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Dollar mostly flat as traders await key U.S. data
Global Banking & Finance Review®
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By Herbert Lash
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar traded little changed against the euro and other trading currencies on Thursday, though sterling held on to gains after Boris Johnson said he was quitting as British prime minister.
Investors are waiting for U.S. jobs data on Friday and consumer price data next week that should signal the pace of inflation and whether the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively hike interest rates when policymakers meet on July 26-27.
“What’s being priced into the July Fed meeting is predicated on that inflation print coming in reasonably elevated. We suspect that it will,” said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
The strength of non-farm payrolls on Friday should also point to how fast wages are increasing, while the U.S. central bank doesn’t appear to be as encumbered as other major central banks, he said.
“To us that suggests the U.S. dollar is still going to be the currency that outperforms,” Rai said.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six counterparts, fell 0.047% after Wednesday’s peak of 107.27, a level not seen since late 2002. The euro was down 0.07% to $1.0176 after sliding to a two-decade low of 1.01615 on Wednesday.
Investors are grappling with the risks of a recession and whether interest rate hikes will be paused as global demand is under pressure.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates seasonally adjusted GDP growth on an annual basis in the second quarter was -2.1%.
Implied volatility remains near its highest levels since late March 2020 at 11.2%, reflecting a nervous market as investors contemplate parity between the euro and dollar.
“Parity is within reach, and one can expect the market to want to see it now,” said Moritz Paysen, currency and rates advisor at Berenberg.
According to George Saravelos, global head of forex research at Deutsche Bank, “if Europe and the U.S. slip-slide into a recession in Q3 while the Fed is still hiking rates, these levels (0.95-0.97 in EUR/USD) could well be reached.”
Commodity-linked currencies strengthened as copper prices climbed. Some investors returned to the market on Thursday after heightened recession fears sent the red metal to its lowest level in nearly 20 months.
The Australian dollar rose 0.7% to 0.6830 against the dollar after recently hitting its lowest level since June 2020 at 0.6762.
GRAPHIC: Australian dollar https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbvgnxqlzpq/Pasted%20image%201657190411529.png
The Swiss Franc eased from its seven-year high, with the dollar up 0.2% at 0.9727.
Sterling rose after Johnson said he would resign. It was last up 0.62% at $1.1993.
Analysts said the pound was mostly moving on broader economic concerns about a global recession, rather than Britain’s political turmoil.
Bitcoin last rose 0.86% to $20,723.85.
Currency bid prices at 10:17AM (1417 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index 107.0000 107.0600 -0.05% 11.851% +107.1600 +106.7000
Euro/Dollar $1.0176 $1.0183 -0.07% -10.49% +$1.0221 +$1.0165
Dollar/Yen 135.7600 135.9000 -0.10% +17.94% +136.2200 +135.5500
Euro/Yen 138.14 138.39 -0.18% +6.00% +139.0700 +138.0800
Dollar/Swiss 0.9727 0.9710 +0.20% +6.65% +0.9741 +0.9685
Sterling/Dollar $1.1993 $1.1922 +0.62% -11.31% +$1.2023 +$1.1912
Dollar/Canadian 1.3004 1.3036 -0.24% +2.86% +1.3055 +1.2980
Aussie/Dollar $0.6830 $0.6783 +0.70% -6.03% +$0.6848 +$0.6765
Euro/Swiss 0.9897 0.9883 +0.14% -4.55% +0.9931 +0.9875
Euro/Sterling 0.8484 0.8536 -0.61% +1.00% +0.8554 +0.8482
NZ $0.6179 $0.6147 +0.50% -9.74% +$0.6195 +$0.6144
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway 10.1015 10.1300 +0.10% +15.10% +10.1505 +10.0835
Euro/Norway 10.2824 10.3224 -0.39% +2.69% +10.3434 +10.2747
Dollar/Sweden 10.5414 10.5327 +0.05% +16.89% +10.5644 +10.4938
Euro/Sweden 10.7282 10.7230 +0.05% +4.83% +10.7483 +10.7165
(Reporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Angus MacSwan, Tomasz Janowski and Paul Simao)
The dollar index measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies, providing an indication of the dollar's strength in the foreign exchange market.
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. It is typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity across the economy lasting longer than a few months, typically visible in GDP, income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales.
Currency hedging is a risk management strategy used to protect against fluctuations in exchange rates by taking an offsetting position in a related currency.
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