.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said as he was departing Washington that U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to be framing a resolution to the conflict with Iran over nuclear weapons.
"The fact that President Trump continues to negotiate with Iran would lead to a reduction of geopolitical risk," said Andrew Lipow, president of consultancy Lipow Oil Associates.
The IEA forecast offered a "pretty significant" reduction in demand for 2026, Lipow said.
"This market is anticipating an increase in supply from Venezuela," he said.
On Wednesday, Trump said after talks with Netanyahu that they had yet to reach a definitive agreement on how to move forward with Iran but that negotiations with Tehran would continue.
Trump said on Tuesday he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if a deal is not reached with Iran. The date and venue of the next round of talks have yet to be announced.
Global Oil Demand Projections
A hefty build in U.S. crude inventories had capped the early price gains. U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, far exceeding the 793,000 increase expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.
U.S. refinery utilisation rates dropped by 1.1 percentage points in the week to 89.4%, EIA data showed.
On the supply side, Russia's seaborne oil products exports in January rose by 0.7% from December to 9.12 million metric tons on high fuel output and a seasonal drop in domestic demand, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed.
(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston, Enes Tunagur in London, Sam Li and Lewis Jackson in BeijingEditing by David Gregorio, Rod Nickel and Nick Zieminski)
Key Takeaways
- •Oil prices fell by $2 a barrel due to supply forecast and demand shifts.
- •Brent crude and WTI crude both experienced significant price drops.
- •The IEA report predicts slower global oil demand growth.
- •Geopolitical tensions with Iran are influencing market dynamics.
- •U.S. crude inventories saw a significant increase last week.
Frequently Asked Questions about Oil prices fall on supply forecast, easing risk
1What is crude oil?
Crude oil is a natural, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. It is extracted from the ground and refined into various products like gasoline and diesel.
2What is supply and demand?
Supply and demand is an economic model that describes how prices fluctuate based on the availability of a product (supply) and the desire of consumers to purchase it (demand).
3What are oil futures?
Oil futures are contracts to buy or sell a specific amount of oil at a predetermined price on a specified future date. They are used by traders to hedge against price fluctuations.
