Trump Withdraws Tariff Threat, Signals Deal Framework for Greenland

Market Reaction to Tariff Withdrawal

Jan 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on a number of nations for their stance on Greenland, saying he had reached the outlines of a deal with NATO on the island's future.

Investor Insights

"Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st," Trump wrote on Truth Social after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Davos. He did not give details of the deal.

Market Performance

MARKET REACTION

Future Outlook

*U.S. stocks sharply extended gains; S&P last up 1.4%

*U.S. Treasury yields extend fall; 10-year yield last down 4.2 basis points at 4.255%

*U.S. dollar index last up 0.1% at 98.79

MATTHEW SMART, DIRECTOR OF FINANCIAL PLANNING AND PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS, WWM INVESTMENTS IN CHICAGO, IL

“Markets aren’t rallying because they suddenly understand the endgame in Greenland. They’re rallying because uncertainty just got priced out. The signal from Donald Trump coming out of Davos is coordination, not confrontation, and that matters. Pulling back near-term tariffs while opening a framework with NATO around Greenland tells investors this is shifting from headline risk to negotiation risk. 

“Historically, markets are very comfortable with negotiation risk. From an investment perspective, this fits the broader pattern we’ve seen time and again, aggressive positioning to gain leverage, followed by deal architecture that lowers the probability of policy shock. When you reduce the odds of a sudden trade or geopolitical escalation, risk assets tend to breathe easier, and today’s price action reflects exactly that.”

ART HOGAN, STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT, BOSTON:

“Yesterday was like April all over again, just as we thought we were close to the exits on this very long tariff threat journey. So today’s retracement of most of the selling that we saw yesterday makes sense: we got the positive news that Trump wouldn’t use the military to invade Greenland, which got the ball rolling. Then came the Truth Social Post that a deal of some kind was struck. So the biggest headwinds have been removed, at least in emotional impact on the market. But what we need now is a constant flow of fundamental good news in the shape of better earnings. Hopefully next week we’ll see more of that from a wider array of S&P 500 companies, and not have to rely on random Truth Social posts for good news.”

SAHAK MANUELIAN, MANAGING DIRECTOR FOR GLOBAL EQUITIES TRADING AT WEDBUSH SECURITIES, PASADENA, CA:

"President Trump came out and said that he would not be imposing tariffs on February 1st and that there's some framework of a future deal that will be coming together so markets went up on that news."

"With the build up over Greenland in the last few days and the proposed tariffs for February 1 investors were certainly worried and there was also a lot of angst about whether or not he'd take military action, which he shot down earlier this morning when he was speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos."

KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO:

“The President’s apparent climbdown should take some already-discounted tail risks off the table in markets... However, it is important to note that the episode shocked investors out of their early-year complacency, and has provided a valuable reminder of the risks still underpinning global market valuations.”

MICHAEL BROWN, SENIOR RESEARCH STRATEGIST, PEPPERSTONE, LONDON

“Very predictable, I suppose, as we had been viewing this as an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ situation all along.”

“Now that geopolitical risk has been dialed down by many notches, I’d expect that participants will re-focus on what remains a solid equity bull case, as seen by dip buyers already stepping in, while risks to the USD also tilt to the upside, as we again focus on the US macro outlook, where risks tilt firmly to the upside.”

“Frankly, the specifics of the ‘deal framework’ don’t really matter, just that there shan’t be an escalation, and that tariffs won’t happen, is enough to soothe any and all worries that investors had had.”

MATT WELLER, GLOBAL HEAD OF MARKET RESEARCH AT STONEX, GRAND RAPIDS, MICHIGAN

"We're seeing a bit of a relief rally in markets. Specifically on the FX front, the dollar is recovering, though notably still down from where it opened the week."

"I really do think the details perhaps are not as relevant, even perhaps if they never come to light. The near-term crisis appears to be behind us, and we'll wait to see what crops up next to drive sentiment."

(Compiled by Michelle Price and Megan Davies )