Finance
UBS lifts forecast for big tech bond sales this year
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on February 18, 2026
3 min readLast updated: February 18, 2026
Quick Summary
UBS raises its 2026 U.S. tech bond sales forecast to $360 billion due to increased capex by big tech firms, while cutting leveraged loan forecasts amid AI disruption concerns.
UBS Raises U.S. Tech Bond Sales Forecast Amid Increased Spending
UBS's Updated Forecast for Tech Bond Sales
By Lucy Raitano
Impact of Increased Capital Expenditure
LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) - UBS lifted its 2026 forecasts for U.S. tech investment grade bond sales on Wednesday, pointing to rising spending by big tech firms, while cutting its forecast for leveraged loans on expectations that AI-related disruption could curb supply.
Changes in Leveraged Loans Forecast
Several megacap tech companies including Meta, Amazon and Alphabet have announced big increases to their capital expenditure plans during the latest earnings season.
Global Bond Market Trends
After years of outsized gains, big tech stocks, meanwhile, have fallen in 2026, as investors question whether heavy AI spending will generate sufficient returns to warrant lofty valuations.
UBS's global credit team in a note raised its U.S. investment grade tech issuance forecast to $360 billion from $300 billion.
That takes UBS's overall forecast for U.S. investment grade debt issuance from $1.725 trillion to $1.8 trillion this year, with tech accounting for a fifth of that.
It also cut its U.S. leveraged loans forecast to $360 billion from $450 billion.
HYPERSCALER CAPEX TO OUTPACE BANK'S PREVIOUS FORECASTS
If recently announced capex increases are realised, UBS sees aggregate capex spending by so-called hyperscalers approaching $770 billion for 2026 - around 23% higher than the bank's previous expectations.
Hyperscaler public debt issuance, UBS said, could increase by an additional $40 billion to $50 billion to as much as $240 billion.
UBS also expects more non-U.S. dollar supply in the tech sector versus previous years. Last week, Alphabet tapped the sterling and Swiss franc markets as part of a $31.51 billion global bond raise.
"Alphabet’s recent CHF (Swiss franc) and GBP (sterling) bond deals imply that U.S. tech companies will continue to look globally to fund capex," UBS analysts said in the note.
Late 2025 saw big tech firms shift to tapping debt markets to fund AI data centres, leading to a surge in issuance across a range of debt markets.
In recent weeks, concerns over how powerful AI models might disrupt traditional business models have also proliferated through markets.
UBS is lowering its leveraged loan issuance forecast on an expectation that disruption created by AI is most underpriced in leveraged loans (LL) and private credit markets. Potentially wider spreads in the LL space due to higher disruption risk could hit refinancing activity, says UBS.
(Reporting by Lucy Raitano; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Joe Bavier)
Key Takeaways
- •UBS raises U.S. tech bond sales forecast to $360 billion.
- •Big tech firms increase capital expenditure plans.
- •AI disruption impacts leveraged loan forecasts.
- •Hyperscaler capex expected to reach $770 billion.
- •Alphabet taps global bond markets for funding.
Frequently Asked Questions about UBS lifts forecast for big tech bond sales this year
1What is an investment grade bond?
An investment grade bond is a bond that has a relatively low risk of default, typically rated BBB- or higher by credit rating agencies. These bonds are considered safer investments compared to lower-rated bonds.
2What are leveraged loans?
Leveraged loans are loans extended to companies or individuals that already have considerable amounts of debt. These loans typically have higher interest rates due to the increased risk of default.
3What is capital expenditure?
Capital expenditure (capex) refers to funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, buildings, or equipment. It is an important indicator of a company's investment in its growth.
4What is a bond market?
The bond market is a financial market where participants can issue new debt or buy and sell existing debt securities, primarily bonds. It is a key component of the global financial system.
5What is corporate debt?
Corporate debt refers to the money that a company borrows through various means, such as bonds or loans, to finance its operations, expansion, or other needs. It is a common way for companies to raise capital.
