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Allianz Trade publishes Global Survey results
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Fragmentation and friendshoring: exporters are scrambling to adapt to the trade war
Fragmentation and friendshoring: exporters are scrambling to adapt to the trade war
Allianz Trade’s exclusive new survey, which took the pulse at the peak of the US trade war (before and after “Liberation Day” on April 2) reveals the toll of the trade war and the coping mechanisms for 4,500 exporters in nine key countries that account for close to 60% of global GDP.
The unpredictability of US tariff policies has increased uncertainty for global businesses, according to the findings of the 2025 Allianz Trade Global Survey released today. Covering 4,500 companies across China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Singapore, Spain, the UK and the US, and conducted in two rounds – before and after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on 2 April – the results reveal a stark shift in expectations for growth, perceptions of risks, especially with regards to payment delays, and diverse strategies to mitigate the effect of the trade war. Even with the advent of bilateral trade deals in recent weeks, the fog of uncertainty isn’t breaking. Some of the relief could prove temporary.
The Allianz Trade Global Survey reveals that close to 60% of firms expect a negative impact from the trade war, and 45% expect export turnover to decline. The impact goes beyond trade volumes: more than one in four firms are considering temporary production halts due to the combination of tariffs and currency volatility, particularly in sectors reliant on imported intermediate goods.
“In sharp contrast to the optimism seen before the April 2 tariff wave, this year’s Global Survey confirms what we are observing across markets: uncertainty and fragmentation are becoming structural. The US ‘Liberation Day’ exposed the vulnerabilities of companies with highly concentrated supply chains and export markets. The numbers speak for themselves: global positive export expectations dropped from 80% to 40% and 42% of companies now expect export turnover to fall between -2% and -10%, compared to just 5% before the April 2 announcement. Despite recent bilateral agreements with the UK and China, we estimate global export losses will reach USD305bn in 2025. Companies are not standing still. Having navigated successive shocks since 2020, they are once again adapting, diversifying partners, reconfiguring logistics, and embedding risk-sharing across the value chain. In today’s trade environment, success depends increasingly on adaptability,” says Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.
The US “Liberation Day” had dealt a strong blow to Chinese and Singaporean exporters, with 82% and 55% of respondents, respectively, anticipating their international activities to be negatively impacted. Precisely, 62% of respondents from China now expect their export turnover to contract between -2% and -10% this year, while 47% of respondents from Singapore shared the same forecast. Even though the recent US-China trade deal may bring some relief, policy uncertainty and still elevated tariff levels continue to weigh. To mitigate such gloomy outlook, 95% of Chinese exporters said that they are planning on or have already identified new export markets, while almost all respondents from Singapore (97%) shared the same strategy.
The temporary relief is likely to encourage companies to keep frontloading until the expiry of the 90-day pauses (12 August for China and 8 July for the rest of the world), as they did at the beginning of the year – 86% of US companies said they had frontloaded shipments from China and the EU before the tariffs kicked in.
Few companies intend to absorb increased costs or cut export prices to maintain market share, especially in the US where more than half of companies plan to raise prices (54%). Because of high uncertainty, sourcing from new markets is likely to continue, being the second most preferred option among ways to mitigate the impact of tariffs, especially in Poland and Spain. Diversifying supply chains and customer bases is an enduring risk mitigation strategy – unsurprising, given that 54% of respondents consider geopolitical and political risks and social unrest among the top three threats to their supply chains. More than one-third of businesses surveyed have already found new markets to export to, while almost two-thirds were planning on doing so.
To keep costs related to customs under control, a majority of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes, including 62% of US companies (facilitated by shipping costs having dropped nearly -50% since early 2025 and lower oil prices - expected to range between 65 USD/bbl and 70 USD/bbl for the remainder of the year).
The Survey also reveals that, regarding trade terms, firms are increasingly putting the responsibility onto their suppliers to manage logistics and costs (including customs) all the way to buyers’ locations. An interesting exception is in the US, where “Cost, Insurance & Freight” (CIF) remains king. Companies also want to share the cost of FX volatility, with the introduction of pricing clauses in contracts to share FX risk with clients and suppliers the preferred option for 59% of them.
The decoupling between the US and China is likely to continue in the medium term despite the 90-day pause in tariffs. US businesses’ intention to export to China halved to 10% after “Liberation Day”, while Chinese firms’ expectations to export to North America collapsed from 15% to 3%. US companies with production in China are increasingly looking for alternatives outside Asia: one-fourth of them are considering Western Europe and another fourth, Latin America.
“Even though the new trade deal brings the US average import tariff rate on China to 39%, down from an eye-watering 103%, this remains much higher than the 13% rate applied before the second Trump administration. Against this backdrop, friendshoring is likely to continue gaining traction: Europe and Latin America are emerging as attractive alternatives for Chinese firms, and European firms are also increasingly interested in exporting to China and Asia: between both surveys, export intentions increased to 36%, and the interest towards the South and Southeast Asian market doubled to 14%. Meanwhile, Latin America is emerging as the winner of rerouting and trade circumvention strategies, with both Chinese and European firms looking to the region for access to the US at a lower cost,” explains Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for Asia Pacific and Trade.
The trade war has hit expectations in payment terms: post-“Liberation Day”, 25% of exporters anticipate payment terms longer by more than 7 days, a surge of +13pps. Nearly half of exporters (48%) anticipate increased non-payment risk — particularly in the US, Italy, and the UK — reflecting the broader deterioration in global trade conditions.
Only 11% of export companies continue to be paid within 30 days, but this figure is notably lower among top exporters like the US, China, and Germany. Approximately 70% of companies receive payments between 30 and 70 days – this figure is slightly higher in the UK (75%), France (73%), Italy (73%), and the US (73%), and varies by sector and company size.
“Larger firms tend to experience longer payment delays, with 26% of surveyed companies having a turnover above EUR5bn facing payment terms exceeding 70 days, compared to 18% for the overall sample average. This suggests that major companies are increasingly taking on the role of an invisible bank for smaller companies. As exporters face longer payment cycles and rising insolvency risks, they are under pressure to pass on costs, source from new markets, or even reconsider their entire international footprint,” concludes Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.
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