Take Five: The second half

Central banks are front and centre elsewhere, too. The ECB kicks off its bond reinvestment scheme to shield southern Europe’s fragile economies; emerging markets’ policy-tightening spree will continue; and in Australia, a half-point rate rise is expected.

So far so good. Expectations of ECB support helped lower Italy’s 10-year borrowing costs by 100 bps since mid-June, while its yield premium over Germany is just above 200 bps, tumbling from a perceived 250 bps danger line hit two weeks ago.

Traders have dialled down bets on where rates might peak, enabling a tentative equity rally. So, for some on Wall Street, a weaker jobs print may end up being good news.