Trading Day: Big Moves, Ahead of Big Week

Trading Day: Big moves, ahead of big week

ORLANDO, Florida, Jan 26 (Reuters) - World stocks climbed to new highs and gold smashed through the $5,000-an-ounce barrier on Monday, while the dollar's slide gathered pace as investors braced for a deluge of U.S. earnings and a Federal Reserve policy decision this week.

More on that below. In my column today I look into signs that the rumblings of a U.S. productivity boom may be going global. Could all that AI spending be bearing fruit? It's early days, but investors and policymakers alike will be paying close attention.

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

1. Dollar under fire again as investors reassess Trumppolicies, geopolitical risk 2. U.S. rate check masks stiff hurdle to coordinated yenintervention 3. Gold has more room to run as geopolitics, cenbank buyingfuel gains, analysts say 4. 'Battle for the Fed' heats up to challenge rate horizon:Mike Dolan 5. Wall St Week Ahead Fed, big earnings week loom formarkets as global tensions muddy outlook

Today's Key Market Developments

Today's Key Market Moves

* STOCKS: MSCI All Country index hits fresh peak, WallStreet's big three indices post solid gains but Russell 2000falls. Japan stocks down ~2% on yen surge. * SECTORS/SHARES: U.S. tech +0.8%, communications services+1.3%. Consumer discretionaries -0.7%. Focus now turns to bigearnings this week. * FX: Japanese yen extends rally after NY Fed reportedlychecked rates on Friday. Dollar index slumps to 4-month low.Cable, Aussie looking particularly perky. * BONDS: U.S. yields down as much as 3 bps. 2-year auctiongoes well. Long-dated JGB yields fall for 4th day in a row. * COMMODITIES/METALS: Eye-popping rally in precious metalsloses steam. Silver +6% but was up as much as 13%; palladium +1%after being up as much as 8%. Oil slips.

Yen Intervention Speculation

Today's Talking Points

* Yen intervention speculation

After the New York Fed's rare step of checking dollar/yen rates on Friday, speculation is mounting over when, if or how direct yen-buying intervention might follow. The dollar's fall of more than 3% since Friday is pretty substantial, considering no official selling has yet taken place.

There are good reasons why coordinated Japan-U.S. intervention might not happen now. But if Tokyo wants to ensure the yen's recovery from its historic lows is a lasting one, it might have to step in, like it did in late 2022 and again in 2024.

Gold and Silver Prices

* Silver and gold rush

January 26, 2026. A landmark day for gold as it rises above $5,000/oz for the first time, a far cry from the days of the "Washington Agreement" and $250/oz a quarter of a century ago. And if SocGen and others are right, it is heading for $6,000/oz.

Silver's rise is even more staggering, crossing $100/oz on Friday for the first time. It soared as much as 13% on Monday before cooling. But it is still up 15% in the last three trading sessions, and up 35% this year. Supply issues and momentum buying are factors, but the speculative wave of hot money is considerable. The correction could be messy.

Big Tech Earnings Overview

* Big Tech earnings

By some measures, U.S. tech is lagging so far this year, especially the megacaps - the Roundhill "Mag 7" ETF is flat year-to-date while the Russell 2000 is up 8%. Indeed, Raymond James CIO Larry Adam notes that mega-cap tech is having its worst start to a year relative to the S&P 500 since 2010.

But early-year tech underperformance is nothing new or alarming, Adams says. "Big Tech" has bounced back in recent years, and valuations today relative to the rest of the market are the most compelling in years. This week's earnings and guidance from Apple, Microsoft and Meta Platforms will be instructive.

What could move markets tomorrow?

* U.S. consumer confidence (January) * U.S. Treasury auctions $70 billion of 5-year notes * U.S. earnings, including Boeing, UPS, General Motors,UnitedHealth Group, RTX Corporation * U.S. Federal Reserve begins two-day policy meeting * G7 finance ministers hold video conference call

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)