China Retail Disappoints Ahead of Busy Central Bank Week

By Wayne Cole and Alun John

SYDNEY/LONDON (Reuters) -Shares around the world nudged lower on Monday on soft economic numbers from China and Europe and as surging bond yields challenged equity valuations, kicking off a week packed with central bank meetings and major economic data.

Figures from China showed retail sales rose just 3.0% in November, compared with a year earlier, well below market forecasts of 4.6%, in a sign much more aggressive stimulus was needed. Industrial production was much as expected, while house prices were still falling, though at a slower pace.

China’s blue chip index eased 0.5%, having dropped more than 2% last Friday.

Over the weekend, an official at China’s central bank said it had room to further cut the reserve requirement ratio, dictating how much cash banks must hold as reserves, though credit numbers out last week showed past easing had done little to boost borrowing.

European stocks also nudged down, off 0.36%, as investors processed data that showed euro zone business activity contracted in December, but by less than it did the previous month.

That left MSCI’s world share index a fraction lower, though U.S. share futures ticked up.

“There are three things to watch this week. First, the economic signals, and we don’t have a change of pattern – Europe is a bit underwhelming and we continue to see U.S. outperformance,” said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.

“Then there is the Fed. Like consensus we expect a cut this week, but we expect a slightly higher terminal rate, and the final thing we are monitoring is all the risks that relate to politics or geopolitics – we continue to watch the situation in France and South Korea.”

Ratings agency Moody’s unexpectedly downgraded France on Friday a few hours after French President Emmanuel Macron appointed veteran centrist Francois Bayrou as the country’s fourth prime minister in a year.

French government bonds slightly underperformed German bunds in early trading Monday. [GVD/EUR]

Political uncertainty was also clouding South Korea, where the finance ministry promised to support markets after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Stocks in Seoul and the won were both down slightly on Monday but in line with Asian peers. [.KS]

EYEING CENTRAL BANKS

The big events of the week are central bank meetings, and markets show rate-setters in the United States and Sweden are expected to cut, while policymakers in Japan, Britain and Norway are seen holding steady.

The Federal Reserve will lead the pack on Wednesday with markets pricing a 96% probability it will cut rates by 25 basis points to a new range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

More important will be any guidance on future easing, including the “dot plot” forecasts of Fed members for rates over the next couple of years.

Investors have been steadily scaling back expectations of how far rates may fall, in part reflecting solid economic news and speculation President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for tax cuts and tariffs would expand government borrowing while putting upward pressure on inflation.

Futures imply only two more cuts next year and rates bottoming out at around 3.80%, much higher than just a few months ago. That outlook took a heavy toll on the Treasury market last week, where longer-dated yields recorded their largest weekly rise this year. [US/]

Yields on 10-year notes were lower at 4.36%, on Monday having climbed 24 basis points last week alone, and threatening to breach a major bear target at 4.50%.

Bitcoin was also in the spotlight, surging to a record high above $106,000 as it extended gains on bets Trump’s return will usher in a cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory environment.

In currency markets, the dollar has been underpinned by rising yields. That has put the squeeze on several emerging market currencies, forcing intervention in some cases.

The dollar also gained on the yen on Monday to 154, having jumped almost 2.5% last week, while the euro looked wobbly at $1.04962. [FRX/]

Gold was at $2,657 an ounce, and oil prices came off three-week highs, having been supported by expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies. [O/R]

Brent futures were down 54 cents at $73.95 a barrel. [O/R]

(Reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney and Alun John in London; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Kate Mayberry, Lincoln Feast, Alex Richardson and Tomasz Janowski)