US strike on Venezuela to embolden China's territorial claims, Taiwan attack unlikely, analysts say

By Brenda Goh and Laurie Chen

SHANGHAI/BEIJING, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. attack on Venezuela will embolden China to strengthen its territorial claims over areas such as Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea but will not hasten any potential invasion of Taiwan, analysts said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's considerations about Taiwan and his timeline are separate from the situation in Latin America, influenced more by China's domestic situation than by U.S. actions, they said.

Still, analysts said, President Donald Trump's audacious attack on Saturday, capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, hands China an unexpected opportunity that Beijing will likely use in the near term to amplify criticism of Washington and bolster its own standing on the international stage.

Further out, Beijing could leverage Trump's move to defend its stance against the U.S. on territorial issues including Taiwan, Tibet and islands in the East and South China seas.

'CHEAP AMMUNITION' FOR A CHINA PUSHBACK

"Washington's consistent, long-standing arguments are always that the Chinese actions are violating international law but they are now damaging that," said William Yang, an analyst at International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based NGO.

"It's really creating a lot of openings and cheap ammunition for the Chinese to push back against the U.S. in the future."

China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own province - an assertion the island's government rejects - and claims almost all of the South China Sea, a position that puts it at odds with several Southeast Asian nations that also claim parts of the vital trade route.

China's foreign ministry and Taiwan Affairs Office, and Taiwan's presidential office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Beijing condemned Trump's strike on Venezuela, saying it violated international law and threatened peace and security in Latin America. It has demanded the U.S. release Maduro and his wife, who are being detained in New York awaiting trial.

Hours before his capture, Maduro met with a high-level Chinese delegation in Caracas, according to photos he posted on his Instagram page.

The Chinese foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the whereabouts of the delegation, which included China's special representative for Latin American and Caribbean affairs, Qiu Xiaoqi.

On Sunday China's official Xinhua news agency called the U.S. attack "naked hegemonic behaviour."

"The US invasion has made everyone see more and more the fact that the so-called 'rules-based international order' in the mouth of the United States is actually just a 'predatory order based on US interests'," state-run Xinhua news agency said.

'CHINA ISN'T THE U.S., TAIWAN ISN'T VENEZUELA'

Taiwan, in particular, has been facing growing pressure from Beijing. China last week encircled the island in its most extensive war games to date, showcasing Beijing's ability to cut off the island from outside support in a conflict.

But analysts said they did not expect China to capitalise on the Venezuelan situation to escalate that into an attack anytime soon.

"Taking over Taiwan depends on China's developing but still insufficient capability rather than what Trump did in a distant continent," said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society, said China sees Taiwan as an internal affair and so was unlikely to cite U.S. actions against Venezuela as precedent for any cross-strait military strikes.

"Beijing will want a clear contrast with Washington to trumpet its claims to stand for peace, development and moral leadership," Thomas said. "Xi does not care about Venezuela more than he cares about China. He'll be hoping that it turns into a quagmire for the United States."

Wang Ting-yu, a senior lawmaker from Taiwan’s ruling party who sits on the parliament’s foreign affairs and defence committee, rejected the idea that China might follow the U.S. example and strike Taiwan.

"China has never lacked hostility toward Taiwan, but it genuinely lacks the feasible means," Wang posted on Facebook. "China is not the United States, and Taiwan is certainly not Venezuela. If China could actually pull it off, it would have done so long ago!"

Still, the situation amplifies risks for Taiwan and could press Taipei to seek more favour from the Trump administration, some observers said.

On China's Weibo social media platform, discussions of the U.S. attack trended heavily on Sunday, with several users saying Beijing should learn from what Trump did.

Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said he expected Taiwan's government to express lightly worded support for American action on Venezuela. Taiwan has not yet made any statement.

"What I do think Trump's actions could do is to help Xi Jinping's narrative in the future to create more justification for action against Taiwan," he said.

(Reporting by Brenda Goh in Shanghai and Laurie Chen in Beijing; Additional reporting by Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard in Taipei)