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Johnson’s weakness pins Britain’s pound near 3-week lows
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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By Saikat Chatterjee and Joice Alves
LONDON (Reuters) -Sterling fell to a near three-week low against a resurgent U.S. dollar on Tuesday, with investors on edge a day after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson survived a confidence vote that left him politically weakened.
Johnson won the vote by 211 votes to 148, seeing off a challenge to his leadership brought by lawmakers from his Conservative party. But the larger than anticipated rebellion leaves him battling to win back the confidence of his colleagues and the public.
Heightened political uncertainty dealt sterling, one of this year’s worst performing major currencies, a fresh blow.
The British currency fell 0.73% to its lowest level since May 19 at $1.2433 before trimming losses. It was last down 0.2% at $1.2502, having risen on Monday before the vote.
Against the euro, the pound weakened by 0.1% to 85.48 pence.
“The relief rally that lifted sterling yesterday was built around the hope that the confidence vote could draw a line under political distractions and allow the government to get on with the job in hand,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank in London.
“Instead, the scale of the rebellion will ensure a cloud remains over Johnson’s future. This suggests that political distractions remain in place and his leadership could again be tested ahead of the 2024 general election,” she added.
The currency has fallen 7.5% against a resurgent dollar this year, weighed down by Britain’s dismal growth outlook, which is casting doubt on the trajectory for interest rate rises by the Bank of England.
Reflecting the greater political uncertainty, expected swings in the British pound over a one-week and one-month period edged higher.
“The PM has survived the no confidence vote, but the number of Conservatives MPs (Members of Parliament) who voted against him is substantial enough to weaken his position further,” said Frederique Carrier, head of investment strategy for the British Isles and Asia at RBC Wealth Management.
The 10-year gilt yield rose to its highest level since 2014 at 2.265%, while London-listed shares slipped 0.1% with sentiment also hit by a survey showing British shoppers cut their spending in May by the most since the country was in a coronavirus lockdown in early 2021.
ING analysts said markets were overpricing the impact of the political headlines on the UK economy, adding that they expected slowing growth and Bank of England’s policy to be the central themes for sterling “over the coming days”.
“Downside risks to the pound persist, but they are not strictly linked to the recent political developments,” they told clients.
(Reporting by Saikat Chatterjee and Joice Alves; Editing by Bradley Perret, Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Raissa Kasolowsky)
Currency hedging is a financial strategy used to protect against the risk of currency fluctuations. It involves using financial instruments or market strategies to offset potential losses in currency exchange rates.
GBP stands for Great British Pound, which is the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is one of the world's major currencies and is often referred to as 'pound sterling'.
Foreign currency refers to any currency that is not the domestic currency of a specific country. It is used in international trade and investment, and its value can fluctuate based on market conditions.
Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money or the return on savings, expressed as a percentage. They are a key factor in economic activity and influence inflation and currency values.
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