New index provides insights on actual offshore RMB usage and future RMB adoption by Hong Kong corporations
Survey indicates a real need for RMB hedging products; growth of cross-border RMB transactions expected to accelerate
HONG KONG, 16 JANUARY 2013 – DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited today announced the launch of its first-in-town DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises (“DRIVE”), offering a strategic tool for policy-makers, businesses and investors to track the actual usage and acceptance of RMB among Hong Kong companies as well as their sentiment towards future RMB adoption.
A more comprehensive and in-depth benchmark for the market
Although macroeconomic data on the circulation of offshore RMB are widely available, they are not able to offer an in-depth perspective on the developmental progress of Hong Kong as an offshore RMB centre. By focusing on the level of RMB usage and acceptance among Hong Kong-registered companies, this index aims to serve as the first benchmark to measure the pace of RMB internationalisation in Hong Kong.
Future readings allow companies to seize opportunities
DRIVE is a composite index based on questions that measure four key dimensions driving business adoption and internationalisation of RMB in Hong Kong for both local and global transactions. These four dimensions are: (1) Actual business performance in the last 12 months and expectations for the next 12 months as the underlying conditions driving corporate demand for RMB; (2) Past and future demand for RMB in business operations; (3) Usage of RMB for trade settlement; and (4) Ease of access to RMB financing.
For the fourth quarter of 2012, the index value is 54.9 and all future readings of the index will be analysed in relation to this initial reading. Subsequent index values will be released on a quarterly basis and over time will reveal a lot more about the pace of development of Hong Kong as an offshore RMB centre. Corresponding policy recommendations can be drawn from analysing the future time series. In future, the index may be extended to cover other countries which are also offshore RMB centres.
Alex Cheung, Managing Director and Head of Institutional Banking Group, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited said, “As an Asian bank, DBS is committed to leveraging our Asian insights to help corporate clients capture opportunities in the region. In particular, we are able to ride on our seamless Hong Kong-China connectivity and expertise to help our clients participate in the growth of China. The launch of DRIVE is timely and we hope it will be an insightful tool to help better understand the internationalisation of RMB in Hong Kong.”
Survey indicates a real need for RMB hedging products
In the accompanying survey, nearly half of the companies interviewed said that the appreciation of RMB had a negative impact on their profit margins. This is particularly evident in companies engaged in low value-added production which mainly procure raw materials from mainland China and export finished products to overseas markets. Companies which used to rely on economies of scale and cheap labour face the risk of being squeezed out of the market. To raise their competitiveness, these enterprises should review their business models and be more cost-effective. In the course of such transformation, enterprises can make use of hedging products to reduce their exposure to exchange rate fluctuations.
Alex Cheung said, “DBS has been at the forefront of new Asian product innovation and we were among the first to offer offshore RMB products to our Hong Kong customers. The survey reveals there is a real need for RMB hedging products among local companies to reduce their foreign currency risk exposure. At DBS, we offer clients flexible offshore CNH FX structures with combinations of forwards and options and other tailor-made solutions to hedge and manage RMB exposure. CNH Cross Currency Swap is another product widely used by our clients to manage their borrowing
and debt exposures so as to minimise funding costs and achieve efficiency in asset and liability management. We will continue to offer innovative and competitive products and services and tailor-made Asian-centric solutions based on insights to meet the needs of businesses and help them seize the opportunities for sustainable growth.”
Rapid growth expected in RMB cross-border trade settlement
In the past 12 months, only 9% of companies that used trade services had settled payments in RMB; another 26% will consider to start using RMB for payment settlement in the next 12 months.
Chris Leung, Senior Economist, Group Research, DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited said, “The findings are consistent with the official figures released by the People’s Bank of China, which indicated that around 11% of China’s trade was settled in RMB in the first thee quarters of 2012. Compared with 80% of trade in the US invoiced in US dollars, about half of Europe’s trade settled in euro, and 30% of Japan’s trade invoiced in Japanese yen, RMB trade settlement is considered to be still in its infancy stage. There is still ample room for its growth. We expect corporate RMB usage will continue to gain traction as channels for the flowing back of RMB onshore increases.”
Opportunity to extend RMB loan business
According to the survey, a negligible number of respondents are currently using RMB loan services, which is highly attributable to policy development. There are currently not many channels for using RMB loans, other than direct investment into and trade on the mainland. There is a lack of incentive for offshore companies to obtain RMB financing.
As of November last year, outstanding RMB loans from financial institutions in Hong Kong were only RMB 70 billion, lagging behind the development of the overall offshore market. RMB deposits in Hong Kong were about RMB 570 billion, while outstanding dim sum bonds reached RMB 400 billion.
However, DBS still holds a positive view on the prospects of RMB development by banks in Hong Kong. In order to boost RMB lending business for banks in Hong Kong, the regulatory authorities began to relax RMB lending restrictions last year and introduced measures allowing the industry to fix their own RMB outstanding net open positions and modify the calculation of the ratio of current assets. Also, the Qianhai cross-border loan pilot programme is now in full swing. The size of the programme is expected to gradually expand after its launch, providing an access to RMB funds held by banks in Hong Kong.
DBS will announce the DBS RMB Index for VVinning Enterprises on a quarterly basis. Fieldwork for the inaugural wave was conducted between October to December 2012 through telephone interviews with business owners and decision makers of over 200 companies in Hong Kong.
Mining magnets: Arctic island finds green power can be a curse
By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Eric Onstad
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) – In the tenth century, Erik the Red, a Viking from Iceland, was so impressed with the vegetation on another Arctic island he had found he called it “the green land.” Today, it’s Greenland’s rocks that are attracting outsiders – superpowers riding a green revolution.
The world’s biggest island has huge resources of metals known as ‘rare earths,’ used to create compact, super-strong magnets which help power equipment such as wind turbines, electric vehicles, combat aircraft and weapons systems.
The metals are abundant globally, but processing them is difficult and dirty – so much so that the United States, which used to dominate production, surrendered that position to China about 20 years ago.
As Greenland’s ice sheet and glaciers recede, two Australia-based mining companies – one seeking funding in the United States, the other part-owned by a Chinese state-backed firm – are racing for approval to dig into what the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) calls the world’s biggest undeveloped deposits of rare earth metals.
The contest underscores the polluting side of clean energy, as well as how hard it is for the West to break free of China in production of a vital resource. Rare earth metals have many uses, and last year China produced about 90% of them, according to Toronto-based consultancy Adamas Intelligence. As U.S.-China tensions mount, President Joe Biden’s administration said last month it will review key U.S. supplies, including rare earths, to ensure other countries cannot weaponise them against the United States.
Each Greenland mine would cost about $500 million to develop, the companies say. Both plan to send mined material away for final processing, an activity that is heavily concentrated in China. The only rare earth mine now operating in the United States â€“ Mountain Pass in California â€“ is partly owned by a Chinese state-backed company that currently sends material mined in the U.S. to China for processing.
The Greenland sites are less than 16 km (10 miles) from each other at the southern tip of the island, near a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Debate on them has triggered a political crisis in the capital of Nuuk, forcing a general election on the island of 56,000, due in April. Many Greenlanders, while concerned about pollution, feel mining is key to develop their fragile economy. In a 2013 poll, just over half said they want raw materials to become the country’s main source of income.
The country may ultimately back either project, both, or neither, but for those Greenlanders open to mining, the two proposals boil down to a choice between one mine that would not produce radioactive material, and another that would.
The first mine, a private initiative from an Australian geologist who has presented it to U.S. officials, would not involve nuclear material. It has won preliminary environmental approval, but it needs cash and a processing plan.
The second one has already spent more than $100 million preparing to mine, has proven processing technology through its Chinese partner, and won initial political support from Greenland’s coalition government. But its plans include exporting uranium, a nuclear fuel, and it recently ran into strong opposition, including from residents of the nearby town of Narsaq.
“As indigenous people we have lived in harmony with nature for many, many years,” said Mariane Paviasen, an opposition lawmaker who lives in the town. “We use these lands to hunt and fish.”
Greenland, a self-governing territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, has a gross domestic product of around $3 billion – similar to Andorra and Burundi. With its people living mostly on fishing and grants from Copenhagen, its government is keen to attract foreign investments.
It does not have an estimate for royalties from the first project, but expects around 1.5 billion Danish crowns ($245 million) each year from the Chinese-linked one – equivalent to roughly 15% of public spending.
Greenland’s government did not respond to requests for comment for this story. Acting Minister of Resources Vittus Qujaukitsoq said last month that if Greenlanders suddenly decide they don’t want the second project, “we’ll make a fool of investors. The credibility of the whole country is at stake.”
Greenland’s rare earth metals are also a chance for America and Europe to regain control of a strategic resource.
The island’s potential as a source of the raw materials needed for renewable energy technologies gained momentum in 2010, when China threatened to cut off its supply of rare earth metals to Japan, and tightened quotas to international buyers.
Prices for some of the metals have jumped in recent months, driven by surging demand for electric vehicles as well as concerns that Beijing may restrict sales.
Greenland’s position near the eastern flank of the United States makes it a sensitive location. Former U.S. President Donald Trump offered to buy the island in 2019, and he was not the first U.S. president to do so: In 1946 Harry S. Truman offered Denmark $100 million for it. A defence treaty between Denmark and the United States dating back to 1951 gives the U.S. military almost unlimited rights there, and Greenland houses the northernmost U.S. military base.
Friedbert PflÃ¼ger, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, says the revenues generated by a major mine could give its owner leverage over policies in Greenland, and a strong Chinese presence there may pose strategic threats.
“The very presence of Chinese companies in Greenland could be used as justification for China to intervene,” said PflÃ¼ger, a former German politician and ex-deputy defence minister.
China’s foreign ministry said in a statement that such comments politicise economic and trade issues through “groundless speculation,” adding “China has always supported Chinese companies to carry out foreign economic cooperation in accordance with market principles and international rules.”
The U.S. State Department said: “We encourage our allies and partners to carefully review any investments… that could give China access to critical infrastructure in ways that compromise their security or allow China to exert undue, adverse influence over their domestic economies.”
Denmark, which handles foreign affairs and defence for Greenland, has in the past headed off Chinese involvement in infrastructure projects, which government sources say was because of security concerns. Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod declined to comment on the security implications of China’s involvement. But he told Reuters that Copenhagen’s close ties with the United States “should not be seen as an obstacle to commercial investments in Greenland.”
China is a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency, so it can import uranium from Greenland. But since the fuel is used in nuclear weapons, that would be sensitive. Copenhagen, which has the final say, declined to comment.
Trump’s offer for Greenland aimed to help address Chinese dominance of rare earth supplies. Those involved say he was partly following up on talks between U.S. officials and a privately held company called Tanbreez Mining Greenland A/S. Tanbreez is the owner of the first Greenland site – Kringlerne, or Killavaat Alannguat in Greenlandic.
The company’s owner, Australian geologist Greg Barnes, told Reuters he had met U.S. officials weeks before Trump made the offer, and the company website shows Barnes with them and the former U.S. ambassador to Denmark on a site visit. The USGS confirmed its officials had visited the site in 2019; Washington and a representative for the former president declined to comment.
Barnes said he had put A$50 million ($38.6 million) of his own cash into the Greenland project. New York-based investment banker Christopher Messina, managing director at capital markets advisory services firm Mannahatta Partners, is trying to assemble more financing. He says Kringlerne is “such a huge deposit that what comes out of it could satisfy manufacturing demands in the U.S. for years to come.”
Whether or not that pans out, Barnes says the metals produced by his project can be processed outside China, although he has not yet decided where, and declined to say at what cost.
He said the royalties it would generate for Greenland would be roughly the same as those promised by the China-linked plan. “We’ve managed to get our capital costs down without Chinese technology,” Barnes told Reuters.
The only major plant outside China that does the complex work of separating individual rare earth elements is in Malaysia. But others – including the Mountain Pass mine in the United States – are planning or have started to build such facilities.
“For the foreseeable future, China is going to be the major player in all of these supply chains simply because it’s so far advanced and because it’s not stopping and waiting for alternatives to catch up,” said Ryan Castilloux, head of Adamas.
Tanbreez says half the rare earth metals it mines would be lanthanum and cerium – relatively plentiful metals used in telescope lenses and auto catalysts to cut emissions. About a fifth would be yttrium, which is in demand for lasers and the superconductors used in quantum computing.
Neither of the Greenland projects would be pollution-free. Both plan for mined rock to be locally crushed and separated into concentrates to send for final processing.
Tanbreez’s mining waste will be piped to a lake which, while it does not contain fish, feeds a river with a large population of Arctic char. Turbid water could impact the char, according to the company’s environmental report, which says it plans to dump some 550 tonnes a day of waste material into the lake and will dam it to prevent disruption downstream.
Tanbreez’s plan has passed the public consultations stage and received a government permit in September. Now the company is working on parliament approval.
Both the Greenland projects, though run from Australia, are part of a European Union initiative, the European Raw Materials Alliance, to boost Europe’s output of critical minerals and cut dependence on China for rare earth metals..
The alliance, funded by the EU, is coordinating investment and providing seed money for European mines, processing plants and industries such as magnets.
Last year, the EU kick-started 10 billion euros ($12 billion) of investment into rare earth and other green-energy-related projects, and it says its demand for rare earth metals could surge as much as tenfold by 2050. It says China currently makes up 98% of its supply.
“This is a very critical period of time,” says the Alliance’s head, Bernd SchÃ¤fer. “We in Europe are facing raw materials scarcity on many levels and also the need for action.”
The rival mountaintop site not far from Tanbreez is called Kvanefjeld, or Kuannersuit in Greenlandic. For John Mair, managing director of its owner, Greenland Minerals Ltd, it’s a world-class opportunity at the right moment.
Kvanefjeld’s main offer is neodymium, needed for wind turbines. Brussels says the EU’s demand for the metal may reach 13,000 tonnes per year by 2050, three times more than it used in 2015. Neodymium is also used in combat aircraft.
Greenland Minerals is a listed firm in which Chinese company Shenghe Resources is the biggest shareholder, with just under 10%. Shenghe, which also has a similar size stake in Mountain Pass, declined to comment for this story.
Greenland Minerals, which bought its concession from Barnes, says its planned mine will, at least initially, send minerals it produces to China for final processing. It says it plans to find a site in Europe, but has not said when.
The company has a strong hand. Back in 2011, the estimated costs for setting up Kvanefjeld were $2.3 billion. By 2019, these shrank to $505 million, the company says: Shenghe, whose biggest shareholder is a state-run Chinese mineral research institute, has helped boost efficiency.
But Greenland Minerals faces public opposition. It is one step behind Tanbreez in the environmental vetting process – and its ores include significant amounts of radioactive materials.
When Greenland Minerals embarked on public consultations this year, protests erupted. At one meeting in Narsaq on Feb. 10, locals both inside and outside the hall banged windows and played loud music to disrupt presentations.
As opposition mounted, a small pro-mining party, Demokraatit, triggered a general election by pulling out of Greenland’s coalition in early February.
Polls suggest Greenland’s main opposition party, Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA), which has a zero-tolerance policy for uranium, will become the biggest in parliament, so would be first to try to form a new coalition.
“Our aim,” IA lawmaker and Narsaq resident Paviasen told Reuters, “is to halt the (Kvanefjeld) mining project.” But IA says it has not expressed opposition to Tanbreez, which is seen as less of a threat to the environment.
Kvanefjeld would dump much more waste than Tanbreez – about 8,500 tonnes each day – into a lake on top of the mountain, the Greenland Minerals plan says.
Greenland Minerals says any increase in background radiation from its Kvanefjeld mine will be minimal. It plans to build a concrete 45-meter dam to contain the radioactive waste and to spray water on the ground to keep the dust from blowing away.
The dam will be built to international standards to “withstand even the worst imaginable seismic activity,” it said in a report submitted to Greenland’s government last year.
Even so, residents say they worry contaminated water will seep into nearby rivers or that the dam will fail entirely. They cite the collapse of a mining dam in Brazil two years ago that killed 270 people.
As the crisis has deepened, Greenland Minerals’ shares have dropped by more than 50%. If the mine goes ahead, Paviasen says, many people plan to move away.
(Corrects 10th paragraph to delete China as destination for uranium exports)
(Reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen in Copenhagen and Eric Onstad in London; Additional reporting by Ernest Scheyder in Houston, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington and Tom Daly; Edited by Sara Ledwith)
‘Turning point’: Cities urged to act on lessons learned in pandemic
By Carey L. Biron
WASHINGTON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – From better hygiene to greater awareness of inequality and recognition of “essential workers”, lessons learned during the coronavirus pandemic could be harnessed to improve city life for years to come, city leaders and others said this week.
The health crisis has gutted urban economies, emptied offices and public transport and shuttered communal spaces, but it might mark a watershed as cities seek to get back on their feet, the annual CityLab global summit heard.
“One of the big headlines coming out of the pandemic is that the things we thought were impossible before are actually possible and really absolutely necessary,” Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot told the three-day event, this year held virtually.
COVID-19 has laid bare “a lot of the economic fault lines around race, around class, gender and inequalities that people believed were intractable – too big to actually solve,” Lightfoot said.
In the United States, the pandemic’s economic effects have taken a far heavier toll on Black and Hispanic families, while federal data from December showed women have been disproportionately affected by job losses.
“The crises we face have made clear the inequity and injustice that persist,” U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris told the event. “We want our cities and countries to thrive, not just survive.”
There are hopeful signs, several participants said.
The pandemic creates an opening to tackle issues exposed over the past year, such as the financial struggles of low-paid workers and their lack of social protection, said Ai-jen Poo, executive director of the National Domestic Workers Alliance.
“Now we all see that some of the work that was least visible to us is actually essential – to our safety, health and our well-being,” Poo said.
She noted advances made amid the pandemic for domestic workers, most of whom are women and from minorities, including a new “bill of rights” in Philadelphia and a push in Chicago to ensure fair wages, time off and safe workplaces.
Such opportunities are not limited to rich countries, said Reuben Abraham, chief executive of the IDFC Foundation and IDFC Institute in Mumbai, suggesting the pandemic could be a “turning point” for cities in the developing world.
“Is there a way for us to embed the good behaviours that we’ve learned during COVID?” he said, noting the possibility of addressing “crowding” in cities through land use management, zoning and the provision of affordable housing.
Diseases such as cholera and typhoid have dropped substantially in Mumbai due to COVID-related hygiene practices such as hand-washing, Abraham said, while the wearing of face masks has had a significant effect on tuberculosis.
“(The pandemic) has been a disaster for all of us,” he said. “But if we do the right thing now, net-net we end up with a positive outcome.”
(Reporting by Carey L. Biron @clbtea; Editing by Helen Popper. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers the lives of people around the world who struggle to live freely or fairly. Visit http://news.trust.org)
Spain’s jobless hit four million for first time in five years as pandemic curbs bite
By Nathan Allen and Belén Carreño
MADRID (Reuters) – The number of jobless people in Spain rose above 4 million for the first time in five years in February, official data showed on Tuesday, as COVID-19 restrictions ravage the ailing economy.
Since the onset of the pandemic, Spain has lost more than 400,000 jobs, around two-thirds of them in the hospitality sector, which has struggled with limits on opening hours and capacity as well as an 80% slump in international tourism.
Jobless claims rose by 1.12% from a month earlier, or by 44,436 people to 4,008,789, Labour Ministry data showed, the fifth consecutive monthly increase in unemployment.
That number was 23.5% higher than in February 2020, the last month before the pandemic took hold in Spain.
“The rise in unemployment, caused by the third wave, is bad news, reflecting the structural flaws of the labour market that are accentuated by the pandemic,” Labour Minister Yolanda Diaz tweeted.
Restrictions vary sharply from region to region in Spain, with some shutting down all hospitality businesses, though Madrid has taken a particularly relaxed approach and kept bars and restaurants open.
A total of 30,211 positions were lost over the month, seasonally adjusted data from the Social Security Ministry showed. It was the first month more positions were closed than created since Spain emerged from its strict first-wave lockdown in May.
Still, the number of people supported by Spain’s ERTE furlough scheme across Spain fell by nearly 29,000 to 899,383 in February.
“These figures have remained more or less stable since September, indicating that the second and third waves of the pandemic have had a much smaller effect than the first in this regard,” the ministry said in a statement.
Hotels, bars and restaurants and air travel are the sectors with the highest proportion of furloughed workers, it added.
Tourism dependent regions like the Canary and Balearic Islands have been particularly hard hit, with the workforce contracting by more than 6% since last February in both archipelagos.
The last time the number of jobless in Spain hit 4 million was in April 2016.
(Reporting by Anita Kobylinska, Nathan Allen and Belén Carreño, Editing by Inti Landauro, Kirsten Donovan and Philippa Fletcher)
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Mining magnets: Arctic island finds green power can be a curse
By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Eric Onstad COPENHAGEN (Reuters) – In the tenth century, Erik the Red, a Viking from Iceland,...
‘Turning point’: Cities urged to act on lessons learned in pandemic
By Carey L. Biron WASHINGTON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – From better hygiene to greater awareness of inequality and recognition of...