The cracks in the global food crisis are beginning to bite

By Maddy Haughton-Boakes, Campaigns Adviser, Changing Markets Foundation

The global food system is under pressure. Across the world, a “perfect storm” of now well-documented challenges is threatening the global industry – including the soaring costs of animal feed, fertiliser and fuel; increasing labour shortages; irregular and extreme weather patterns; and near-constant supply chain disruption.

Long in the making, these challenges have been exacerbated by the global Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has cut off a major food producing region from the global market. While the food system could potentially deal with a single disruptive event, the cumulative effect of multiple disruptions combined with additional pressure from climate change is set to create a major food crisis.

But the answer may be hidden in plain sight. Agriculture is uniquely dependant on stable climate conditions and yet it is responsible for 37% of total global emissions. The lion’s share of this (57%) comes from animal agriculture, which is even more vulnerable to climate disruptions, because it can affect animals directly and the production of their feed. Ironically, under a business-as-usual scenario, animal products will account for 49% of the total GHG emissions budget for 1.5 degree by 2030,[i] which means that reducing the climate impacts of this sector is absolutely crucial for climate mitigation.

If we can cut down on livestock agriculture – the single largest source of methane, responsible for around 32% of anthropogenic methane emissions[ii] – there is potential for a transformative impact. This is especially true since methane, unlike carbon, is a short-lived and potent climate pollutant, which means that rapid cuts in methane emissions will have an immediate impact on temperature increase.

As we are seeing, the impacts of climate change on our food system are not years away – they are here today. As extreme weather events multiply and persistent drought ravages across the globe, rising prices and increasing uncertainty are being felt across the globe by farmers as well as the end-consumers. The most recent shocks to the food system were triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the destabilisation of one of the world’s major grain-producing region – known as a ‘breadbasket’. This was then amplified by crucial harvests in other ‘breadbaskets’ such as in India and China being struck by both droughts and increases in unpredictable rainfall.[iii]

This year’s instability is just one example of how climate change is playing out as a threat multiplier in a globalised, highly concentrated food system – and why urgent change is needed.

The missing piece of the puzzle

One piece of the puzzle that is so often overlooked in the current food crisis debates is the inefficiency surrounding overproduction of meat and dairy. Meat and dairy is arguably one of the most vulnerable industries facing the double hit of the direct climate impact on animals, which are increasingly affected by heat and water stress, as well as the repeated failures in production of feed. All of this is leading to rising costs and reduction in profitability of the sector.

Even with the current global temperature increase of 1.2°C since pre-industrial levels, we are witnessing thousands of cattle deaths in Kansas this summer. This is set to increase as a recent peer reviewed study found that heat stress alone can lead to significant production losses. It revealed that the global meat and dairy sector can see annual losses between US$15 billion (for low emissions scenario) and US$40 billion (for high emissions scenario) by the end of the century.[iv]

Changing weather patterns are also impacting feed production across the globe. Record temperatures and water shortages across Europe this year prompted some farmers to use their winter feed stocks as summer crops failed, [v] meanwhile pastures across most of Europe were negatively impacted by the droughts[vi] and farmers began considering keeping their farmed animals inside during summary days.[vii]

And yet, transformation of the food system, and particularly reductions in meat and dairy emissions remain a crucial untapped solution to climate change and it is still something that policy-makers refuse to touch. The recent national food strategy in the UK, despite clear recommendations from advisors to reduce meat consumption by 30% over ten years, failed to address this. The agricultural sector – including the big agri-businesses, investors, supermarkets and policy makers – need to prioritise transformation or remain stranded in a vicious cycle of climate impacts.

A recent Changing Markets survey showed that global investors at least are aware of the risks that climate change poses for investments in meat and dairy. In fact, most (79%) expect climate change to have a ‘significant’ or ‘moderate’ impact on investment opportunities in the meat and dairy sector, with firms risking stranded assets due to poor adaptation and mitigation plans.[viii]

But, despite this knowledge, investors and the wider industry remain gripped by inertia. These findings and the current food crisis should act as a wakeup call for investors to push for better climate adaptation and mitigation plans from the food companies they invest in. As a first step on mitigation, investors should ensure that the investees have science-based climate targets and transparent reporting in place. Given the urgency to reduce methane, it is of crucial importance that investees also put in place specific methane action plans and disclose investments into methane and GHG mitigation measures.

Reducing methane from meat and dairy will require a mix of technical measures and a reduction in livestock numbers. Governments seem much keener on the first and ignoring the huge opportunity that would come from the second, especially in the Global North, where people tend to overconsume animal products. Our recent study showed that in the EU, reducing consumption of meat and dairy in line with government health recommendations could reduce methane emissions from agriculture between 29 and 37%.[ix]

Turning off the blowtorch of methane buys us time, avoiding catastrophic tipping points whilst we transition towards low carbon economies. While the need to reduce methane adds urgency to the need to transition to more sustainable, resilient and lower emissions food system, we should not overlook the health benefits of doing so. Methane is a precursor of ground ozone, a damaging air pollutant, as a result, implementing available methane-mitigation measures could prevent 250,000 premature deaths and 26 million tonnes of crop losses every year.[x] Reducing consumption of animal products will also result in better public health as overconsumption of animal products, particularly processed or red meat, is associated with obesity and an increased risk of non-communicable diseases such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes[xi], as well as certain types of cancer (including stomach, colon and prostate cancers).[xii] [xiii]

Prioritising transformation is essential

The war in Ukraine and resulting food crisis has not changed the fundamentals, it has shown that the current food system – one built on monocultures, industrial farming and responsible for unnecessarily high emissions- is broken and extremely vulnerable to disruptions. The climate crisis is happening faster and with more intensity than predicted by climate models. This should be a wake-up call to transition away from diets heavy on meat and dairy and towards better food production practices, such as agroecology.

As the cracks in the global food system begin to bite, we cannot afford to overlook the benefits that reducing meat and dairy production would bring – from numerous health benefits to reduced carbon and methane emissions, more land to produce food for direct human consumption and reduced risk of stranded assets for investors. The time for action is now and the message to the industry players is clear – prioritise transformation rather than remain stranded in a vicious cycle.

[i] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(19)30245-1/fulltext

[ii] https://www.unep.org/resources/report/global-methane-assessment-benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions

[iii] Keith Bradsher 2022 War and Weather Sent Food Prices Soaring. Now, China’s Harvest Is Uncertain. The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/business/china-wheat-food-prices-inflation.html

[iv] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00002-X/fulltext#seccestitle10

[v] https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2022/08/15/Extreme-weather-ravaging-the-UK-challenges-food-industry

[vi] https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/22/JRC127964_01.pdf

[vii] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/19/siestas-for-cows-uk-farmers-seek-new-ways-for-cattle-to-beat-the-heat

[viii] https://changingmarkets.org/portfolio/growing-the-good/

[ix] http://changingmarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/CM-REPORT-ENG-HIGH-STEAKS.pdf

[x] https://www.wri.org/insights/methane-gas-emissions-climate-change

[xi] https://www.diabetes.org.uk/resources-s3/2017-11/diabetes%20uk%20cost%20of%20diabetes%20report.pdf

[xii] https://www.iarc.fr/en/media-centre/pr/2015/pdfs/pr240_E.pdf.

[xiii] https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-01922-9