Finance
UK firms trim wage expectations but inflation pressures remain
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on January 8, 2026
2 min readLast updated: January 19, 2026
Global Banking & Finance Review®
Company
Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on January 8, 2026
2 min readLast updated: January 19, 2026
UK firms expect 3.7% wage growth from Q4 2025, down 0.1%.
British companies have slightly lowered their expectations for wage growth, now forecasting a 3.7% increase over the 12 months from Q4 2025, according to the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel survey. This marks a minor decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter.
Despite a slight reduction, firms' expectations for their own price inflation remain high at 3.6% for the upcoming year. This marginal decline of 0.1 percentage points reflects ongoing inflationary pressures that continue to challenge the Bank of England's 2% target.
The Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts this year. As Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, notes, the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to proceed with only one more rate cut, given the persistent high wage growth and inflation.
The survey indicates that firms are moving past the uncertainty surrounding finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget announcement. However, with consumer price inflation expected to remain at 3.4%, the economic environment remains challenging. The BoE's recent interest rate cut to 3.75% from 4% in December underscores the delicate balance policymakers must maintain.
According to Reuters, financial markets are anticipating one or two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026. The ongoing high inflation and wage growth rates suggest that the Bank of England will need to carefully navigate its monetary policy to stabilize the economy while addressing inflationary concerns.
In conclusion, while UK firms have slightly lowered their wage growth expectations, inflation pressures persist, influencing the Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rates. The economic outlook remains uncertain, with policymakers balancing growth and inflation control.
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power. It is typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom, responsible for issuing currency, maintaining monetary stability, and overseeing the financial system.
Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money or the return on savings, expressed as a percentage of the amount borrowed or saved. They are influenced by central bank policies.
The Decision Maker Panel is a survey conducted by the Bank of England that gathers insights from businesses about their expectations for the economy, including wage growth and inflation.
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