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Factbox-What to expect in 2024: Forecasts for GDP, inflation and other assets
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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(Reuters) -Global growth will likely slow this year and major central banks across the globe have indicated interest rate cuts this year.
(Reuters) -Global growth will likely slow this year and major central banks across the globe have indicated interest rate cuts this year.
Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.8% 5.0% 0.7% 0.6% 6.6%
Sachs
3.1%
Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS Global 2.6% 1.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 6.2%
Wealth
Management*
Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%
J.P.Morgan 2.2% 1.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.3% 5.7%
BofA Global 4.8% 0.3% 5.7%
Research 0.4%
2.9% 2.7%
Deutsche 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% 6.0%
Bank
Citigroup 1.9% 1.0% 4.6% -0.2% 0.1% 6.3%
HSBC 4.9% 0.5%
2.6% 2.3% 0.4% 6.3%
UBS Global 3.0% 2.2% 4.6% 0.6% – –
Research*
—-
U.S. INFLATION
U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in March as Americans continued to pay more for gasoline and rental housing, leading financial markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until September.
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.50%
2.5%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70%
Wells Fargo 2.60%
Investment 3.0%
Institute
Barclays 2.70% 2.4%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50%
BofA Global 2.50%
Research 3.5%
Deutsche Bank 2.10%
Citigroup 2.0% 3.0%
HSBC
3.4%
—–
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C
target yield NY
target
Goldman Sachs 5,200 4.00% 1.12 145 7.05
Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5
UBS Global 5,000 3.50% 1.12 140 7.00
Wealth
Management*
Wells Fargo 4.25-4.75% 1.06-1.10
Investment 5,100-5,300
Institute 156-160
Barclays 5,300 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.25
BofA Global 5,400 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90
Research
Deutsche Bank 5,100 4.10% 1.10 135
Citigroup 5,100 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25
HSBC 5,400 3.00% 1.05 7.10
145
Oppenheimer
5,500
UBS Global 5,400 3.6% 1.12 140 7.00
Research*
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Sriraj Kalluvila, Paul Simao, Arun Koyyur, Anil D’Silva and Shounak Dasgupta)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total economic output of a country. It represents the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period.
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. It is typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Producer Price Index (PPI).
The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. It regulates the U.S. monetary and financial system, aiming to promote maximum employment and stable prices.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is a key indicator of U.S. equities.
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