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Sterling set for small weekly rise as investors focus on rate hike chances
Published by Jessica Weisman-Pitts
Posted on October 29, 2021
3 min readLast updated: January 29, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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Published by Jessica Weisman-Pitts
Posted on October 29, 2021
3 min readLast updated: January 29, 2026
Sterling is set for a small weekly gain as investors focus on the Bank of England's potential rate hike amid inflation and Brexit concerns.
By Elizabeth Howcroft
LONDON(Reuters) -Sterling recovered some of the previous session’s losses against the euro on Friday but was steady against the dollar, set for a small weekly gain as market attention focused on the possibility of a BOE-BANKS-e57d1808-2900-42bd-832f-d8f2baa8f262>Bank of England rate hike next week.
The British currency fell against the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank meeting kept investors expecting a rate hike in 2022 and did not calm their fears about surging inflation, leading to a jump in euro zone bond yields and a stronger euro.
But the pound went some way to reversing that move in early trading on Friday as the euro slipped. The pair changed hands at 84.46 pence per euro at 1147 GMT, with the pound around 0.3% stronger on the day. It was on track for a weekly gain of around 0.2%.
Versus the dollar, sterling was little changed at $1.3792, on track for a weekly gain of 0.3%.
The pound’s moves this week have been driven by speculation over whether BOE-BANKS-e57d1808-2900-42bd-832f-d8f2baa8f262>the BOE-BANKS-e57d1808-2900-42bd-832f-d8f2baa8f262>Bank of England will hike rates at its meeting on Nov. 4, or whether concerns about the possible longer-term hit to economic growth stemming from supply chain disruptions and Brexit will cause the bank to hold back.
A long-running dispute between France and Britain over post-Brexit fishing rights flared up this week, with Britain threatening to board French fishing boats and France standing by a plan to impose sanctions on British vessels.
Markets were pricing in a 62% chance of a hike at next week’s meeting, up from a 56% chance in the previous session, according to data from CME.
“Our suspicion is that the pound should find some support as we approach Thursday’s BoE meeting, and with a lot of positives in the price for the EUR, the 0.8500 resistance should hold for now,” wrote ING FX strategists in a note to clients.
Deutsche Bank strategists said in a client note on Friday that they had changed their view and now expect the BoE to deliver its first post-pandemic rate hike at next week’s meeting.
“Ultimately, we think a weaker supply outlook combined with surging and stickier inflation will provide the majority of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) enough ammunition to pull the trigger on a first rate move,” Deutsche Bank said.
The British public’s expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to the highest since 2008 this month, Citi said earlier this week, based on its monthly survey with pollsters YouGov.
A weekly auction of British government six-month Treasury bills – a form of short-term debt – saw the highest yield since April 2020.
(Reporting by Elizabeth HowcroftEditing by Mark Heinrich and Susan Fenton)
The article discusses Sterling's weekly performance and the potential for a Bank of England rate hike.
Brexit has led to disputes like the UK-France fishing rights issue, impacting market sentiment.
Inflation expectations have risen, with the British public anticipating the highest rate since 2008.
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