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ECONOMY MIGHT BE GROWING BUT PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IN UK’S PROSPECTS IS NOT, SAYS CISI SURVEY

Published by Gbaf News

Posted on May 31, 2014

2 min read
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CISI Survey Reveals Confidence Gap

While the UK economy is growing, public confidence in the country’s prospects is not, a CISI survey shows.

Of 600 respondents to an online survey, 60% said they were more optimistic for the country’s prospects than three months ago.

When the CISI last ran the survey in autumn 2013, the proportion of those who considered that the outlook was brighter was 1% higher, at 61%.

The stalling in the level of confidence follows a doubling in optimism from the spring 2013 survey to the poll last autumn

Housing Market Seen as Key Risk

Concern that the housing market is overheating was highlighted in the survey as the number one threat to the UK economy, which grew by 0.8% in the first three months of the year.

One contributor commented: “The further inflation of the housing bubble that was never allowed to burst in 2009 is likely to lead to interest rate rises. This risks choking the nascent recovery in the real economy.”

Another said: “The economy is vulnerable to any shocks to the housing market.”

However, on a brighter note, another respondent said: “I’m very optimistic and investing for the future.”

Survey Methodology and Participation

The Institute has run a twice-yearly poll since spring 2012 to gauge opinion about the state of the economy.

To take part in the latest CISI survey, see cisi.org

Optimism about UK economy:

Spring 2012: 42%

Autumn 2012: 27%

Spring 2013: 31%

Autumn 2013: 61%

Spring 2014: 60%.

Key Takeaways

  • UK economic growth continued with 0.8% GDP expansion in Q1 2014.
  • Public optimism rose modestly to 60% in Spring 2014, slightly below the 61% in Autumn 2013.
  • Housing market overheating is seen as the top threat, with risks of interest rate rises choking recovery.
  • Confidence jumped significantly from Spring 2013 (31%) to Autumn 2013 (61%), showing volatility in sentiment.

References

Frequently Asked Questions

What period did the CISI survey cover?
The survey was conducted online in Spring 2014 among 600 respondents, continuing the Institute’s twice‑yearly polling since Spring 2012.
How has UK public optimism changed over recent surveys?
Optimism has risen from 27% in Autumn 2012 to 31% in Spring 2013, jumped to 61% in Autumn 2013, and slightly declined to 60% in Spring 2014.
What was seen as the main threat to the UK economy?
Survey respondents highlighted an overheating housing market as the number one threat, warning that rising interest rates could choke the recovery.
What was the UK GDP growth in early 2014?
The UK economy grew by 0.8% during the first three months of 2014, underscoring the disconnect between strong macro data and public confidence.

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